
Here at MLBFP, we’re all about prospects, but just to show you how well rounded we are, we’ve decided to highlight some older fantasy contributors to target and some others avoid in 2010. I won’t analyze the obvious. Yes, you should still draft Ichiro Suzuki and Mariano Rivera, and no, you shouldn’t draft Livan Hernandez, tempting as it may be. Instead, I’ll take a gander at where some of your favorite fantasy elders are being drafted and tell you where they should be going, as they cling to the edge of fantasy relevance.
First up are the grizzly vets who are undervalued heading into the 2010 season. The players listed below have to be 35 by opening day and are not ranked, but rather presented in alphabetical order below. Feel free to comment below, and let me know what you think of my age 35+ sleepers for 2010.
All Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are courtesy of Mock Draft Central.
Bobby Abreu (OF, Los Angeles Angels) Age: 36
Last season, both the Angels and fantasy owners alike found a steal in Abreu, as he had a phenomenal year despite leaving the vaunted Yankee offense. Bobby is an extraordinarily consistent five-category fantasy producer, and is somewhat undervalued headed into the 2010 season. For his career, he’s averaged lines of .299-21-99 with 29 SB, but is no longer considered an elite fantasy option. Abreu’s current ADP is 75, and he’s being taken well after hit-or-miss outfielders such as Curtis Granderson and B.J. Upton, whose upsides are only slightly better than what Abreu produces year-after-year. I see Abreu batting third in the Angels’ lineup this season, a perfect spot in Los Angeles, as manager Mike Sciocia will allow him to steal freely despite also being counted on as a run producer. In spite of his age, an injury is not a concern for this all-time great Venezuelan. The last time he played under 150 games was his rookie season…in 1997! I expect Abreu to essentially duplicate his 2009 stats: .290-16-100 with 26 SB and 90 R. Those numbers would make him a good second fantasy outfielder, and someone I would feel confident about using a sixth or seventh round selection on.
Octavio Dotel (CL, Pittsburgh Pirates) Age: 36
The NL Central has managed to make respectable closers out of Salomon Torres, Matt Capps, and Derrick Turnbow in recent years. That should say all you need to know about Dotel’s chances for success in 2010, as he is the favorite to win the closer job in Pittsburgh. With a current ADP of 253, Dotel is being taken after set-up men such as Fernando Rodney and JP Howell, even in re-draft leagues. I’m not suggesting that Dotel is going to be a Top 10 closer this year, but I do believe he has more value than a middle reliever. Dotel’s BB/9 rate of 5.20 is certainly troubling, but represents a significant increase from his career average, and his K/9 rate of 10.98 means that Octavio will at least provide 70-80 Ks to help offset his unsightly WHIP. With only Joel Hanrahan breathing down his neck, I like Dotel to keep the job for the majority of the year. Fantasy owners are used to making concessions for saves and Dotel is an under-the-radar, solid third fantasy closer who is capable of grabbing 30 saves with a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.50 WHIP. Don’t reach for him, but Dotel provides solid value for where he’s being taken right now.
Vladimir Guerrero (DH, Texas Rangers) Age: 35
Once a perennial first round fantasy stud, Guerrero had a down year in his final season in Los Angeles. Injuries limited him to just 383 ABs and below 25 homeruns for the first time since 1997. It will be strange seeing Vlad play in his AL West rival’s uniform, but this could be a blessing in disguise for fantasy owners. His career numbers in Texas are ridiculous and include a 44 game hitting streak against the Rangers from 2004-2006. Arlington’s hitter-friendly ballpark coupled with Texas’ great lineup point to a rebound year for Guerrero. His transition to full-time DH duties should help him stay healthy, as well. Vlad was sapped of much of his power last year due to knee injuries; thus, his HR/FB rate fell to 11.5%, which is nearly 6% lower than his career average. Vlad’s days as a base stealer are long gone, but I like him to be a four-category producer this season, hitting .310-25-100 with 90 R. Those numbers mean he’s vastly undervalued, as his current ADP sits at 140. Grab Guerrero in the 10th round, and watch him be a key cog in your fantasy offense in 2010.
Trevor Hoffman (CL, Milwaukee Brewers) Age: 42
Hoffman may be the oldest player on this list, but shows no signs of slowing down. At the age of 41, he had yet another All-Star season in 2009. Hoffman is not an exciting or flashy closer, but gets the job done with his plus control and phenomenal changeup. It is exactly this skill set that has allowed Hoffman to stay productive into his senior years, as he doesn’t rely on fastball velocity to get anyone out the way many closers do. Hoffman’s ADP is 169, and he’s being drafted 20th among closers, behind wildcards such as Rafael Soriano and David Aardsma. Hoffman won’t have nearly as many strikeouts as other closers, but is a very safe bet to produce 35+ saves, which makes him undervalued in the 17th round. Hoffman’s ERA should rise from last year’s career-best 1.83, as his BABIP was an insanely lucky .240, but I still like Hoffman to grab 37 saves and 50 Ks with a sub-2.50 ERA and sub-1.10 WHIP. Those numbers would make Hoffman a Top 15 fantasy closer, and someone I’d be comfortable relying on as my second closing option in mixed leagues.
Hideki Matsui (DH, Los Angeles Angels) Age: 35
Matsui was a great signing for the Angels, as he should replace a fair amount of the production that the Halo’s lost when they let Guerrero walk. I like Matsui to hit sixth in the Angel’s order, and with Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Kendry Morales hitting in front of him, he should get plenty of RBI opportunities. Matsui’s current ADP is a lowly 259. He’s being selected after players like Mark DeRosa, Garrett Atkins, and Edwin Encarnacion, all of whom he’ll easily out-produce. Matsui presents the greatest injury risk among all of the players listed, and while the Angels’ rumored plans to give him some time in the outfield would help his fantasy value, it would also increase the likelihood that he misses serious time in 2010. If Matsui stays healthy, he’ll rebound from his lowly .273 BABIP and hit .285-25-90, making him a very nice utility player and an absolute steal in the 26th round. Again, Matsui comes with significant risk, but that late in the draft, it’s a risk an owner can afford to take.
Magglio Ordonez (OF, Detroit Tigers) Age: 36
I consider Ordonez to be one of the most undervalued players headed into the 2010 season, as everyone seems to have given up on him after one “bad” year. One in which he still managed to hit .310! Ordonez’s days of being a dominant, Top 10 fantasy outfielder are over, but he still can be of value to fantasy owners in 2010, especially if picked-up around his current ADP of 269. I like Ordonez far more than players such as Nolan Reimold, Chris Coughlan, and Juan Rivera, who are all being drafted seven to eight rounds earlier. Ordonez’s FB percentage fell to 28.1% in 2009, but I have a hard time believing that someone who has hit 20+ homeruns 8 times in his career has suddenly lost all of his power overnight. Expect Ordonez to rebound and hit .315-22-95 in 2010, making him a fine fourth fantasy outfielder and a steal in the 28th round. Even if Ordonez’s power never returns, he’s a near lock to hit .300+ and can help you as a bench player.
Jorge Posada (C, New York Yankees) Age: 38
As an avid Red Sox fan who grew up idolizing Jason Varitek, there are few players I loathe more than Jorge Posada. That doesn’t change the fact that I expect him to be a fantasy asset, yet again, in 2010. Aside from 2008, when a shoulder injury completely derailed his season, Posada has been a fantasy stud since the turn of the century, contributing solidly in three offensive categories; all while maintaining catcher eligibility. Posada will again bat in the middle of the best lineup in baseball and play half of his games in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he’ll continue to make good use of the wind tunnel in right field when batting left-handed. These factors lead me to believe that Posada will contribute another solid fantasy season, hitting .280-22-80 with 70 R. Given the dearth of offensive talent at the catcher position, that would likely make Posada a Top 7 fantasy catcher, quite worthy of his ADP of 113. Miguel Montero, Ryan Doumit, and Geovany Soto may have higher upsides, but Posada is the safest bet to produce.









