MLB Fantasy Prospects

Cuban Free Agent Jose Julio Ruiz (1B/OF) Works Out for Texas Rangers

by Managing Editor, Stephen Sheridan

Late last month, I introduced you to first baseman Jose Julio Ruiz, who will most certainly see time this year on a major league roster, likely as part of a 1B/DH platoon. Cubano, my main man at the Cuban Ball Players blog, is reporting that Ruiz performed very well in a private workout for the Texas Rangers, recently. According to Cubano, “Ruiz spent two days trying out in front of the top Rangers decision makers and senior scouts, including Rangers GM Jon Daniels and Manager Ron Washington.”

In looking over the Rangers depth chart, a Jose Julio Ruiz signing would reveal a lot about what Jon Daniels thinks about his club’s future. First, it would suggest that Chris Davis is not going to be a long-term fixture on this team, likely due to his deplorable hitting against southpaws. Second, it would be a sign that although Texas is willing to give Vladimir Guerrero a chance to regain his former glory in their Bandbox at Arlington (third highest in MLB Park Factor in 2009), they’re not exactly brimming with confidence that Vlad can stay healthy. Finally, it would indicate that the club isn’t about to rush Justin Smoak to the majors.

While Ruiz’s power is in question, 15 to 20 homers is reachable in Arlington, making him a more interesting option than if he were to play in a ballpark that suppresses home runs, such as in Detroit or Seattle. That said, I have to stick with my guns and advise y’all to draft him as a reserve.

Regardless of where or when Ruiz signs, you know I’ll be back with another post to break it all down for you.

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Best of the National League East

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

Balancing long-term potential with immediate impact is the hardest part of ranking fantasy prospects. Is it more important for owners to know about a 19-year-old who could be the next Carlos Beltran in three years, or a 24-year-old shortstop who will likely hit .300 in 2010? Decisions such as these are nearly impossible to make, but are exactly the kinds of questions I will be trying to determine in MLBFP’s Top 10 Fantasy Prospects By Division Series.

The NL East is a future fantasy goldmine, containing the two best prospects in all of baseball: in Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg. This division is as good a choice as any to kick off the Top 10 Fantasy Prospect Series.

The Top 10

1) Jason Heyward (OF, Atlanta Braves)  ETA: 2010

What is there to say about Heyward that hasn’t already been said a thousand times? A five-tool outfielder, the 20-year-old prospect tore the cover off the ball last season, hitting .323-17-63 with 10 stolen bases between stops at Single, Double, and Triple-A. Heyward will be given the chance to win the everyday right-field job out of spring training, and, given that his competition currently comes in the form of Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera, his odds are pretty good. If he gets 500 at-bats this season, Heyward could post numbers along the lines of .285-18-80 with 10 stolen bases. As he progresses in his career, Heyward should resemble a slimmer, in-his-prime Carlos Lee, and consistently hit 30-plus homeruns with a .320 batting average and 10 stolen bases. Those numbers would make him a top five fantasy outfielder and a top 20 player overall.

2) Stephen Strasburg (SP, Washington Nationals)  ETA: 2010

It’s pretty fashionable right now to predict that Strasburg will be a top-five fantasy pitcher by mid-June. Strasburg’s talent is undeniable, and in keeper leagues, I would take him over any minor leaguer, Heyward included. But to predict that any rookie, no matter how good, is going to pitch his first minor league inning in April and be better than Roy Halladay by June, is a bit of a stretch. If the Nationals are smart (and that’s a big if), they will keep Strasburg in the minors until June, delay his arbitration clock, and then let him throw 130-150 innings in the majors this year. Assuming he gets those innings, I could see Strasburg striking out 140 batters with a sub-4.00 ERA and 8-10 wins. That makes Strasburg worth owning in all fantasy leagues, but in non-keeper leagues, I wouldn’t reach for him too early just because he’s a sexy name. His upside is ridiculous, but the innings, the inexperience, and his supporting cast don’t point to absolute stardom just yet. By 2012, however, Strasburg will likely be a top-three fantasy pitcher and a top-25 overall pick.

3) Mike Stanton (OF, Florida Marlins)  ETA: Late 2011

Stanton has ridiculous, outrageous power. Ryan-Howard-meets-Adam-Dunn kind of power. And that makes him an absolute fantasy gem. Exactly five players hit 40 or more homeruns last season, and only six more matched or exceeded 35. Stanton has the capability to reach those numbers on a regular basis, but, unlike Dunn or Mark Reynolds, may be able to do so without killing your team’s batting average. Many scouting reports have bemoaned Stanton’s low contact rates and trouble hitting breaking balls, but he was only 19-years-old last season, and has already reached Double-A. Stanton has plenty of time to work on his deficiencies, and if he can hit .280 with a .350 OBP, he could legitimately become a top-15 fantasy player. Even is he never does completely refine his approach, .250 hitters with 40 home run potential certainly still have their place in the fantasy world.

4) Logan Morrison (1B, Florida Marlins)  ETA: Late 2010

Ever fantasy owner wants their first baseman to be one of the lynchpins of their offense, and that is exactly what Morrison has the potential to be in the future. A good hitter, who has improved his OBP steadily over the past three seasons, Morrison has been slowed down only by a wrist injury he suffered last season, which hampered his ability to hit for power. Many experts have brushed this injury aside, and I will gladly defer to their superior medical knowledge, but I also know that wrist injuries are to hitters what elbow injuries are to pitchers, and that makes me leery. If he does fully recover, Morrison can become a Lance Berkman-type .300-30-100 player, which would make him a top-25 fantasy contributor overall. I’m still cautiously optimistic about Morrison’s future, but want to see how quickly his power returns before I completely regain faith.

5) Dominic Brown (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)  ETA: 2011

A five-tool player, who Keith Law affectionately refers to as a “freak,” Brown could become a better player than Morrison down the load, but is ranked below him because he is unlikely to contribute at all in 2010. That the Phillies were ok with giving up Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor, but refused to part with Brown, should tell you all you need to know about his skill set. A potential fantasy stud, the highest ceiling for Brown is what B.J. Upton was supposed to be; a .290 hitter with 25-plus homerun power and the ability to steal 20-30 stolen bases annually. More conservative predictions would have Brown posting a .280-20-80 line with 20 stolen bases, which is what he’s more likely to produce when he first joins the big leagues. While Philadelphia’s outfield is currently stacked, Jayson Werth is a free agent after the year, and the Phillies would be wise to let him walk and allow Brown to compete for the job. In 2011, Brown will be an excellent late round pick, but he’s not worth drafting in 2010.

6) Derek Norris (C, Washington Nationals)  ETA: Late 2012

Norris is unlikely to make an impact in fantasy leagues for quite a while, but he’s ranked so highly because he has the opportunity to be an exceptionally rare fantasy asset: an offensively valuable catcher. Norris built on his breakout 2008 campaign last year, and put up a .286-23-84 line in Single-A, all at the age of 19. For comparison, Brian McCann’s stat line last year read .281-21-94, and he was among the top five most valuable fantasy backstops. Buster Posey and Carlos Santana aside (and assuming Jesus Montero moves from behind the plate), Norris is the best fantasy catching prospect in baseball right now. Hopefully the Nationals don’t rush him, and give Norris an entire season at Double-A. If he produces like he did in 2009, Norris will likely be a top-15 fantasy prospect next season. A relatively unknown prospect headed into last year, there is an off-chance Norris may still be available in some dynasty leagues. If he is, he should be picked up immediately.

7) Jenrry Mejia (SP, New York Mets)  ETA: 2011

Mejia skyrocketed up nearly everyone’s prospect rankings in 2009, as he transformed from an intriguing but unproven 18-year-old into an electric 19-year-old. Mejia dominated Single-A, posting an ERA of 1.97 with a 7.89 K/9 ratio. Mejia did face some adversity once promoted to Double-A, but still posted a sub-4.50 ERA while improving his K/9 ratio to 9.54. Mejia is a ways away from having significant fantasy value, and his control (3.71 BB/9) is a little concerning, but he has the upside of a frontline fantasy starter. An optimistic projection would have Mejia posting a 3.50 ERA with 190 strikeouts and 12-16 wins sometime in the not-too-distant future. Hopefully, the Mets will allow him to take his time, and won’t rush him in an attempt to aid their pitching-starved major league roster. He will likely be well worth the wait, and is a good pickup in all dynasty leagues.

8) Wilmer Flores (SS/3B, New York Mets)  ETA: 2013

Flores’ 2009 stats are pretty underwhelming: .265-3-35 in nearly 500 at-bats in Single-A. What makes Flores so special, however, is that he put up those numbers at the age of 17. There’s is no denying Flores has the raw skills to carry a special bat. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, his lack of mobility and speed means that his odds of staying at shortstop are slim to none. Regardless of his position, Flores has a chance to be a big-time fantasy contributor, which explains why, although he’s probably three full seasons away from seeing major league at-bats, he makes this list. If Flores has a good year in 2010, he will most likely be a top-15 fantasy prospect in 2011. Grab him in dynasty leagues if you can.

9) Fernando Martinez (OF, New York Mets)  ETA: 2010

Martinez was initially vastly overrated, struggled in 2009, and is now somewhat underrated. A potentially above-average everyday outfielder, Martinez is only 21, and still has plenty of time to get his career back on track. His biggest problem so far has been his lack of health; to this point in his career, Martinez has made J.D. Drew look like Cal Ripken Jr. If Martinez were given 500 healthy major league at-bats this year, he could easily hit .280-15-70 with 10 stolen bases, making him a decent third or fourth outfielder in NL-only leagues, and a borderline bench player in regular leagues. The problem, however, is that between his injury history and the current composition of the Mets’ outfield, Martinez is unlikely to get more than 300 at-bats. He is worth a flier in the late rounds of any draft, and is especially worthy of consideration in keeper leagues, but should not be counted on for significant production in 2010.

10) Drew Storen (RP, Washington Nationals)  ETA: 2010

Storen does not have as high of a ceiling as several other prospects in the NL East, but takes the final spot in my top 10 simply because he is very likely to be a fantasy contributor by midseason. A three-pitch reliever with outstanding control, Storen will likely be shuffled between Double and Triple-A until June, so that the Nationals can delay his arbitration clock. The signing of Matt Capps hurts Storen’s chances to close this year, but Storen has better stuff than Capps and will likely be the closer by mid-2011. Even if he isn’t compiling saves, Storen will likely be a decent pick-up for fantasy owners, as he should provide Ks and a great WHIP, along with some holds and vulture wins. Storen probably shouldn’t be drafted in regular 10x10 leagues just yet, but is a nice late-round pick in NL-only leagues, and should be monitored very closely in leagues that score holds.

The Next 5

11) Julio Teheran (SP, Atlanta Braves)  ETA: 2013

Teheran has the most upside of any pitching prospect not named Strasburg in the division, but is several years away from a big league appearance. His 96 mph fastball and improving secondary pitches give him the ceiling of a future ace or dominant closer.

12) Phillippe Aumont (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)  ETA: 2011

Aumont’s talent dictates him being higher on this list, but as of 2009, it looks like he will be a reliever. If he closes, Aumont will still be a very valuable fantasy asset, but his injury history knocks him below the more projectable Teheran and the nearly MLB-ready Storen.

13) Freddie Freeman (1B, Atlanta Braves)  ETA: 2011

Freeman’s power diminished last season, leaving many to fear he’s more Casey Kotchman than Billy Butler. If Freeman regains his power, he will likely be a top-30 fantasy prospect next year. If not, he might fall out of the top-100 entirely.

14) Ike Davis (1B, New York Mets)  ETA: 2011

One of the Mets’ first round pick in 2008 (along with Reese Havens), Davis absolutely crushes right-handed pitching, but really struggles against lefties. If he can solve this problem, he will be a top-15 fantasy first baseman. If not, he’s the second coming of Adam LaRoche: still valuable, but for fantasy owners, a mediocre corner infield option at best.

15) Ian Desmond (SS, Washington Nationals)  ETA: 2010

Other players, such as Matt Dominguez, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado, are much better prospects, but Desmond is likely to contribute in 2010. He will never be a fantasy stud, but could hit .280-10-55 with 10 stolen bases, which, because of positions scarcity, would make him draft-worthy in NL-only leagues.

#6 MLB Fantasy Prospect - Justin Smoak (1B, Texas Rangers) - Scouting Report

I still can’t believe that Justin Smoak and Matt Wieters were in the same high school lineup. Seriously, you know there’s a former high school pitcher out there who is still suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder as a result of the damage the Smoak/Wieters duo laid on him. Reach out to us at MLBFP if you’re that pitcher, we would love to relive some of your experiences against them – as a form of “therapy,” of course.

Justin Smoak was No. 11 on my Top 200 Fantasy Prospects preseason list in 2009. I predicted he would be a fantasy stud within four years. Despite some of his struggles last year, I am firmly sticking to my original prediction.

Smoak posted the following stats across three levels of the minor leagues in 2009 (Rookie, Double-A, and Triple-A): .290 BA/12 HRs/.410 OBP/.443 SLG. The 6-4, 220-pound first baseman displayed his tremendous plate patience throughout the season – with a 14.0-plus% walk rate at every level. Notably, Smoak was stellar at Double-A (.328 BA/.930 OPS), but struggled at Triple-A (.244 BA/.723 OPS).

Just like Madison Bumgarner, Smoak had his fair share of critics this offseason. Smoak didn’t produce the type of power numbers many expected last year in the minors. Specifically, along with only smacking 12 HRs, and having a mere .443 SLG, Smoak’s ISOs sat at .153 at Double-A and a measly .117 at Triple-A. In addition, despite the fact he’s a switch-hitter, Smoak struggled against lefties, hitting only .214, with 3 HRs, and a .626 OPS. The concerns regarding Smoak’s Triple-A numbers, power, and ability to hit southpaws are certainly valid based on his production from last year.

Am I worried about his long-term fantasy future? Nope. As far as his performance at Triple-A, let’s give him a break, it was a 197 AB sample size. Smoak made it quite clear this offseason that he can still rake by winning the MVP award at the 2009 Baseball World Cup, hitting .291 with nine bombs. I am confident he will carry that momentum into the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) in 2010.

His power? C’mon, this guy hit a record 62 home runs at the University of South Carolina. The pop will come at advanced levels as he refines his swing. Most importantly, Smoak needs to keep his hands back just a tad longer as he releases his massive swing. This slight adjustment will produce more of those fanta-sexy bombs we all cherish. Smoak might not hit 40-plus HRs per year on a regular basis, but 30-35 HRs per season is almost a certainty once he reaches his prime.

Finally, let’s not overreact to the stats against lefties. Smoak hit .337 against lefties at South Carolina and .317 against lefties in his first season of pro ball (2008). You can’t judge a fantasy prospect book by one season’s worth of numbers. Further, patience is one of the greatest fantasy virtues. Do I need to spit anymore tiresome clichés to get my point across?

Smoak will receive a big league promotion after the All-Star break. Do you really believe Vladimir Guerrero will stay healthy all season AND Chris Davis will produce for a full season. A spot will open in the Rangers’ lineup and Smoak will grab it. Take a late risk on him in deeper redraft leagues or follow him closely on the waiver wire. In keeper leagues, he should already be long gone in existing leagues, and will be expensive in new leagues. That said, he’s worth the jacked-up price whether you have to acquire him via trade or through the draft.

Hisanori Takahashi (SP, Free Agent, Japan) Linked to Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Giants

Back in November, we introduced you to Hisanori Takahashi, a 34-year-old, Japanese lefty trying to break into MLB after spending his entire 10-year career with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. On January 28, Rotoworld reported the following:

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports that the Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Giants are among the teams with interest in Japanese left-hander Hisanori Takahashi.

MLBFP’s Japanese Baseball correspondent, Brandon Siefken of Japan Baseball News, just emailed me some insider information as to why Takahashi has yet to sign. The word is that he is insisting on being a starter. Most MLB scouts, Siefken included, do not think he is worthy of starting pitcher money.

Who else thinks that the team that signs Takahashi will be “promising” a shot at the rotation?

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Average Draft Position Analysis - 2010 Impact Rookies

Contributed by Michael Rathburn, blogging at Around the Cooler

Finding sleepers – especially impact rookies – is a fantasy baseball owners’ holy grail. With so much information out there these days, it is harder and harder to find a gem. Also, with teams forced to deal with salary constraints, players are being rushed to the majors a lot faster and their development can take a hit.

This is an analysis of the top eligible hitters for the American League/National League Rookie of the Year (“ROY”) award in 2010, along with an examination of their projected role and recommendations on whether you should draft them at their Average Draft Position (“ADP”) or pass on them. ROY eligibility is less than 130 at bats/50 innings pitched/45 days of service time. There were a few guys who just barely missed this list – Alcides Escobar, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, and Daniel Bard.

ADP’s are courtesy of Mock Draft Central with a sample size of 335 drafts from Jan 13 – Jan 29, 2010.

You can find the same ADP analysis for rookie pitchers at my site – Around the Cooler

Jason Heyward OF – Atlanta Braves

ADP: 317  Earliest: 184  Drafted: 19%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #1

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A/Starting RF in ATL

Analysis: If the 2007 draft were held today, Heyward would be the #1 pick – hands down. He has gone through the Atlanta minors like a hot knife through butter, getting better with each level. The temptation is there to slow him down and not rush him, but the talent just overcomes. His rise is very similar to Jay Bruce a couple years ago. The only knock on Heyward has been the nagging injuries, namely the hammy and bruised heel he suffered in the Arizona Fall League.

I’d prefer to see Heyward get those 200-300 at-bats in Triple-A, then come up June/July. Once he comes up, he won’t go back down. There is a little bit of a log-jam in that Matt Diaz did play well in 2009, but that won’t stop Atlanta from bringing up their most exciting hitting prospect since Andruw Jones.

I think the 317 ADP is right on with Heyward in comparing other OFs at the same spot. The key is watching the spring training battle with Diaz. If Heyward wins the spot, then you can project 450 ABs and the numbers should increase by 25%.

Projection: 350 ABs/15 HRs/50 RBIs/.280/.350/.450

Desmond Jennings OF – Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 266  Drafted: 1.8%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #5

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A

Analysis: In 2009, Jennings vaulted himself back into the upper echelon of prospects and lived up to the comparison of a Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton clone.

Jennings’ 2008 season was marred with injuries and question marks started to surface. Jennings put all those question marks to bed with a monster 2009 – 11 HRs/92 RBIs/.320 AVG/52 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A. Jennings probably needs the typical 300-400 at-bats in Triple-A, but a great sign for Jennings is the K/BB ratio. It’s almost 1:1. We’re not talking Cameron Maybin here; think Andrew McCutchen but slightly better. There’s certainly ADP value surrounding Jennings.

I can see the Rays bringing Jennings to the bigs on June 1. Jennings will be most valuable in AL-only league formats. He will at least become a great fourth OF after June 1.

Projection: 400 ABs/10 HRs/65 RBIs/25 SBs

Carlos Santana C – Cleveland Indians

ADP: 326  Earliest: 220  Drafted: 9.3%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #9

Opening Day Assignment: Starting C in Triple-A; with an outside shot to win the starting job in CLE

Analysis: Santana will always be noted for the trade in which the Indians sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The Dodgers already had Russell Martin and Blake has been huge for them. But the Indians got a Top 10 prospect and one of the top two catchers in the minor leagues. The path to the majors isn’t blocked for Santana, but 2 months worth of steady Triple-A pitching, to start the season, will do nothing but help his growth.

Just like Jennings, the thing I love about Santana is the K:BB ratio of 1:1.

There’s an outside shot the Indians will go with Santana on the Opening Day roster, but I doubt it. If you can afford to hold out on a catcher for 2 months, great, if not then you still have a guy who can play UTIL once he comes up. Or you can deal your starting C. Either way these numbers project a Top 15 catcher in mixed leagues and Top 10 in AL only leagues.

Projection: 350 ABs/10 HRs/55 RBIs/.265 AVG/.340 OBP/.450 SLG

 

Justin Smoak 1B – Texas Rangers

ADP: 231 (AL Only)  Drafted: 91.7%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #10

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B at Triple-A

Analysis: Smoak was the 11th pick in the 1st round by the Rangers in 2008. Comps to Mark Teixeira are inevitable. Smoak put up monster numbers at South Carolina but the power hasn’t translated to the minor leagues – as of yet. Also, Smoak only hit .244 at Triple-A last year in 200 at bats, so more seasoning is definitely needed.

The Rangers have a log-jam at 1B/DH right now with Chris Davis and Vladimir Guerrero. Smoak should be the starting 1B for the Rangers in 2011, or at worst the DH, provided the bat carries over this year. I would advise against drafting Smoak in any non-keeper leagues for 2010. If Davis or Guerrerro go down for an extended period of time, he‘s an immediate add in AL-only leagues.

Projection: September promotion; not much value in 2010 unless there’s an injury on the major league roster.

Buster Posey C – San Francisco Giants

ADP: 281  Earliest: 206  Drafted: 64%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #11

Opening Day Assignment: Backup C

Analysis: It sure was looking like Bengie Molina was a lock to sign with the Mets, and Posey would be handed the starting catcher job. But Molina resigned with the Giants, meaning Posey will have to wait until 2011 to receive the starting gig.

A nice #2 C play in NL-only leagues, but in mixed leagues you would only want to own Posey if you had Molina as well.

Projection: 300 at-bats and .280/.330/.420

Pedro Alvarez 1B/3B – Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 333  Earliest: 274  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #13

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A

Analysis: Alvarez was the #2 overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh was commended for drafting him despite his huge signing bonus demands. Alvarez didn’t set the world on fire in 2008, or early 2009, and there were rumors that he was out of shape. Then he got promoted to Double-A and a lot of people were scratching their heads. Well, no one is scratching anymore because he put up .333/.419/.590. There isn’t much of a roadblock at 1B for Alvarez with Jeff Clement. Clement could possibly be moved to C if Ryan Doumit is dealt.

I would like to see Alvarez get as many at-bats in Triple-A before getting the call to the Show. This will give him time to adjust to the pitching at that level, play 1B, and get into shape. Unless there is an injury or he’s hitting .350 at AAA, I think a Late 2010 callup is in order.

Projection: 200 ABs/12 HRs/30 RBIs/.275/.350/.500

Brett Wallace 1B/3B – Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 263  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #23

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A / DH in TOR

Analysis: Wallace came over to the Jays in the deal where Michael Taylor went to Oakland. Taylor was expendable because the Jays were already set in the OF and Lyle Overbay is on a one-year deal. Also, the Jays have a void at DH if Travis Snider can hold up in RF. Wallace has been a part of many discussions – people either love him or hate him. I personally love the guy. He has a very wide lower base and I marvel a dude who has worked his tail off to try and stick at 3B. It does look like he will have to go to 1B / DH, but he’s a hitter. I will take a pure hitter over tools at this stage in the game especially in fantasy baseball. Wallace is a nice play if he lands on the 25-man Opening Day roster.

Projection: 500 ABs/15 HRs/65 RBIs/.280/.330/.450

Scott Sizemore 2B – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 326  Earliest: 200  Drafted: 7.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 2B in DET

Analysis: With the departure of Placido Polanco to the Phillies, the job is Sizemore’s. He did suffer a broken left ankle during the Arizona Fall League, but expects to be 100% by spring training. I’m not a fan of where he’s being drafted. Freddy Sanchez, Kelly Johnson, Luis Castillo, and Alberto Callaspo (a personal favorite) are all better 2nd basemen and being drafted below Sizemore. He’s a nice pick in AL only leagues but only as a MI. The problem with Sizemore is that getting 500 at-bats is not a guarantee with Ramon Santiago also in the mix.

Projection: 400 ABs/.265/.325/.390/10 HRs/60 RBIs/12 SBs

Austin Jackson OF – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 332  Earliest: 236  Drafted: 2.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting CF in DET

Analysis: Jackson was much hyped for the past few years as part of the Yankees organization. He was part of the Curtis Granderson trade that also involved the Diamondbacks. Detroit is hoping that Jackson can win the starting CF spot in spring training to help this deal payoff faster. Jackson is going to be a player who won’t have much fantasy value; but will be much more valuable in real baseball because of his defense. He will be a 4th/ 5^th OF in AL-only leagues at best.

Projection: 450 ABs/6 HRs/50 RBIs/18 SBs/.275/.330/.370

Eric Young, Jr UTIL – Colorado Rockies

ADP: 332  Earliest: 258  Drafted: 1.5%

Opening Day Assignment: Super Utility in COL (NL’s Chone Figgins)

Analysis: Son of EY – Eric Young; EY; EY2 or EYJr will enter 2010 as the UTIL guy for the Rockies. He doesn’t have a starting position home right now with Dexter Fowler in CF and Clint Barmes at 2B, but if either struggle – he will get some playing time. Young has been compared to Figgins because of his speed and versatility. I don’t know if Young will be able to hit .300 at the big league level, but if given 400-500 at-bats the SB’s will be 50-plus. I don’t see him getting enough ABs this year to warrant a draft selection.

Projection: 200 ABs/3 HRs/20 RBIs/20 SBs/.275/.325/.390

Michael Brantley OF – Cleveland Indians

ADP: N/R

Opening Day Assignment: Starting LF in CLE

Analysis: With the success of guys like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and Rajai Davis last year; owners are going to want a look at Brantley, who fits the same mold. Tons of speed, gets on base, but doesn’t do much else. The good thing about Brantley is that the starting LF job is his and he will get ABs. He will be a great cheap steals guy for you and is worth a flyer around the 20 th pick in AL-Only leagues.

Projection: 5 HRs/40 RBIs/30 SBs/.275/.350/.375'

Ian Desmond SS – Washington Nationals

ADP: 212 (NL Only)  Earliest: 198  Drafted: 15.0%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting SS in WAS

Analysis: Desmond inherits the SS spot left open when Cristian Guzman was moved to 2B. The wild card will be if the Nats end up signing Orlando Hudson, which would crush Desmond’s value for 2010. In 82 at-bats last year, he put up four HRs and 12 RBIs, while hitting .280. Sample size is small, but it was enough to make him the front-runner for the starting SS job. Desmond has shown pretty good pop in the minor leagues, thus, it isn’t of the question for him to be a 10-15 HR guy.

He comes in around the 12th best SS in the NL, so you are looking at a MI play only. His draft position is a tad low, and I think if you reach on him a round or two early it will be a good move.

Projection: 400 ABs/.270/.330/.435/10 HRs/55 RBIs/15 SBs

David Freese 3B – St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 332  Earliest: 272  Drafted: 2.1%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 3B in STL

Analysis: Freese was supposed to be the starting 3B last year for the Cardinals when Troy Glaus went down with an injury. It never happened and everyone that grabbed him in NL-only leagues (myself included) dropped him just as fast too.

Freese is an older prospect at 26 years of age, but there are no roadblocks – so it’s sink or swim for him in 2010. When looking at Freese there are some things to like and some red flags.

The Good – He’s hit .300 at every level in the minors with strong OPS numbers.

The Bad – His BABIP is ridiculous; mostly over .350; the K% over 20%

“The Bad” tells me is he’s more likely to be a .265 hitter at the big league level; not .300. If everything goes right, Freese could be a Top 15 3B in 2010, which would put in that 250 ADP range. Freese is a good candidate for NL-only leagues at 3B or CI spots.

Projection: 500 ABs/18 HRs/70 RBIs/.265/.335/.440

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Team Scouting Reports and Analysis - Baltimore Orioles

Contributed by Jordan Tuwiner, author of OriolesProspects.com, where you can find news and analysis on all of the Baltimore Orioles prospects throughout the year.

The 2009 season brought a good feeling to the fans in Baltimore. They saw the future.

Who is this Matt Wieters guy? Wieters was one of many rookies to make their debut for the Orioles in 2009. Wieters was considered the best of the bats that came up, but you could argue that the underrated Nolan Reimold had the better season.

While Wieters and Reimold flashed the future on the offensive side, they were joined by a pair of elite pitching prospects, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman. Tillman struggled a bit in his debut, but his curveball is so nasty. I cannot wait to see him in two years. Matusz had more immediate success because he’s a bit more polished than Tillman. Tillman and Matusz were joined by rookie pitchers Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken and David Hernandez. Bergesen had the most success of the entire lot, more than even Matusz and Tillman. Bergesen registered quality start after quality start, pitched deep into games and saved the bullpen.

With that said, you can see how bright the future is for Baltimore and I guarantee there are winning seasons to come. But, let’s get to what you MLBFP readers care about most – what can these Baltimore kids do to help your fantasy team?

Let’s start on the offensive side. Wieters has a premium bat and also plays catcher – a position of scarcity in fantasy leagues. He hits for average, power, makes contact and takes walks. Basically, with the exception of stolen bases, he provides everything that you want from a fantasy weapon. If you are drafting for a keeper league, Wieters is a no-brainer. He should establish himself as a perennial all-star catcher with gold glove defense. Of course, as we know, defense doesn’t matter for fantasy purposes.

Wieters was one of the most hyped players I’ve ever seen. However, Reimold may have shown more in his rookie season and exceeded expectations. He demonstrated his plus power by hitting 15 home runs in about two-thirds of a season, hit for average, stole bases, took walks, and wouldn’t kill you if you are penalized for strikeouts. Had Reimold played a full season, his final numbers projected out to about .280/25/80/16. Pretty good, huh?

But wait! The Orioles farm system still has more bats to offer! Third baseman Josh Bell should be ready by 2011 at the latest. He’s a serious power threat and should net you about the same numbers as Reimold, but with less steals. Brandon Snyder should take over at first base by 2011, as well and should hit for around a .300 average, with loads of doubles.

Now, some more chat about the young guns in Baltimore’s organization. Matusz and Tillman could become one of the most dangerous 1-2 punches in all of baseball by 2012. Both of them have potential to get you about 17 wins a season with over 190 strikeouts. Further, both of their ERAs should sit in the 3.20-4.20 range throughout their careers.

Bergesen is not going to be as valuable as Matusz and Tillman in terms of fantasy production, simply because his strikeout rate will always sit around 4.5/9. However, if you need someone who’s a good bet for a 4.00 ERA and about 12 wins, Bergensen is a nice target.

Aside from the pitchers already in the Baltimore rotation, Jake Arrieta is most likely one injury away from reaching making his big league debut. He has the potential to be better than Matusz and Tillman in his peak seasons.

Let’s talk fantasy sleepers. He’s not much of a sleeper anymore, but Zach Britton could see some time late in the year and he could help you make a playoff push. Further, if Brandon Erbe gets the call to pitch out of the bullpen, pick him up right away. He already has closer stuff with a plus fastball and an above-average slider.

Finally, if your league has minor league rosters, you should think about claiming Oliver Drake. He was having a spectacular year in 2009, but struggled in his last two starts giving up 13 runs. Drake has the potential to be a 2010 version of Britton.