MLB Fantasy Prospects

Toronto Blue Jays Scouting Jose Julio Ruiz (1B/OF, Free Agent, Cuba); Other Cuban Free Agents Still Waiting For A Call

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Yesterday, Morgan Campbell of the Toronto Star provided a nice update on a few Cuban free agents that have been making the rounds. In particular, he reported that Blue Jays’ general manager Alex Anthopoulos was present for a private workout of Jose Julio Ruiz, who has also been linked to the Texas Rangers.  My amigo Cubano, from Cuban Ball Players, initially broke the news of the tryout and predicted that it “…will be probably the last workout session for José Julio Ruiz before deciding which team to play for.”

Campbell further reports that Leslie Anderson, who I’ve covered in the past, is practicing with a pro team in Mexico while awaiting a Major League contract and Yuniesky Maya remains unsigned despite rumors that he’s close to signing with the Red Sox. Listed as 28-years-old, there hasn’t been much hype surrounding this guy. Cubano ranks Maya as his fourth best Cuban MLB prospect, but I believe his age has been a detriment to his signing a big league contract.

Hey Cubano, could you possibly leave us a comment as to why your “cuarto mejor prospecto” has yet to find a team?

Today, Campbell wrote a feature article focusing on the recent influx of Cubans trying to break into the MLB. In an excellent piece of reporting, he suggests that Dayan Viciedo’s contract with the White Sox may have been the watershed moment that caused so many Cuban players to defect:

As years passed, the slow leak of top talent continued – Orlando and Livan Hernandez, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras all left one by one. But none of those departures inspired a surge like the one that has occurred over the last 18 months.

[…]three players' departures – Angels star Kendry Morales, Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar and White Sox prospect Dayan Viciedo – changed players' minds about leaving Cuba.

Neither Morales nor Escobar was a full-time starter in Cuba, but each has excelled in the majors[…]eyes across the island opened wide when Viciedo signed with the White Sox.

Touted as Cuba's next great shortstop, Viciedo entered the National Series as a 15-year-old in 2005, and hit 14 home runs the next year. From there[…]his production declined, yet after defecting in 2008 he still signed a four-year, $10-million (all figures U.S.) deal with Chicago.

"Viciedo had a very significant impact on the thinking of Cuban players[…]They thought, `If he can get $10 million, then what am I worth?"

Very interesting stuff there. Cuban veterans such as Anderson, Maya, and Ruiz are learning an important lesson about MLB executives – it’s all about potential. General managers and scouts don’t care about past accolades in a league where they have little access, control, nor influence. These clubs want to invest in skills they can develop within their own organization, with coaches they trust. Whether it be with the Blue Jays, the Rangers, or some other team, my sense is that Ruiz will sign first, but not for the dinero he envisioned when he started this journey.

2010 MLBFP Divisional Series: Top 10 American League East Fantasy Prospects

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

The American League East features perhaps the most major league-ready talent of any division, and contains several excellent candidates for AL Rookie of the Year in 2010. The division is typically a nightmare for pitchers, but eight of the 15 players on this list pitch so well, they’re top prospects anyway. Without further ado, here are your Top 10 AL East Fantasy Prospects for 2010 and beyond.

The Top 10

1) Desmond Jennings (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: Mid-2010

One of the most exciting prospects in baseball, Jennings has a real chance at making the most fantasy impact of any rookie this year. After battling injuries in 2007 and 2008, Jennings finally stayed healthy in 2009, and hit .318-11-62 with 52 stolen bases and a .419 OBP between Double and Triple-A. A true five-tool talent, Jennings also has the ability to develop into a five-category fantasy stud, as many scouts believe he will develop 15-20 homerun power. Desmond will likely start the year in Triple-A, but considering he only has to outplay Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler to join the Rays’ outfield, he will probably be up for good by June. If he gets 400 ABs, Jennings could hit .290-5-40 with around 35 stolen bases in 2010. As he progresses in his career, he should become remarkably similar to the man who will flank him in the outfield: Carl Crawford. Needless to say, Crawford-type players are extremely valuable in the fantasy world, and don’t often last to far into the third-round of any drafts. Fantasy owners should watch Jennings closely in spring training, and if it looks like he’s going to break Tampa’s roster in April, he’s a solid late-round pick in all leagues.

2) Brian Matusz (SP, Baltimore Orioles)  ETA: 2010

Arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball not named Stephen Strasburg, Matusz skyrocketed through the Orioles’ farm system, reaching the majors in his first professional season. A big lefty with above-average stuff and polished command, Matusz dominated in the minors last season, going 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and a 9.64 K/9 rate in 113 innings between High-A and Double-A. Once he reached the majors, Matusz was no longer lights-out, but more than held his own, going 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 Ks in eight starts. Like most pitchers who debut in the AL East, Matusz is unlikely to completely dominate right away, but could be one of the better fantasy pitchers in all of baseball a few years down the line. Matusz’ good stuff and exceptional makeup remind me of left-handed Dan Haren, and that’s the type of player Matusz projects as. Matusz will likely make the Orioles’ rotation out of spring training, and should grab 10-13 wins, with a sub 4.50 ERA and 160 strikeouts, making him a solid option in AL-only leagues and an interesting late-round flyer in mixed leagues.

3) Jesus Montero (C/DH, New York Yankees)  ETA: 2011

Yankee and Met prospects are often overhyped, but, unfortunately for my fellow Red Sox fans, Montero is the real deal. One of the 10 best prospects in the minors, Jesus Montero can flat out rake. At the young age of 19, Montero crushed minor league pitchers to the tune of .337-17-70, while splitting time between High-A and Double-A, last season. The Yankees are keeping him at catcher for now, but Montero is highly unlikely to stay behind the plate, where he would likely make Mike Piazza look like Yadier Molina defensively. While that puts a slight damper on his fantasy value, it doesn’t matter where Montero plays, because he’s going to be an absolute fantasy stud. Montero projects as a pure hitter in the Frank Thomas mold, who should hit .300-35-110 on an annual basis, with a solid OBP to boot. Jennings and Matusz are higher on this list because of their proximity to the majors, but Montero is likely to be the best of the bunch. Montero’s biggest problem right now is his lack of a position, as he is blocked at first base by Mark Teixiera, and the Yankees are unlikely to want a young hitter to clog their DH spot. While his bat will create a logjam, Montero is the type of player you make room for, and he should start receiving some regular big league at-bats by 2011.

4) Brett Wallace (1B/3B Toronto Blue Jays)  ETA: Mid-2010

One of the better pure hitters in the upper minors, Wallace was traded twice in the past season, first to Oakland as part of a deal for Matt Holliday, and then to Toronto in a straight swap for fellow Top 50 prospect Michael Taylor. A smooth-swinging lefty, Wallace hit .293-20-63 last season between Double and Triple-A, and actually hit better in the higher league. Although he has been able to stay at third base so far, Wallace is likely destined for first, which hampers his fantasy value. Wallace profiles as a borderline Top 10 fantasy first baseman capable of hitting .320-20-90 in the majors. Offensively, Wallace is fairly similar to Michael Young, only with a little more pop and less speed. After hitting very well in over 400 ABs at Triple-A, Wallace needs relatively little seasoning before he’s ready for a promotion. Wallace should take over for fantasy non-factor Lyle Overbay as Toronto’s first baseman before seasons end, and will be worthy of fantasy attention from all owners when called up. Unless he looks poised to take the job out of spring training, however, I would not recommend drafting Wallace to start the 2010 season.

5) Wade Davis (SP, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: 2010

Davis is probably the safest bet of any player on this list to have significant fantasy value this season, as unless he has a horrible spring training, he’s slated to be the Ray’s fifth starter. Davis was very good in Triple-A last season, going 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA in 28 starts. In his six major league starts, Davis also pitched well, finishing with a 2-2 record while still keeping his ERA under 4.00. An absolute workhorse on the mound, Davis is more of No. 2 pitcher than an ace, but still has the potential to be a solid fourth or fifth fantasy pitcher for years to come. His heavy sinker and durability point to him becoming a Derek Lowe-type pitcher, capable of winning 14-17 games with a sub-4.00 ERA and 150-170 strikeouts – in a very tough division. If all goes well, Davis should get 30 starts this season, and considering the Rays’ improving offense and spectacular defense, 15 wins is not out of the question. If the Rays solve their pitching logjam by trading Davis to a more pitcher-friendly division, his fantasy value could rise significantly. For now, though, Davis is a nice sleeper pick in mixed leagues and a great grab in AL-only leagues.

6) Jeremy Hellickson (SP, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: Mid-2010

Another major league ready pitcher in the Rays’ system, Hellickson is currently blocked by fellow prospect Wade Davis. The two are generally ranked within a few spots of each other on most prospect lists, and while they are very different pitchers, their upsides are fairly similar. Where as Davis gets the job done with overpowering stuff, Hellickson relies more on control and command, and had a K/9 of 10.4 last season, to go along with a solid BB/9 of just 2.3. Fantasy owners can look forward to Hellickson transforming into a better version of Scott Baker, capable of winning 14-17 games with a sub-4.00 ERA and 160-180 strikeouts per year. Those numbers are remarkably similar to my projection for Davis, and it’s likely that both of these pitchers will be eating up quality innings in Tampa for years to come. Hellickson probably won’t make the Ray’s rotation out of spring training, but he’s likely next in line for starts if any of their current rotation members should struggle or become injured. I don’t recommend drafting Hellickson just yet, but he should definitely be on every owner’s watch list.

7) Casey Kelly (SP, Boston Red Sox)  ETA: Mid-2011

Kelly has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on this list other than Brian Matusz, but is ranked seventh because he is probably a season-and-a-half away from contributing to the major league team. Armed with a good fastball, great changeup, developing curveball, and exceptional command, Kelly used his three-pitch arsenal to shut down Single-A hitters to the tune of a 7-5 record, with a 2.08 ERA and 74 strikeouts, in 95 innings last season. Signed as a two-way athlete, Kelly has given up on his aspirations of playing shortstop, which will likely speed up his development on the mound. With a stacked rotation, the Red Sox have little need to rush Kelly and should let him develop. Still, if Josh Beckett doesn’t resign with the club, Kelly may be called upon to fill his spot in the rotation in late-2011. As I wrote in my breakdown of top Red Sox prospects, Kelly profiles as a Roy Oswalt-type pitcher, capable of winning 15-18 games per season with a sub-3.50 ERA and 170 strikeouts. Those numbers would make Kelly a fantastic number two fantasy starter, and a Top 75 player overall.

8) Kyle Drabek (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)  ETA: Mid-2010

The son of former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, Kyle rebounded from Tommy John surgery to dominate the minors in 2009, as he went 12-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 8.54 K/9 rate between Single and Double-A. Drabek’s fantasy value took a significant hit, however when he was traded from the offensively average NL East to the pitcher’s nightmare that is the AL East. Drabek features a slightly above-average fastball and a developing changeup, but what makes him so good is his devastating, Ben Sheets-like curveball. Drabek’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as the other pitchers on this list, as he profiles as more of a No. 3 starter than an ace, especially in the AL East. His shaky command, average fastball, and explosive curve remind me of former Phillies prospect Gavin Floyd, and I believe that’s the kind of ceiling Drabek has. Because of his name value, Drabek is slightly overvalued in dynasty leagues right now, but he should still be a very useful fourth or fifth fantasy pitcher in the future, capable of netting 15 wins with a sub-4.25 ERA and around 180 K’s in the majors. Drabek will likely start the year at Triple-A, but may force his way into the Jays’ rotation by season’s end.

9) Ryan Westmoreland (OF, Boston Red Sox)  ETA: Mid-2012

Aside from Jesus Montero, Westmoreland has the highest fantasy upside of any player on this list, but falls to number nine because of his distance from the majors and his troubling injury history. A potential five-category fantasy producer, Westmoreland has an advanced feel at the plate that should allow him to hit for average north of .290 on a regular basis. He has above average speed and is an excellent base runner (he went 19-19 in stolen bases last season). Further, his power is continuing to develop. Westmoreland has a long way to go and needs to prove himself against better pitching, but his ceiling is a Grady Sizemore or Matt Kemp-type five-tool center fielder, capable of hitting 30-30 and anchoring both a major league and a fantasy lineup. Westmoreland needs to prove he can stay healthy, and is still mostly projection at this point, but is a must-own in all dynasty leagues. If he gets 400 healthy ABs this season, he could be a Top 10 fantasy prospect at this time next year.

10) Josh Bell (3B, Baltimore Orioles)  ETA: 2011

The Orioles’ third baseman of the future, Bell profiles as a solid power bat at a position where power is becoming increasingly scarce. A future No. 5 hitter, Bell has solid all-around offensive tools, but is special as a left-handed hitter, as hit .339 with 19 HRs from the left side of the plate in 2009. He is technically a switch hitter, but may have to give up on those aspirations soon, as he as been abysmal from the right side of the plate. Bell profiles as Mike Lowell-type offensive player, capable of hitting .300-25-90 on an annual basis. He hit very well in Double-A last season, but should spend most, if not all, of 2010 in Triple-A. Come 2011, however, I expect Bell to be starting at the hot corner for the O’s, and join an impressive nucleus of young players. Bell is a stellar pick in dynasty leagues, but shouldn’t be touched in redraft leagues.

The Next 5

11) Matt Moore (SP, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: 2012

Here’s your super sleeper. Only 20-years-old, Moore has great stuff and only needs to refine his command to become one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He has a ways to go, but Moore has Mark Mulder-type, top-of-the-rotation potential. Grab him in dynasty leagues now.

12) Zack Stewart (SP/RP, Toronto Blue Jays)  ETA: 2010

A foolish give away by Cincinnati in the Scott Rolen-Edwin Encarnacion deal, Stewart has a ceiling of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but might be even more valuable to fantasy owners as a closer. Toronto plans to keep him in the rotation for now, but with a plethora of young starters, Stewart could return to the pen and be closing games by the end of the season.

13) Lars Anderson (1B, Boston Red Sox)  ETA: Mid-2011

After ranking as the Red Sox’ top prospect last year, Anderson had a horrible 2009 season and has seen his stock fall considerably. Still, Anderson has too much potential to ignore, and could still become a Carlos Delgado-like player. Watch Anderson closely for the first half of 2010 before you consider dropping him in dynasty leagues.

14) Jake Arrieta (SP, Baltimore Orioles)  ETA: Mid-2010

Fellow Orioles’ pitcher Zach Britton may be a better long-term prospect, but Arrieta is nearly major league-ready, and should be in the O’s rotation by July. His high walk rates will likely prevent him from ever becoming an elite fantasy pitcher, but he could post Doug Davis-like numbers of 15 wins, a sub-4.50 ERA, and 150-160 strikeouts per year.

15) Reid Brignac (SS, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: 2010

Brignac is a solid – but unspectacular shortstop – who is blocked by Jason Bartlett now and 2008 No. 1 draft pick Tim Beckham later. If given 500 AB’s, Brignac could hit a Mark Teahen-like .280-15-70 with five stolen bases, which would sadly make him fantasy relevant considering his position. Unless he’s traded or Bartlett is injured, however, Brignac will be a utility player at best in 2010.

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Average Draft Position Analysis - 2010 Impact Rookies

Contributed by Michael Rathburn, blogging at Around the Cooler

Finding sleepers – especially impact rookies – is a fantasy baseball owners’ holy grail. With so much information out there these days, it is harder and harder to find a gem. Also, with teams forced to deal with salary constraints, players are being rushed to the majors a lot faster and their development can take a hit.

This is an analysis of the top eligible hitters for the American League/National League Rookie of the Year (“ROY”) award in 2010, along with an examination of their projected role and recommendations on whether you should draft them at their Average Draft Position (“ADP”) or pass on them. ROY eligibility is less than 130 at bats/50 innings pitched/45 days of service time. There were a few guys who just barely missed this list – Alcides Escobar, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, and Daniel Bard.

ADP’s are courtesy of Mock Draft Central with a sample size of 335 drafts from Jan 13 – Jan 29, 2010.

You can find the same ADP analysis for rookie pitchers at my site – Around the Cooler

Jason Heyward OF – Atlanta Braves

ADP: 317  Earliest: 184  Drafted: 19%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #1

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A/Starting RF in ATL

Analysis: If the 2007 draft were held today, Heyward would be the #1 pick – hands down. He has gone through the Atlanta minors like a hot knife through butter, getting better with each level. The temptation is there to slow him down and not rush him, but the talent just overcomes. His rise is very similar to Jay Bruce a couple years ago. The only knock on Heyward has been the nagging injuries, namely the hammy and bruised heel he suffered in the Arizona Fall League.

I’d prefer to see Heyward get those 200-300 at-bats in Triple-A, then come up June/July. Once he comes up, he won’t go back down. There is a little bit of a log-jam in that Matt Diaz did play well in 2009, but that won’t stop Atlanta from bringing up their most exciting hitting prospect since Andruw Jones.

I think the 317 ADP is right on with Heyward in comparing other OFs at the same spot. The key is watching the spring training battle with Diaz. If Heyward wins the spot, then you can project 450 ABs and the numbers should increase by 25%.

Projection: 350 ABs/15 HRs/50 RBIs/.280/.350/.450

Desmond Jennings OF – Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 266  Drafted: 1.8%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #5

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A

Analysis: In 2009, Jennings vaulted himself back into the upper echelon of prospects and lived up to the comparison of a Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton clone.

Jennings’ 2008 season was marred with injuries and question marks started to surface. Jennings put all those question marks to bed with a monster 2009 – 11 HRs/92 RBIs/.320 AVG/52 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A. Jennings probably needs the typical 300-400 at-bats in Triple-A, but a great sign for Jennings is the K/BB ratio. It’s almost 1:1. We’re not talking Cameron Maybin here; think Andrew McCutchen but slightly better. There’s certainly ADP value surrounding Jennings.

I can see the Rays bringing Jennings to the bigs on June 1. Jennings will be most valuable in AL-only league formats. He will at least become a great fourth OF after June 1.

Projection: 400 ABs/10 HRs/65 RBIs/25 SBs

Carlos Santana C – Cleveland Indians

ADP: 326  Earliest: 220  Drafted: 9.3%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #9

Opening Day Assignment: Starting C in Triple-A; with an outside shot to win the starting job in CLE

Analysis: Santana will always be noted for the trade in which the Indians sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The Dodgers already had Russell Martin and Blake has been huge for them. But the Indians got a Top 10 prospect and one of the top two catchers in the minor leagues. The path to the majors isn’t blocked for Santana, but 2 months worth of steady Triple-A pitching, to start the season, will do nothing but help his growth.

Just like Jennings, the thing I love about Santana is the K:BB ratio of 1:1.

There’s an outside shot the Indians will go with Santana on the Opening Day roster, but I doubt it. If you can afford to hold out on a catcher for 2 months, great, if not then you still have a guy who can play UTIL once he comes up. Or you can deal your starting C. Either way these numbers project a Top 15 catcher in mixed leagues and Top 10 in AL only leagues.

Projection: 350 ABs/10 HRs/55 RBIs/.265 AVG/.340 OBP/.450 SLG

 

Justin Smoak 1B – Texas Rangers

ADP: 231 (AL Only)  Drafted: 91.7%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #10

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B at Triple-A

Analysis: Smoak was the 11th pick in the 1st round by the Rangers in 2008. Comps to Mark Teixeira are inevitable. Smoak put up monster numbers at South Carolina but the power hasn’t translated to the minor leagues – as of yet. Also, Smoak only hit .244 at Triple-A last year in 200 at bats, so more seasoning is definitely needed.

The Rangers have a log-jam at 1B/DH right now with Chris Davis and Vladimir Guerrero. Smoak should be the starting 1B for the Rangers in 2011, or at worst the DH, provided the bat carries over this year. I would advise against drafting Smoak in any non-keeper leagues for 2010. If Davis or Guerrerro go down for an extended period of time, he‘s an immediate add in AL-only leagues.

Projection: September promotion; not much value in 2010 unless there’s an injury on the major league roster.

Buster Posey C – San Francisco Giants

ADP: 281  Earliest: 206  Drafted: 64%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #11

Opening Day Assignment: Backup C

Analysis: It sure was looking like Bengie Molina was a lock to sign with the Mets, and Posey would be handed the starting catcher job. But Molina resigned with the Giants, meaning Posey will have to wait until 2011 to receive the starting gig.

A nice #2 C play in NL-only leagues, but in mixed leagues you would only want to own Posey if you had Molina as well.

Projection: 300 at-bats and .280/.330/.420

Pedro Alvarez 1B/3B – Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 333  Earliest: 274  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #13

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A

Analysis: Alvarez was the #2 overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh was commended for drafting him despite his huge signing bonus demands. Alvarez didn’t set the world on fire in 2008, or early 2009, and there were rumors that he was out of shape. Then he got promoted to Double-A and a lot of people were scratching their heads. Well, no one is scratching anymore because he put up .333/.419/.590. There isn’t much of a roadblock at 1B for Alvarez with Jeff Clement. Clement could possibly be moved to C if Ryan Doumit is dealt.

I would like to see Alvarez get as many at-bats in Triple-A before getting the call to the Show. This will give him time to adjust to the pitching at that level, play 1B, and get into shape. Unless there is an injury or he’s hitting .350 at AAA, I think a Late 2010 callup is in order.

Projection: 200 ABs/12 HRs/30 RBIs/.275/.350/.500

Brett Wallace 1B/3B – Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 263  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #23

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A / DH in TOR

Analysis: Wallace came over to the Jays in the deal where Michael Taylor went to Oakland. Taylor was expendable because the Jays were already set in the OF and Lyle Overbay is on a one-year deal. Also, the Jays have a void at DH if Travis Snider can hold up in RF. Wallace has been a part of many discussions – people either love him or hate him. I personally love the guy. He has a very wide lower base and I marvel a dude who has worked his tail off to try and stick at 3B. It does look like he will have to go to 1B / DH, but he’s a hitter. I will take a pure hitter over tools at this stage in the game especially in fantasy baseball. Wallace is a nice play if he lands on the 25-man Opening Day roster.

Projection: 500 ABs/15 HRs/65 RBIs/.280/.330/.450

Scott Sizemore 2B – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 326  Earliest: 200  Drafted: 7.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 2B in DET

Analysis: With the departure of Placido Polanco to the Phillies, the job is Sizemore’s. He did suffer a broken left ankle during the Arizona Fall League, but expects to be 100% by spring training. I’m not a fan of where he’s being drafted. Freddy Sanchez, Kelly Johnson, Luis Castillo, and Alberto Callaspo (a personal favorite) are all better 2nd basemen and being drafted below Sizemore. He’s a nice pick in AL only leagues but only as a MI. The problem with Sizemore is that getting 500 at-bats is not a guarantee with Ramon Santiago also in the mix.

Projection: 400 ABs/.265/.325/.390/10 HRs/60 RBIs/12 SBs

Austin Jackson OF – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 332  Earliest: 236  Drafted: 2.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting CF in DET

Analysis: Jackson was much hyped for the past few years as part of the Yankees organization. He was part of the Curtis Granderson trade that also involved the Diamondbacks. Detroit is hoping that Jackson can win the starting CF spot in spring training to help this deal payoff faster. Jackson is going to be a player who won’t have much fantasy value; but will be much more valuable in real baseball because of his defense. He will be a 4th/ 5^th OF in AL-only leagues at best.

Projection: 450 ABs/6 HRs/50 RBIs/18 SBs/.275/.330/.370

Eric Young, Jr UTIL – Colorado Rockies

ADP: 332  Earliest: 258  Drafted: 1.5%

Opening Day Assignment: Super Utility in COL (NL’s Chone Figgins)

Analysis: Son of EY – Eric Young; EY; EY2 or EYJr will enter 2010 as the UTIL guy for the Rockies. He doesn’t have a starting position home right now with Dexter Fowler in CF and Clint Barmes at 2B, but if either struggle – he will get some playing time. Young has been compared to Figgins because of his speed and versatility. I don’t know if Young will be able to hit .300 at the big league level, but if given 400-500 at-bats the SB’s will be 50-plus. I don’t see him getting enough ABs this year to warrant a draft selection.

Projection: 200 ABs/3 HRs/20 RBIs/20 SBs/.275/.325/.390

Michael Brantley OF – Cleveland Indians

ADP: N/R

Opening Day Assignment: Starting LF in CLE

Analysis: With the success of guys like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and Rajai Davis last year; owners are going to want a look at Brantley, who fits the same mold. Tons of speed, gets on base, but doesn’t do much else. The good thing about Brantley is that the starting LF job is his and he will get ABs. He will be a great cheap steals guy for you and is worth a flyer around the 20 th pick in AL-Only leagues.

Projection: 5 HRs/40 RBIs/30 SBs/.275/.350/.375'

Ian Desmond SS – Washington Nationals

ADP: 212 (NL Only)  Earliest: 198  Drafted: 15.0%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting SS in WAS

Analysis: Desmond inherits the SS spot left open when Cristian Guzman was moved to 2B. The wild card will be if the Nats end up signing Orlando Hudson, which would crush Desmond’s value for 2010. In 82 at-bats last year, he put up four HRs and 12 RBIs, while hitting .280. Sample size is small, but it was enough to make him the front-runner for the starting SS job. Desmond has shown pretty good pop in the minor leagues, thus, it isn’t of the question for him to be a 10-15 HR guy.

He comes in around the 12th best SS in the NL, so you are looking at a MI play only. His draft position is a tad low, and I think if you reach on him a round or two early it will be a good move.

Projection: 400 ABs/.270/.330/.435/10 HRs/55 RBIs/15 SBs

David Freese 3B – St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 332  Earliest: 272  Drafted: 2.1%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 3B in STL

Analysis: Freese was supposed to be the starting 3B last year for the Cardinals when Troy Glaus went down with an injury. It never happened and everyone that grabbed him in NL-only leagues (myself included) dropped him just as fast too.

Freese is an older prospect at 26 years of age, but there are no roadblocks – so it’s sink or swim for him in 2010. When looking at Freese there are some things to like and some red flags.

The Good – He’s hit .300 at every level in the minors with strong OPS numbers.

The Bad – His BABIP is ridiculous; mostly over .350; the K% over 20%

“The Bad” tells me is he’s more likely to be a .265 hitter at the big league level; not .300. If everything goes right, Freese could be a Top 15 3B in 2010, which would put in that 250 ADP range. Freese is a good candidate for NL-only leagues at 3B or CI spots.

Projection: 500 ABs/18 HRs/70 RBIs/.265/.335/.440

Was the Roy Halladay Trade Worth it? Scouting Report on Kyle Drabek (SP), Brett Wallace (1B/3B), and Travis D'Arnaud (C)

All of the dust has settled on what ESPN’s Jayson Stark explains, “…isn’t just a trade. It’s a foray into the history books.” MLBFP closely studied this monster trade to figure out how the pieces fit together. Of course, we concentrated on the prospects, only. If you don’t already know that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are top ten starters in any format, maybe you might need a new hobby.

We begin by taking a look at the Blue Jays’ haul for Roy Halladay, which includes Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace (obtained by flipping Michael Taylor to the A’s. Stay tuned for our interview with him, later this weekend), and Travis D’Arnaud.

Loyal MLBFP readers already know that Drabek holds a spot on our list of Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2010 & Beyond, coming in at #17. Once you’ve read our scouting report on Kyle, you’ll see that we that this kid might someday follow in his daddy’s footsteps and win a Cy Young Award. On December 17, John Manual and J.J. Cooper discussed the big trade on the Baseball America Podcast. They now list Kyle Drabek as Toronto’s number one prospect. Who’s number two? Brett Wallace, of course.

One of the only knocks on Wallace has been his defense at third base. That may no longer be an issue. Recently, Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos chatted with fans on MLB.com about the Halladay trade and prospects for the Blue Jays in the future. During the chat, Anthropoulos said the following:

We think Wallace is capable of playing third. But, we see him being an above average defensive first baseman. Our hope is to have a strong as a defensive club as we can and putting players in a position where they have a chance to impact the club in the best way defensively.

Sure sounds as if Brett’s days manning the hot corner are over. In my opinion, this is a positive move because now he can concentrate on what he does best – crushing the baseball! Back in July, he was traded to the A’s in the deal that sent Matt Holliday to the Cardinals. Regardless of where he played in 2009, albeit in the Texas League (AA) or the Pacific Coast League (AAA) – for two different organizations, no less – Wallace proved he’s ready for the bigs. For the year, he hit .293 with 20 homers and a .822 OPS. Sure, with the move to first base, we’ll want to see him get that .455 slugging percentage a bit higher. Even so, as Bill Root pointed out after Brett’s trade to Oakland, “The Arizona State alum has hit at every level in the minors.” If that’s not enough of a ringing endorsement, Root later proclaims, “he has the skills to win a batting title if he keeps progressing.” Upon arriving to the A's organization, Wallace had his best stretch of the season, batting .302 with 9 homers in 182 at-bats.

So when might we see these two top-flight prospects playing in the majors? According to Anthropoulos, (from the aforementioned chat session):

I'd say both Drabek and Wallace are very close. But we don't want to put expectations with respect to a time line on them arriving in Toronto. Since Wallace got to Triple-A last year, you could argue that he is the closest but with Drabek having good success in Double-A last year, he could certainly come fast as well just like Jesse Litsch did.

Barring injuries, MLBFP is willing to bet the house that these guys will be regulars at the Rogers Centre by the end of 2010. So that leaves us with just one player to cover – catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud.

Last season, D’Arnaud played for Single-A Lakewood in the Sally League. When we think Sally, we automatically turn to our friend, Mike Newman and his “Scouting the Sally” blog. Newman grades Travis really high, as this snippet proves:

At his peak, I would not be surprised to see D'Arnaud surface as a .270-.285 hitter with 18-25 home run power while contributing above average defense and plus game management skills. Among the current catching crop, this would place him in the same company as Geovany Soto, and Miguel Montero who profile as above average regulars, if not occasional all-star caliber players. Select company indeed, but D'Arnaud has the tools and projection to reach those heights. Prospect analysts who regard him as little more than a throw in are seriously undercutting his ability. The Blue Jays gained an excellent prospect.

Those might seem like some lofty expectations, but Newman has been scouting the Sally League for some time now. We at MLBFP highly respect his opinions.

I understand that losing Doc Halladay is a tough pill to sawllow for you Jays fans. But hey, you were going to lose him at the end of the season for nothing! Your new GM came through big in flipping Doc for Drabek and Wallace. Both are blue chippers, just a hair shy of performing in the Major Leagues, potentially at a very high level. Hang in there, Toronto! Anthropoulos might be the real deal.

#13 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Aroldis Chapman (SP, Free Agent, Cuba) - Scouting Report

It’s not easy for me to place Aroldis Chapman in MLBFP’s Top 25. This Cuban defect could easily become a prospect reject.

That said, even though Chapman is as raw as a diaper-rashed baby’s bottom and has yet to sign with a major league squad, he deserves a spot on his list for one reason – his mouth-watering upside. We are talking about a 21-year-old (yeah, we all want to examine the birth certificate) with a 6-4, 179-pound projectable frame and the ability to hit triple digits on the radar gun. Shoot, even the biggest Chapman-haters can’t deny that his age, body-type, and arm trigger a reaction from the salivary glands.

Chapman is primarily a three-pitch-pony. He’s armed with a mid-90s fastball, late-moving slider and a developing curveball. The lanky southpaw throws a splitter and a variety of changeups as well, but those pitches are works-in-progress. Chapman’s already has the fastball velocity and nastilicious slider to have some big league success. After watching some tape on this dude, I’m convinced the slider could become his signature in the bigs rather than his heater. The pitch is extremely deceptive because it’s on an almost-identical plane as the fastball until it sends left-handed hitters fishing and back-doors right-handed batters.

Why is Chapman’s downside as dangerous as his upside? Well, the Cuban sensation still hasn’t mastered his control or command. Chapman has been known to go on walk-fests and tends to miss his spots even when he’s around the plate. For example, Chapman has had the following BB/9 rates in Cuba over the past four years: 9.0, 5.5, 4.5 and 4.7. These rates will be even higher in the majors given the transition from Cuban baseball to MLB. Trust me, major league hitters will patiently force him to find the plate, and will hammer him if he consistently makes mistakes in the zone. Chapman needs time to become a pitcher rather than a thrower; his velocity alone won’t make him a fantasy force.

There have also been questions about Chapman’s maturity and mental makeup. Can he handle the pressure of the mammoth contract once he signs? Will he melt on the mound when he experiences adversity? Will he work hard enough to become a stud pitcher? These are all still open questions. Chapman needs to plant himself on a team with a top-notch pitching coach, who can perfect his mechanics/off-speed pitches, and supporting veterans who can look over his shoulder.

Chapman is reportedly looking for a $40-60 million deal. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, and Toronto Blue Jays have all expressed interest in the international free agent. Chapman recently fired his agent, Edwin Mejia, who was deep in negotiations with many teams. Chapman has replaced Mejia with the Hendricks brothers to finish off a deal. This is a hint he may be headed to the Bronx because of the Hendricks brothers’ deep-rooted relationship with the Yanks. Our man, Scoops Sheridan, predicted back in July that Chapman would end up in pinstripes. We will soon find out if he was on the mark.

It’s obvious I have major reservations about Chapman. In fact, there’s a real possibility he only ends up slightly better than fellow Cuban, Jose Contreras, if he remains a starting pitcher. Yikes. Nevertheless, you can’t pass on him in limited-pool keeper league drafts because of his projectable body, power repertoire, and enormous ceiling. Further, even if Chapman is moved to the back of the bullpen because he can’t develop a solid third pitch, he will still provide great value in most formats as dominant closer.

Chapman will have initial struggles. He is more of a project prospect than a blue-chipper. You need to have long-term patience and a pro-risk mentality to acquire him. Don’t overpay for Chapman in trades because of the hovering red flags, but scoop him up in keeper league drafts if he’s there for the taking.

Check out the video on Chapman below. Future ace? The Yankees’ dominant closer in 2015? Overrated and overhyped No. 4 starter? Let’s hear your thoughts.

#17 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Kyle Drabek (SP, Toronto Blue Jays) - Scouting Report

Remember Kyle Drabek? He’s the kid Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was  reluctant to include in any deal for Roy Halladay. Says something, huh?

In fact, there are whispers that the Blue Jays demanded that Drabek be included in any deal, and that it was a deal-breaker when the Phils refused. In the end, Amaro moved a bevy of secondary prospects for Cliff Lee and kept the young gun in the organization. Wise move.

As the son of a Cy Young award winner (Doug Drabek), Drabek surely has the pedigree. Obviously, just like with thoroughbreds, as you degenerate gamblers know, sometimes pedigree doesn’t mean a damn thing. For example, please tell me one of you out there added Pete Rose Jr. to a keeper league squad in hopes of big things. C’mon, I need an uncontrollable laugh.

The difference with Drabek is he has the electric stuff to go along with his family roots. Check out the 21-year-old righty’s stat line in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (across High-A and Double-A): 12 wins, 3 losses, 3.19 ERA, 150 Ks, 50 BBs, and a .239 BAA. Drabek kept his K/9 over 7.00 and his BB/9 under 3.00 at both levels. This dude has the goods even though he’s still on the relative down-low in the prospect world.

Drabek has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s, a nasty curve with horizontal-like action, and a developing change. Now, some have suggested Drabek’s upside is limited because he only has two-plus pitches (fastball and curve). Don’t believe the nega-hype. Drabek didn’t start using a change until he reached the professional ranks. Further, his signature pitches are so filthy that he will turn out just fine even if his change tops out as average.

Drabek struggled after the all-star break with a 4.53 ERA and .262 BAA. Here’s another case of physical and mental fatigue setting in with a top prospect. Drabek had never pitched more than 54 innings in a season. Should we be surprised he wore down as he approached 150 IP? Of course not. Because of his workload and injury history, the Phils shut him down in late August.

The Phils were only able to snag Drabek with the 18th overall pick in the 2006 draft because he was believed to have “character issues.” Specifically, he was viewed an immature hothead with an attitude problem. Sounds like most 18-year-olds I know. Well, the ole’ Texan has matured and developed a strong worth ethic. Drabek has the top-notch stuff, command, and new perspective to be an elite fantasy starter.

Could Drabek Jr. win a Cy Young of his own? Let’s put it this way, it’s not a ridiculous question.