I still can’t believe that Justin Smoak and Matt Wieters were in the same high school lineup. Seriously, you know there’s a former high school pitcher out there who is still suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder as a result of the damage the Smoak/Wieters duo laid on him. Reach out to us at MLBFP if you’re that pitcher, we would love to relive some of your experiences against them – as a form of “therapy,” of course.
Justin Smoak was No. 11 on my Top 200 Fantasy Prospects preseason list in 2009. I predicted he would be a fantasy stud within four years. Despite some of his struggles last year, I am firmly sticking to my original prediction.
Smoak posted the following stats across three levels of the minor leagues in 2009 (Rookie, Double-A, and Triple-A): .290 BA/12 HRs/.410 OBP/.443 SLG. The 6-4, 220-pound first baseman displayed his tremendous plate patience throughout the season – with a 14.0-plus% walk rate at every level. Notably, Smoak was stellar at Double-A (.328 BA/.930 OPS), but struggled at Triple-A (.244 BA/.723 OPS).
Just like Madison Bumgarner, Smoak had his fair share of critics this offseason. Smoak didn’t produce the type of power numbers many expected last year in the minors. Specifically, along with only smacking 12 HRs, and having a mere .443 SLG, Smoak’s ISOs sat at .153 at Double-A and a measly .117 at Triple-A. In addition, despite the fact he’s a switch-hitter, Smoak struggled against lefties, hitting only .214, with 3 HRs, and a .626 OPS. The concerns regarding Smoak’s Triple-A numbers, power, and ability to hit southpaws are certainly valid based on his production from last year.
Am I worried about his long-term fantasy future? Nope. As far as his performance at Triple-A, let’s give him a break, it was a 197 AB sample size. Smoak made it quite clear this offseason that he can still rake by winning the MVP award at the 2009 Baseball World Cup, hitting .291 with nine bombs. I am confident he will carry that momentum into the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) in 2010.
His power? C’mon, this guy hit a record 62 home runs at the University of South Carolina. The pop will come at advanced levels as he refines his swing. Most importantly, Smoak needs to keep his hands back just a tad longer as he releases his massive swing. This slight adjustment will produce more of those fanta-sexy bombs we all cherish. Smoak might not hit 40-plus HRs per year on a regular basis, but 30-35 HRs per season is almost a certainty once he reaches his prime.
Finally, let’s not overreact to the stats against lefties. Smoak hit .337 against lefties at South Carolina and .317 against lefties in his first season of pro ball (2008). You can’t judge a fantasy prospect book by one season’s worth of numbers. Further, patience is one of the greatest fantasy virtues. Do I need to spit anymore tiresome clichés to get my point across?
Smoak will receive a big league promotion after the All-Star break. Do you really believe Vladimir Guerrero will stay healthy all season AND Chris Davis will produce for a full season. A spot will open in the Rangers’ lineup and Smoak will grab it. Take a late risk on him in deeper redraft leagues or follow him closely on the waiver wire. In keeper leagues, he should already be long gone in existing leagues, and will be expensive in new leagues. That said, he’s worth the jacked-up price whether you have to acquire him via trade or through the draft.
