by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer
Balancing long-term potential with immediate impact is the hardest part of ranking fantasy prospects. Is it more important for owners to know about a 19-year-old who could be the next Carlos Beltran in three years, or a 24-year-old shortstop who will likely hit .300 in 2010? Decisions such as these are nearly impossible to make, but are exactly the kinds of questions I will be trying to determine in MLBFP’s Top 10 Fantasy Prospects By Division Series.
The NL East is a future fantasy goldmine, containing the two best prospects in all of baseball: in Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg. This division is as good a choice as any to kick off the Top 10 Fantasy Prospect Series.
The Top 10
1) Jason Heyward (OF, Atlanta Braves) ETA: 2010
What is there to say about Heyward that hasn’t already been said a thousand times? A five-tool outfielder, the 20-year-old prospect tore the cover off the ball last season, hitting .323-17-63 with 10 stolen bases between stops at Single, Double, and Triple-A. Heyward will be given the chance to win the everyday right-field job out of spring training, and, given that his competition currently comes in the form of Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera, his odds are pretty good. If he gets 500 at-bats this season, Heyward could post numbers along the lines of .285-18-80 with 10 stolen bases. As he progresses in his career, Heyward should resemble a slimmer, in-his-prime Carlos Lee, and consistently hit 30-plus homeruns with a .320 batting average and 10 stolen bases. Those numbers would make him a top five fantasy outfielder and a top 20 player overall.
2) Stephen Strasburg (SP, Washington Nationals) ETA: 2010
It’s pretty fashionable right now to predict that Strasburg will be a top-five fantasy pitcher by mid-June. Strasburg’s talent is undeniable, and in keeper leagues, I would take him over any minor leaguer, Heyward included. But to predict that any rookie, no matter how good, is going to pitch his first minor league inning in April and be better than Roy Halladay by June, is a bit of a stretch. If the Nationals are smart (and that’s a big if), they will keep Strasburg in the minors until June, delay his arbitration clock, and then let him throw 130-150 innings in the majors this year. Assuming he gets those innings, I could see Strasburg striking out 140 batters with a sub-4.00 ERA and 8-10 wins. That makes Strasburg worth owning in all fantasy leagues, but in non-keeper leagues, I wouldn’t reach for him too early just because he’s a sexy name. His upside is ridiculous, but the innings, the inexperience, and his supporting cast don’t point to absolute stardom just yet. By 2012, however, Strasburg will likely be a top-three fantasy pitcher and a top-25 overall pick.
3) Mike Stanton (OF, Florida Marlins) ETA: Late 2011
Stanton has ridiculous, outrageous power. Ryan-Howard-meets-Adam-Dunn kind of power. And that makes him an absolute fantasy gem. Exactly five players hit 40 or more homeruns last season, and only six more matched or exceeded 35. Stanton has the capability to reach those numbers on a regular basis, but, unlike Dunn or Mark Reynolds, may be able to do so without killing your team’s batting average. Many scouting reports have bemoaned Stanton’s low contact rates and trouble hitting breaking balls, but he was only 19-years-old last season, and has already reached Double-A. Stanton has plenty of time to work on his deficiencies, and if he can hit .280 with a .350 OBP, he could legitimately become a top-15 fantasy player. Even is he never does completely refine his approach, .250 hitters with 40 home run potential certainly still have their place in the fantasy world.
4) Logan Morrison (1B, Florida Marlins) ETA: Late 2010
Ever fantasy owner wants their first baseman to be one of the lynchpins of their offense, and that is exactly what Morrison has the potential to be in the future. A good hitter, who has improved his OBP steadily over the past three seasons, Morrison has been slowed down only by a wrist injury he suffered last season, which hampered his ability to hit for power. Many experts have brushed this injury aside, and I will gladly defer to their superior medical knowledge, but I also know that wrist injuries are to hitters what elbow injuries are to pitchers, and that makes me leery. If he does fully recover, Morrison can become a Lance Berkman-type .300-30-100 player, which would make him a top-25 fantasy contributor overall. I’m still cautiously optimistic about Morrison’s future, but want to see how quickly his power returns before I completely regain faith.
5) Dominic Brown (OF, Philadelphia Phillies) ETA: 2011
A five-tool player, who Keith Law affectionately refers to as a “freak,” Brown could become a better player than Morrison down the load, but is ranked below him because he is unlikely to contribute at all in 2010. That the Phillies were ok with giving up Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor, but refused to part with Brown, should tell you all you need to know about his skill set. A potential fantasy stud, the highest ceiling for Brown is what B.J. Upton was supposed to be; a .290 hitter with 25-plus homerun power and the ability to steal 20-30 stolen bases annually. More conservative predictions would have Brown posting a .280-20-80 line with 20 stolen bases, which is what he’s more likely to produce when he first joins the big leagues. While Philadelphia’s outfield is currently stacked, Jayson Werth is a free agent after the year, and the Phillies would be wise to let him walk and allow Brown to compete for the job. In 2011, Brown will be an excellent late round pick, but he’s not worth drafting in 2010.
6) Derek Norris (C, Washington Nationals) ETA: Late 2012
Norris is unlikely to make an impact in fantasy leagues for quite a while, but he’s ranked so highly because he has the opportunity to be an exceptionally rare fantasy asset: an offensively valuable catcher. Norris built on his breakout 2008 campaign last year, and put up a .286-23-84 line in Single-A, all at the age of 19. For comparison, Brian McCann’s stat line last year read .281-21-94, and he was among the top five most valuable fantasy backstops. Buster Posey and Carlos Santana aside (and assuming Jesus Montero moves from behind the plate), Norris is the best fantasy catching prospect in baseball right now. Hopefully the Nationals don’t rush him, and give Norris an entire season at Double-A. If he produces like he did in 2009, Norris will likely be a top-15 fantasy prospect next season. A relatively unknown prospect headed into last year, there is an off-chance Norris may still be available in some dynasty leagues. If he is, he should be picked up immediately.
7) Jenrry Mejia (SP, New York Mets) ETA: 2011
Mejia skyrocketed up nearly everyone’s prospect rankings in 2009, as he transformed from an intriguing but unproven 18-year-old into an electric 19-year-old. Mejia dominated Single-A, posting an ERA of 1.97 with a 7.89 K/9 ratio. Mejia did face some adversity once promoted to Double-A, but still posted a sub-4.50 ERA while improving his K/9 ratio to 9.54. Mejia is a ways away from having significant fantasy value, and his control (3.71 BB/9) is a little concerning, but he has the upside of a frontline fantasy starter. An optimistic projection would have Mejia posting a 3.50 ERA with 190 strikeouts and 12-16 wins sometime in the not-too-distant future. Hopefully, the Mets will allow him to take his time, and won’t rush him in an attempt to aid their pitching-starved major league roster. He will likely be well worth the wait, and is a good pickup in all dynasty leagues.
8) Wilmer Flores (SS/3B, New York Mets) ETA: 2013
Flores’ 2009 stats are pretty underwhelming: .265-3-35 in nearly 500 at-bats in Single-A. What makes Flores so special, however, is that he put up those numbers at the age of 17. There’s is no denying Flores has the raw skills to carry a special bat. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, his lack of mobility and speed means that his odds of staying at shortstop are slim to none. Regardless of his position, Flores has a chance to be a big-time fantasy contributor, which explains why, although he’s probably three full seasons away from seeing major league at-bats, he makes this list. If Flores has a good year in 2010, he will most likely be a top-15 fantasy prospect in 2011. Grab him in dynasty leagues if you can.
9) Fernando Martinez (OF, New York Mets) ETA: 2010
Martinez was initially vastly overrated, struggled in 2009, and is now somewhat underrated. A potentially above-average everyday outfielder, Martinez is only 21, and still has plenty of time to get his career back on track. His biggest problem so far has been his lack of health; to this point in his career, Martinez has made J.D. Drew look like Cal Ripken Jr. If Martinez were given 500 healthy major league at-bats this year, he could easily hit .280-15-70 with 10 stolen bases, making him a decent third or fourth outfielder in NL-only leagues, and a borderline bench player in regular leagues. The problem, however, is that between his injury history and the current composition of the Mets’ outfield, Martinez is unlikely to get more than 300 at-bats. He is worth a flier in the late rounds of any draft, and is especially worthy of consideration in keeper leagues, but should not be counted on for significant production in 2010.
10) Drew Storen (RP, Washington Nationals) ETA: 2010
Storen does not have as high of a ceiling as several other prospects in the NL East, but takes the final spot in my top 10 simply because he is very likely to be a fantasy contributor by midseason. A three-pitch reliever with outstanding control, Storen will likely be shuffled between Double and Triple-A until June, so that the Nationals can delay his arbitration clock. The signing of Matt Capps hurts Storen’s chances to close this year, but Storen has better stuff than Capps and will likely be the closer by mid-2011. Even if he isn’t compiling saves, Storen will likely be a decent pick-up for fantasy owners, as he should provide Ks and a great WHIP, along with some holds and vulture wins. Storen probably shouldn’t be drafted in regular 10x10 leagues just yet, but is a nice late-round pick in NL-only leagues, and should be monitored very closely in leagues that score holds.
The Next 5
11) Julio Teheran (SP, Atlanta Braves) ETA: 2013
Teheran has the most upside of any pitching prospect not named Strasburg in the division, but is several years away from a big league appearance. His 96 mph fastball and improving secondary pitches give him the ceiling of a future ace or dominant closer.
12) Phillippe Aumont (SP, Philadelphia Phillies) ETA: 2011
Aumont’s talent dictates him being higher on this list, but as of 2009, it looks like he will be a reliever. If he closes, Aumont will still be a very valuable fantasy asset, but his injury history knocks him below the more projectable Teheran and the nearly MLB-ready Storen.
13) Freddie Freeman (1B, Atlanta Braves) ETA: 2011
Freeman’s power diminished last season, leaving many to fear he’s more Casey Kotchman than Billy Butler. If Freeman regains his power, he will likely be a top-30 fantasy prospect next year. If not, he might fall out of the top-100 entirely.
14) Ike Davis (1B, New York Mets) ETA: 2011
One of the Mets’ first round pick in 2008 (along with Reese Havens), Davis absolutely crushes right-handed pitching, but really struggles against lefties. If he can solve this problem, he will be a top-15 fantasy first baseman. If not, he’s the second coming of Adam LaRoche: still valuable, but for fantasy owners, a mediocre corner infield option at best.
15) Ian Desmond (SS, Washington Nationals) ETA: 2010
Other players, such as Matt Dominguez, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado, are much better prospects, but Desmond is likely to contribute in 2010. He will never be a fantasy stud, but could hit .280-10-55 with 10 stolen bases, which, because of positions scarcity, would make him draft-worthy in NL-only leagues.
