by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer
Next up for our Top 10 Fantasy Prospects by Division Series is the National League Central, a division that contains both immediate fantasy contributors and some sleepers for 2012 and beyond. Stocked with professional bats and high-upside arms, the NL Central is a division fantasy owners are going to want to pay attention to for the next several years.
The Top 10
1) Pedro Alvarez (3B, Pittsburgh Pirates) ETA: Late 2010
Alvarez, the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, is a big, 23-year-old lefty with huge power. After struggling in Single-A to start the season, Pittsburgh decided to promote Alvarez to Double-A anyway, where he promptly raised his batting average and slugging percentage by around .100 points each. Alvarez does have some significant flaws. He will very likely have to move to first base down the line, diminishing his fantasy value, and there’s legitimate concern over his troubles with left-handed pitchers. But even if Alvarez never gains complete mastery over lefties, he will be an enormous fantasy asset. By 2012, Alvarez, who will be playing half of his games in lefty-friendly PNC Park, could be posting Justin Morneau-like lines of .290-30-100, which would make him a top-30 fantasy player. Alvarez will be long-gone in dynasty leagues, and is largely ignored in re-draft leagues, but that might be a mistake. He’s unlikely to win the Pirates’ third base job out of spring training, but could easily hold the position by July. If he gets 300 ABs, a .275-18-55 line is not out of the question. That makes him a great late round pick in NL-only leagues, and an intriguing grab in mixed leagues as well.
2) Aroldis Chapman (SP, Cincinnati Reds) ETA: 2011
Based on pure talent alone, Chapman is not only the top fantasy prospect in the NL Central, but he’s probably a Top Five fantasy prospect overall. Armed with an explosive triple-digit fastball, a filthy slider, and a developing changeup, Chapman has the arsenal needed to be a true ace at the major league level. What troubles scouts and fantasy owners alike about Chapman, however, is his lack of control and command. Chapman’s ceiling is ridiculously high. If everything clicks and he starts locating his pitches, Chapman could easily post Johan Santana-like numbers if he starts or Billy Wagner-like numbers if he closes. What prevents me from being a real Chapman fan, however, is that there is a real potential for Daniel Cabrera-syndrome here: a pitcher with unparalleled stuff, but an inability to get the ball over the plate with any consistency. Chapman should be taken in all dynasty leagues at this point, but personally, I will not be drafting him in any re-draft leagues this year. There’s an off chance he will skyrocket his way through the Reds’ farm system, but it’s far more likely that Chapman will need to spend significant time in the minor leagues to refine his control and command.
3) Starlin Castro (SS, Chicago Cubs) ETA: 2011
One of the most exciting players in the minors, Castro has done nothing but hit since his professional career began in 2007. Just 19-years-old last season, Castro hit .299-3-49 with a .342 OBP and 28 stolen bases between Single and Double-A. Many describe Castro as a five-tool prospect, but before I peg anyone to hit 15-20 homeruns a year, I want to see them hit more in a minor league season than Castro’s career best of three. If Castro doesn’t develop power, he’s still capable of hitting .300-5-70 with 25 stolen bases, which would make him an enormous fantasy asset due to his position. If he does develop power on top of his already impressive repertoire, than Castro could turn into Brandon Phillips with a higher batting average. An obvious must-have in dynasty leagues, Castro would be best served if allowed to spend all season in Triple-A. He’s still very young, and the Cubs can afford to wait since Ryan Theriot is a league-average shortstop. But there’s a chance Castro could force his way into the major league lineup at some point in 2010, and if he’s called up, he should be picked up in all but the shallowest mixed leagues.
4) Alcides Escobar (SS, Milwaukee Brewers) ETA: 2010
Of all the players on this list, Escobar is the most likely to make a significant fantasy impact in 2010. After hitting a very respectable .298-4-34 with 42 stolen bases in the minors last year, Escobar was promoted late in the season, and batted .304-1-11 with four stolen bases in 125 major league ABs. If you project that line over a full season, it’s a pretty accurate representation of what Escobar is likely to do in his career. What Escobar doesn’t do is hit for power or walk, but the former is typical of fantasy middle infielders and the latter is less significant in fantasy than in the actual game. The Brewers traded J.J. Hardy this offseason, meaning that the starting shortstop job is Escobar’s to lose in spring training. Knowing that, I expect Escobar to get 500 ABs and hit .285-7-50 with 25 stolen bases, making him a good shortstop in NL-only leagues and a decent middle infielder in mixed leagues. As he matures as a major leaguer, Escobar could develop into a Rafael Furcal-type player, and regularly bat .300-10-55 with 30-plus stolen bases, which would make him an asset to any fantasy player.
5) Yonder Alonso (1B, Cincinnati Reds) ETA: 2011
Alonso is in a similar place as fellow first-base prospect Logan Morrison, as he broke his hamate bone last season, limiting him to only 340 plate appearances and zapping him of much of his power. What was good to see, however, was that Alonso still took very professional ABs, and was able to walk nearly as many times (41) as he struck out (46). A natural hitter, Alonso has excelled at every stop on his ascent up Cincinnati’s farm system, and will likely do the same in 2010. He has struggled against left-handed pitching, but most young left-handed batters do. I expect Alonso to split time between double and triple-A this year, and push for the Reds’ starting first base job in 2011, with Joey Votto moving to left field. At his peak, I like Alonso to post Kevin Youkilis-like lines of .300-25-100, albeit with a slightly lower OBP than Boston’s first baseman. Numbers like that would make Alonso a Top 12 fantasy first baseman, and a very solid corner infielder. For 2010, Alonso should go undrafted in re-draft leagues, but owners should pay attention from July onward incase Alonso forces his way onto the big league club sooner than expected.
6) Josh Vitters (3B, Chicago Cubs) ETA: Late 2011
Vitters has more potential than Alonso or Escobar, but has significantly more red flags as well. A great natural hitter, Vitters has the tools to hit .300-30-100 in the majors, and do it consistently. His biggest problems as a prospect are his shaky defense at third base and his utter contempt for walks, which at first glance would appear to be irrelevant to fantasy owners. Upon closer look, however, this could significantly hamper Vitters’ value. If he moves from third to left field, position scarcity knocks him down a few pegs. If he doesn’t increase his walk numbers, his run totals will suffer, and major league pitchers will be able to get him to chase far more easily than their minor league counterparts. There is a lot to like with Vitters, but his star has diminished a bit over the past two seasons. Many initially thought he would be ready by 2010, but now a mid-season call-up in 2011 looks to be the best-case scenario for him. Vitters is still just 20-years-old, and should be owned in all fantasy leagues, but is in danger of becoming more of a solid complementary player than an absolute fantasy stud.
7) Brett Lawrie (2B, Milwaukee Brewers) ETA: 2012
The Brewers’ first round pick in 2008, Lawrie played well last season, hitting .274-13-65 with 19 stolen bases between Single-A and a cameo in Double-A at the season’s end. Another natural hitter, Lawire has a smooth, level swing that should allow him to hit for a decent average with solid power for someone his size. Drafted as a catcher, Lawrie has already had to move from behind the plate, and while he’s currently attempting to learn how to play second base, there is no guarantee he will stay there. Lawrie would make an outstanding offensive middle infielder, but if he has to move to a corner infield or outfield spot, his fantasy value would diminish significantly. Once he reaches the majors, Lawrie projects to hit .290-20-85 with 10 stolen bases, which would make him a premium fantasy second baseman. There’s a lot to like here, but part of me worries about Lawrie becoming the next Todd Frazier: a player with a good bat, but no real position, whose offense never fully develops because of his constant focus on defense. Hopefully, the Brewers learn from the Reds’ mistake and give Lawrie all the time he needs to develop.
8) Jason Castro (C, Houston Astros) ETA: Late 2010
Castro is one of the more easily projectable players on this list, as he is unlikely to ever be a star, but can be the ever-illusive offensively valuable fantasy catcher. Castro hit .300-10-73 with a .380 between Single and Double-A last season, which is a fairly accurate representation of what he can hit for in the majors once he establishes himself. Castro’s defense and leadership skills make him a better MLB prospect than a fantasy one, but a catcher who will boost your average and add decent RBI and run numbers is a player worthy of fantasy mention. With absolutely no one blocking him in Houston, Castro could surprise and take the job out of spring training, but is more likely to get a cup-of-coffee in September and assume the starting role in 2011. Once he does cement himself in Houston’s lineup, Castro should hit .290-15-75 on a fairly consistent basis, making him a Top 12 fantasy catcher. Castro shouldn’t be drafted in April, but if he’s called up, may be a better fantasy option in August and September than players like Kurt Suzuki or Bengie Molina.
9) Shelby Miller (SP, St. Louis Cardinals) ETA: 2013
The top prospect in St. Louis’ system, Miller is so raw and so young that he almost didn’t make this list, but his upside is too large to ignore. A big righty with above average stuff, Miller is somewhat hard to project because of his shaky command and lack of professional experience. The Cardinals’ first-round pick in last year’s draft, Miller threw just three innings in Single-A last season, where he is likely to spend all of 2010 as well. Miller is farther away from making a fantasy impact than anyone else on this list, but has the upside of a true number one starter, capable of putting up 15-18 wins with 180 strikeouts and a sub-3.50 ERA. Miller has no shot at making a seeing the majors for several years, and because he was overshadowed my fellow ’09 draft picks such as Tyler Matzek, Zack Wheeler, and Matthew Purke, there’s a good chance he’s available in dynasty leagues. I won’t go as far as to say he’s a must-have, but Miller is certainly a good choice to round out a minor-league roster. His owners will have to be patient, but they could ultimately be rewarded with Josh Johnson-type numbers.
10) Jay Jackson (SP, Chicago Cubs) ETA: 2011
A ninth-round pick in the 2008 draft, Jackson looks to be a steal so far, as he has reached Triple-A in just his second professional season. An athletic righty with three above-average pitches and a developing changeup, Jackson has been pushed fairly aggressively by the Cubs, but has fared well, as he posted a 2.98 ERA with 127 strikeouts in 127 innings last year in stops between Single, Double, and Triple-A. There is some temptation for the Cubs to continue pushing Jackson and hope he can make an appearance as a reliever later in 2010, but the smart move is for them to allow him to develop, as he still has significant potential as a starter. Jackson profiles as a number three starter on a contender, who could grab 14-16 wins while posting a sub-4.00 ERA and around 160 strikeouts, if given 200 innings. Those numbers would make him a sold fifth fantasy pitcher in mixed leagues, but his WHIP will likely prevent him from ever being a fantasy stud. Still, pitchers like Jackson are quite useful in the fantasy world, and if owners are looking for immediate impact, Jackson is an even better pick than the higher ranked Miller. Jackson is probably unclaimed in many dynasty leagues, and while he lacks tremendous upside, he’s also a pretty safe bet to be a solid fantasy contributor.
The Next Five
11) Todd Frazier (2B/3B/OF, Cincinnati Reds) ETA: 2010
Cincinnati has moved Frazier all over the diamond in an attempt to get his bat to the big leagues sooner, but all the defensive tampering has prevented him from ever putting up the monstrous offensive season that many think he is capable of. Many will be surprised to see Frazier so low on this list, and if he can stick at second or third I would re-rank him at number seven, but I still see a long-term left fielder, and that significantly lowers his fantasy value.
12) Jose Tabata (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) ETA: 2011
I’m growing tired of hearing all about Tabata’s potential while watching him post mediocre results. His all-star caliber tools are too impressive to ignore, but this is the last season I’m willing to give Tabata the benefit of the doubt. If he doesn’t perform in 2010, I will no longer think he’s worth owning in dynasty leagues.
13) Jiovanni Mier (SS, Houston Astros) ETA: Late 2012
One of my favorite fantasy sleepers, Mier is a few seasons away, but I’m a big believer in his solid pop and above average speed. Mier’s ceiling has him hitting .280-15-65 with 25 stolen bases at the major league lever, making him a potential Top 10 fantasy shortstop. Grab him in dynasty leagues now.
14) Tony Sanchez (C, Pittsburgh Pirates) ETA: Late 2011
The Pirates were slammed for taking Sanchez with the fourth overall pick in the 2009 draft, but he’s still likely to be a solid fantasy contributor within the next two seasons. Because of the negativity surrounding him on draft day, Sanchez is actually a fairly underrated prospect. He’ll never be a star, but should hit .280-15-75, which would make him a solid, Kurt Suzuki-esque fantasy catcher.
15) Andrew Cashner (P, Chicago Cubs) ETA: 2011
This pick was almost Cubs outfielder Brett Jackson or Reds third baseman Juan Francisco, but the former is too far away and the latter has too many red flags to bump Cashner off my list. Cashner is currently a starter in the Cubs’ system, but has closer written all over him. If converted back to the bullpen, as I expect, he could be ready by 2011, and should post solid strikeout numbers with a solid WHIP.
