Contributed by Ray Guilfoyle
Usually the MLB Hot Stove doesn’t really get cookin’ until after the GM meetings in early November. Well, this year the hot stove got into full-gear just after the World Series ended. Already we have seen four off-season trades and should see more soon from the Winter Meetings in December. Judging by the way GMs are posturing, this off-season could be highlighted by more trades than usual, moving some of the spotlight away from big free agent signings and shining more on trade rumors. Today, I’ll be analyzing the Marlins trade of Jeremy Hermida to the Red Sox for minor league pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.
For the second year in a row, the Marlins are trading-off their arbitration eligible players and will most likely deal second baseman Dan Uggla. The Fish are also considering moving third baseman Jorge Cantu and possibly starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco. I am sure you all know that Hermida was once the top prospect in baseball, but he is one of the many who have never lived up to their potential.
This deal benefits owners of five-tool outfielder prospect Cameron Maybin, Double-A outfielder Scott Cousins, and the power-hitting uber-prospect, Michael Stanton, also in Double-A. Here is what Joe Frisaro from MLB.com had to say after the Hermida trade:
Florida expects to bring back Cody Ross, who also is eligible for arbitration, to play right field. The team's outfield projects to be Chris Coghlan in left field, Cameron Maybin in center and Ross in right. Coghlan, however, may wind up at second base. There is a strong likelihood that Dan Uggla will be traded.
If Coghlan moves back to the infield, the Marlins have several outfield prospects, including Scott Cousins and Mike Stanton.
"If Maybin slides into center field, Cody can play right," [Marlins GM] Beinfest said. "Stanton and Cousins are on their way. We thought we were dealing from an area of depth. And also, within our payroll, our allocations need to be in the best place to be most competitive. Obviously, [Hermida] is a second-time arbitration player."
After his cup of coffee last September, Maybin, who came to the Marlins two seasons ago in the Miguel Cabrera deal, will be handed the centerfield job in spring training.
Larry Beinfest says his team trading from an area of depth, but looking at their 40-man roster, I see only Brett Carroll and Alfredo Amezaga after Coghlan, Ross, and Maybin. Since Carroll and Amezaga are players who are better served in reserve roles, I think the Marlins may look to the free agent market and sign an outfielder to a one year deal. Someone like Garret Anderson would be a perfect match as he would come cheap and could be platooned with Carroll until Stanton is ready. Florida could also promote John Raynor, who went 6-36-19-.257-.327-.360-.687 in 123 games with Triple-A New Orleans in 2009. He too could be the right-handed part of a platoon with a Anderson.
If the Marlins stay in-house, they have a tough choice between Cousins or Stanton. Cousins hit .268 with 12 HRs, 74 RBI and 27 SBs in 130 games. Stanton went 16-53-.231-.311-.455 in 299 ABs for Jacksonville, but went 28-92-.255-.341-.501-.842 for the season split between High-A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville. And don't forget about AA outfielder Bryan Peterson who is currently hitting very well in the Arizona Fall League. Peterson went 7-49-13-.297-.368-.413 in 2009, and is projected to be a fourth outfielder type in the big leagues.
As for Hermida, he is probably just an insurance policy for the Red Sox should they not re-sign free agent left fielder Jason Bay or go after Scott Boras client, Matt Holliday. If the Boston signs either one of them, Hermida will be a fourth outfielder, albeit a nice one to have with injury-prone J.D. Drew in right field. On the other hand, should the Bo-Sox lose out on signing those big guns, Hermida could start in left field everyday. Could Boston be where Hermida finally breaks out in 2010?
Ray Guilfoyle has been blogging at Fake Teams, an SBNation site, for a year and a half, focusing player analysis, draft strategies, and the impact of rumors and transactions for fantasy sports leagues. Ray participates in 3 NL-only fantasy/roto leagues, including one that has been around almost 15 years.
