It’s not easy for me to place Aroldis Chapman in MLBFP’s Top 25. This Cuban defect could easily become a prospect reject.
That said, even though Chapman is as raw as a diaper-rashed baby’s bottom and has yet to sign with a major league squad, he deserves a spot on his list for one reason – his mouth-watering upside. We are talking about a 21-year-old (yeah, we all want to examine the birth certificate) with a 6-4, 179-pound projectable frame and the ability to hit triple digits on the radar gun. Shoot, even the biggest Chapman-haters can’t deny that his age, body-type, and arm trigger a reaction from the salivary glands.
Chapman is primarily a three-pitch-pony. He’s armed with a mid-90s fastball, late-moving slider and a developing curveball. The lanky southpaw throws a splitter and a variety of changeups as well, but those pitches are works-in-progress. Chapman’s already has the fastball velocity and nastilicious slider to have some big league success. After watching some tape on this dude, I’m convinced the slider could become his signature in the bigs rather than his heater. The pitch is extremely deceptive because it’s on an almost-identical plane as the fastball until it sends left-handed hitters fishing and back-doors right-handed batters.
Why is Chapman’s downside as dangerous as his upside? Well, the Cuban sensation still hasn’t mastered his control or command. Chapman has been known to go on walk-fests and tends to miss his spots even when he’s around the plate. For example, Chapman has had the following BB/9 rates in Cuba over the past four years: 9.0, 5.5, 4.5 and 4.7. These rates will be even higher in the majors given the transition from Cuban baseball to MLB. Trust me, major league hitters will patiently force him to find the plate, and will hammer him if he consistently makes mistakes in the zone. Chapman needs time to become a pitcher rather than a thrower; his velocity alone won’t make him a fantasy force.
There have also been questions about Chapman’s maturity and mental makeup. Can he handle the pressure of the mammoth contract once he signs? Will he melt on the mound when he experiences adversity? Will he work hard enough to become a stud pitcher? These are all still open questions. Chapman needs to plant himself on a team with a top-notch pitching coach, who can perfect his mechanics/off-speed pitches, and supporting veterans who can look over his shoulder.
Chapman is reportedly looking for a $40-60 million deal. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, and Toronto Blue Jays have all expressed interest in the international free agent. Chapman recently fired his agent, Edwin Mejia, who was deep in negotiations with many teams. Chapman has replaced Mejia with the Hendricks brothers to finish off a deal. This is a hint he may be headed to the Bronx because of the Hendricks brothers’ deep-rooted relationship with the Yanks. Our man, Scoops Sheridan, predicted back in July that Chapman would end up in pinstripes. We will soon find out if he was on the mark.
It’s obvious I have major reservations about Chapman. In fact, there’s a real possibility he only ends up slightly better than fellow Cuban, Jose Contreras, if he remains a starting pitcher. Yikes. Nevertheless, you can’t pass on him in limited-pool keeper league drafts because of his projectable body, power repertoire, and enormous ceiling. Further, even if Chapman is moved to the back of the bullpen because he can’t develop a solid third pitch, he will still provide great value in most formats as dominant closer.
Chapman will have initial struggles. He is more of a project prospect than a blue-chipper. You need to have long-term patience and a pro-risk mentality to acquire him. Don’t overpay for Chapman in trades because of the hovering red flags, but scoop him up in keeper league drafts if he’s there for the taking.
Check out the video on Chapman below. Future ace? The Yankees’ dominant closer in 2015? Overrated and overhyped No. 4 starter? Let’s hear your thoughts.
