Contributed by Michael Rathburn, blogging at Around the Cooler
Finding sleepers – especially impact rookies – is a fantasy baseball owners’ holy grail. With so much information out there these days, it is harder and harder to find a gem. Also, with teams forced to deal with salary constraints, players are being rushed to the majors a lot faster and their development can take a hit.
This is an analysis of the top eligible hitters for the American League/National League Rookie of the Year (“ROY”) award in 2010, along with an examination of their projected role and recommendations on whether you should draft them at their Average Draft Position (“ADP”) or pass on them. ROY eligibility is less than 130 at bats/50 innings pitched/45 days of service time. There were a few guys who just barely missed this list – Alcides Escobar, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, and Daniel Bard.
ADP’s are courtesy of Mock Draft Central with a sample size of 335 drafts from Jan 13 – Jan 29, 2010.
You can find the same ADP analysis for rookie pitchers at my site – Around the Cooler
Jason Heyward OF – Atlanta Braves
ADP: 317 Earliest: 184 Drafted: 19%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #1
Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A/Starting RF in ATL
Analysis: If the 2007 draft were held today, Heyward would be the #1 pick – hands down. He has gone through the Atlanta minors like a hot knife through butter, getting better with each level. The temptation is there to slow him down and not rush him, but the talent just overcomes. His rise is very similar to Jay Bruce a couple years ago. The only knock on Heyward has been the nagging injuries, namely the hammy and bruised heel he suffered in the Arizona Fall League.
I’d prefer to see Heyward get those 200-300 at-bats in Triple-A, then come up June/July. Once he comes up, he won’t go back down. There is a little bit of a log-jam in that Matt Diaz did play well in 2009, but that won’t stop Atlanta from bringing up their most exciting hitting prospect since Andruw Jones.
I think the 317 ADP is right on with Heyward in comparing other OFs at the same spot. The key is watching the spring training battle with Diaz. If Heyward wins the spot, then you can project 450 ABs and the numbers should increase by 25%.
Projection: 350 ABs/15 HRs/50 RBIs/.280/.350/.450
Desmond Jennings OF – Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 332 Earliest: 266 Drafted: 1.8%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #5
Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A
Analysis: In 2009, Jennings vaulted himself back into the upper echelon of prospects and lived up to the comparison of a Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton clone.
Jennings’ 2008 season was marred with injuries and question marks started to surface. Jennings put all those question marks to bed with a monster 2009 – 11 HRs/92 RBIs/.320 AVG/52 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A. Jennings probably needs the typical 300-400 at-bats in Triple-A, but a great sign for Jennings is the K/BB ratio. It’s almost 1:1. We’re not talking Cameron Maybin here; think Andrew McCutchen but slightly better. There’s certainly ADP value surrounding Jennings.
I can see the Rays bringing Jennings to the bigs on June 1. Jennings will be most valuable in AL-only league formats. He will at least become a great fourth OF after June 1.
Projection: 400 ABs/10 HRs/65 RBIs/25 SBs
Carlos Santana C – Cleveland Indians
ADP: 326 Earliest: 220 Drafted: 9.3%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #9
Opening Day Assignment: Starting C in Triple-A; with an outside shot to win the starting job in CLE
Analysis: Santana will always be noted for the trade in which the Indians sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The Dodgers already had Russell Martin and Blake has been huge for them. But the Indians got a Top 10 prospect and one of the top two catchers in the minor leagues. The path to the majors isn’t blocked for Santana, but 2 months worth of steady Triple-A pitching, to start the season, will do nothing but help his growth.
Just like Jennings, the thing I love about Santana is the K:BB ratio of 1:1.
There’s an outside shot the Indians will go with Santana on the Opening Day roster, but I doubt it. If you can afford to hold out on a catcher for 2 months, great, if not then you still have a guy who can play UTIL once he comes up. Or you can deal your starting C. Either way these numbers project a Top 15 catcher in mixed leagues and Top 10 in AL only leagues.
Projection: 350 ABs/10 HRs/55 RBIs/.265 AVG/.340 OBP/.450 SLG
Justin Smoak 1B – Texas Rangers
ADP: 231 (AL Only) Drafted: 91.7%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #10
Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B at Triple-A
Analysis: Smoak was the 11th pick in the 1st round by the Rangers in 2008. Comps to Mark Teixeira are inevitable. Smoak put up monster numbers at South Carolina but the power hasn’t translated to the minor leagues – as of yet. Also, Smoak only hit .244 at Triple-A last year in 200 at bats, so more seasoning is definitely needed.
The Rangers have a log-jam at 1B/DH right now with Chris Davis and Vladimir Guerrero. Smoak should be the starting 1B for the Rangers in 2011, or at worst the DH, provided the bat carries over this year. I would advise against drafting Smoak in any non-keeper leagues for 2010. If Davis or Guerrerro go down for an extended period of time, he‘s an immediate add in AL-only leagues.
Projection: September promotion; not much value in 2010 unless there’s an injury on the major league roster.
Buster Posey C – San Francisco Giants
ADP: 281 Earliest: 206 Drafted: 64%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #11
Opening Day Assignment: Backup C
Analysis: It sure was looking like Bengie Molina was a lock to sign with the Mets, and Posey would be handed the starting catcher job. But Molina resigned with the Giants, meaning Posey will have to wait until 2011 to receive the starting gig.
A nice #2 C play in NL-only leagues, but in mixed leagues you would only want to own Posey if you had Molina as well.
Projection: 300 at-bats and .280/.330/.420
Pedro Alvarez 1B/3B – Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 333 Earliest: 274 Drafted: 1.5%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #13
Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A
Analysis: Alvarez was the #2 overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh was commended for drafting him despite his huge signing bonus demands. Alvarez didn’t set the world on fire in 2008, or early 2009, and there were rumors that he was out of shape. Then he got promoted to Double-A and a lot of people were scratching their heads. Well, no one is scratching anymore because he put up .333/.419/.590. There isn’t much of a roadblock at 1B for Alvarez with Jeff Clement. Clement could possibly be moved to C if Ryan Doumit is dealt.
I would like to see Alvarez get as many at-bats in Triple-A before getting the call to the Show. This will give him time to adjust to the pitching at that level, play 1B, and get into shape. Unless there is an injury or he’s hitting .350 at AAA, I think a Late 2010 callup is in order.
Projection: 200 ABs/12 HRs/30 RBIs/.275/.350/.500
Brett Wallace 1B/3B – Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 332 Earliest: 263 Drafted: 1.5%
Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #23
Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A / DH in TOR
Analysis: Wallace came over to the Jays in the deal where Michael Taylor went to Oakland. Taylor was expendable because the Jays were already set in the OF and Lyle Overbay is on a one-year deal. Also, the Jays have a void at DH if Travis Snider can hold up in RF. Wallace has been a part of many discussions – people either love him or hate him. I personally love the guy. He has a very wide lower base and I marvel a dude who has worked his tail off to try and stick at 3B. It does look like he will have to go to 1B / DH, but he’s a hitter. I will take a pure hitter over tools at this stage in the game especially in fantasy baseball. Wallace is a nice play if he lands on the 25-man Opening Day roster.
Projection: 500 ABs/15 HRs/65 RBIs/.280/.330/.450
Scott Sizemore 2B – Detroit Tigers
ADP: 326 Earliest: 200 Drafted: 7.4%
Opening Day Assignment: Starting 2B in DET
Analysis: With the departure of Placido Polanco to the Phillies, the job is Sizemore’s. He did suffer a broken left ankle during the Arizona Fall League, but expects to be 100% by spring training. I’m not a fan of where he’s being drafted. Freddy Sanchez, Kelly Johnson, Luis Castillo, and Alberto Callaspo (a personal favorite) are all better 2nd basemen and being drafted below Sizemore. He’s a nice pick in AL only leagues but only as a MI. The problem with Sizemore is that getting 500 at-bats is not a guarantee with Ramon Santiago also in the mix.
Projection: 400 ABs/.265/.325/.390/10 HRs/60 RBIs/12 SBs
Austin Jackson OF – Detroit Tigers
ADP: 332 Earliest: 236 Drafted: 2.4%
Opening Day Assignment: Starting CF in DET
Analysis: Jackson was much hyped for the past few years as part of the Yankees organization. He was part of the Curtis Granderson trade that also involved the Diamondbacks. Detroit is hoping that Jackson can win the starting CF spot in spring training to help this deal payoff faster. Jackson is going to be a player who won’t have much fantasy value; but will be much more valuable in real baseball because of his defense. He will be a 4th/ 5th OF in AL-only leagues at best.
Projection: 450 ABs/6 HRs/50 RBIs/18 SBs/.275/.330/.370
Eric Young, Jr UTIL – Colorado Rockies
ADP: 332 Earliest: 258 Drafted: 1.5%
Opening Day Assignment: Super Utility in COL (NL’s Chone Figgins)
Analysis: Son of EY – Eric Young; EY; EY2 or EYJr will enter 2010 as the UTIL guy for the Rockies. He doesn’t have a starting position home right now with Dexter Fowler in CF and Clint Barmes at 2B, but if either struggle – he will get some playing time. Young has been compared to Figgins because of his speed and versatility. I don’t know if Young will be able to hit .300 at the big league level, but if given 400-500 at-bats the SB’s will be 50-plus. I don’t see him getting enough ABs this year to warrant a draft selection.
Projection: 200 ABs/3 HRs/20 RBIs/20 SBs/.275/.325/.390
Michael Brantley OF – Cleveland Indians
ADP: N/R
Opening Day Assignment: Starting LF in CLE
Analysis: With the success of guys like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and Rajai Davis last year; owners are going to want a look at Brantley, who fits the same mold. Tons of speed, gets on base, but doesn’t do much else. The good thing about Brantley is that the starting LF job is his and he will get ABs. He will be a great cheap steals guy for you and is worth a flyer around the 20 th pick in AL-Only leagues.
Projection: 5 HRs/40 RBIs/30 SBs/.275/.350/.375'
Ian Desmond SS – Washington Nationals
ADP: 212 (NL Only) Earliest: 198 Drafted: 15.0%
Opening Day Assignment: Starting SS in WAS
Analysis: Desmond inherits the SS spot left open when Cristian Guzman was moved to 2B. The wild card will be if the Nats end up signing Orlando Hudson, which would crush Desmond’s value for 2010. In 82 at-bats last year, he put up four HRs and 12 RBIs, while hitting .280. Sample size is small, but it was enough to make him the front-runner for the starting SS job. Desmond has shown pretty good pop in the minor leagues, thus, it isn’t of the question for him to be a 10-15 HR guy.
He comes in around the 12th best SS in the NL, so you are looking at a MI play only. His draft position is a tad low, and I think if you reach on him a round or two early it will be a good move.
Projection: 400 ABs/.270/.330/.435/10 HRs/55 RBIs/15 SBs
David Freese 3B – St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 332 Earliest: 272 Drafted: 2.1%
Opening Day Assignment: Starting 3B in STL
Analysis: Freese was supposed to be the starting 3B last year for the Cardinals when Troy Glaus went down with an injury. It never happened and everyone that grabbed him in NL-only leagues (myself included) dropped him just as fast too.
Freese is an older prospect at 26 years of age, but there are no roadblocks – so it’s sink or swim for him in 2010. When looking at Freese there are some things to like and some red flags.
The Good – He’s hit .300 at every level in the minors with strong OPS numbers.
The Bad – His BABIP is ridiculous; mostly over .350; the K% over 20%
“The Bad” tells me is he’s more likely to be a .265 hitter at the big league level; not .300. If everything goes right, Freese could be a Top 15 3B in 2010, which would put in that 250 ADP range. Freese is a good candidate for NL-only leagues at 3B or CI spots.
Projection: 500 ABs/18 HRs/70 RBIs/.265/.335/.440
