MLB Fantasy Prospects

Aging Out: Overvalued Fantasy Players, Age 35 Or Older

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

Last week, I analyzed some of fantasy baseball’s more desirable veterans headed into the season. This time around, I’ve done the opposite and found a bevy of players, 35 and older, who I will be hesitant to grab draft day. Remember, players must be 35 or older by opening day to qualify, and are not ranked, but simply listed in alphabetical order.

What differs from my last post, however, is that players had to be drafted in at least 20% of mixed league drafts to qualify for this list, so as to avoid the obvious. As such, players like Kevin Millwood, Edgar Renteria, and Scott Rolen were all up for consideration, but are ineligible, as most of you already know to look elsewhere for value.

Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Johnny Damon (OF, Detroit Tigers) Age: 36

Back when Damon was a free agent, I analyzed his prospective value as a member of the Tigers, but I’ll summarize here: stay away. Damon had one of the best years of his fine career last season, taking advantage of the new Yankee Stadium by posting his highest career FB% and tying his career high with 24 homers. Moving to spacious Comerica Park will sap Damon of much of his power, however, and given that he hit 17 of his 24 homers at home last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Damon’s homerun total fell by 50% in 2010. Once upon a time, that might not have been enough to seriously damage Damon’s fantasy value, but aside from his power numbers, Damon saw regression across the board last year. His average fell 21 points from 2009 and his twelve stolen bases marked his lowest ever in a full season. Damon still has an incredible eye, and he will score runs batting leadoff, but I see him posting a line of .290-12-70 with 15 SB and 90 R. Those numbesr make his current ADP of 119 too high. Damon is still a viable option as a fifth fantasy outfielder, but taking him before round 15 is a move you’ll regret when you can still grab high-upside players like Julio Borbon and Colby Rasmus.

Raul Ibanez (OF, Philadelphia Phillies) Age: 37

Ibanez had a career year in 2009, going to his first All-Star game and making Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro Jr. look like a genius for signing him over 2008 incumbent left fielder Pat Burrell. I do believe that Ibanez can be counted on as a solid fantasy contributor this year, as his escape from Safeco field allowed him to set career-highs in homers, slugging percentage, and OPS, all while missing nearly 30 games with an injury. Nevertheless, I do not believe that a 37-year-old outfielder can completely reinvent himself and be counted on to duplicate a HR/FB ratio nearly a third higher than his career average. Ibanez has always been a good hitter and bats in the best line-up in the National League. I’d have no problem going into the season with him as my third outfielder. That said, Ibanez is a great candidate for regression and his current ADP of 93 is a steep price to pay; especially with high-upside outfielders like Carlos Quentin and Jay Bruce still on the board. I project Ibanez to have another good season and hit .280-25-90 with 90 RBI. Those numbers would make him a Top 125 fantasy player, but a reach in a draft’s first ten rounds.

Chipper Jones (3B, Atlanta Braves) Age: 37

Jones’ current ADP is 131 and if you’re intent on taking a gamble on him; the 14^th round is a fair time to do so. Aside from beleaguered Mets’ Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, Jones is the fantasy cog most likely to miss serious time with injuries. Jones has received 500 ABs only once in the past six seasons and only once in that span did he appear in over 140 games. If healthy and given 600 ABs, I have no doubts that Jones’ Hall of Fame-type skills would allow him to post a line of .320-25-115 with 90 R. However, given Jones’ age and injury history, I can’t project him for more than 450 ABs, which would still be higher than his average of 442 over the past five seasons. Missing a fourth of a season hurts Jones less than many other players, but would still drop his totals to .310-19-85, making him a good but unspectacular option at third base. If you do insist on grabbing Jones, you’re going to have to handcuff him with a Mark Teahen or Casey Blake-type third baseman that is sure to see playing time during one of Jones’ inevitable DL stints.

Derek Lowe (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 36

Normally, I would project a pitcher with a .330 BABIP and Lowe’s track record of success to have a bounce-back season and once again become a Top 50 fantasy starter. Lowe’s secondary numbers tell a very different tale, leading me to project only a modest bounce-back from his 4.67 ERA from last season. Further, I doubt he ever returns to putting up the sub-4.00 ERAs he posted during his time as a Dodger. Lowe’s Ground Ball percentage of 56.3% was his lowest ever as a starter and is a dangerously low number for a sinkerball specialist. Lowe also lost a full MPH on both his fastball and slider while conversely gaining a MPH on his changeup, which is a sign that his arm may be wearing down after throwing 1,000+ innings over the past five seasons. Because he’s a veteran on a good team, Lowe could go 15-8 with a 4.25 ERA, a 1.3 WHIP, and 120 Ks. Those numbers make Lowe nothing more than a fantasy spot starter, however, making his ADP of 303 appropriate for his projected value. Good thing the Braves gave him that four-year contract! Ouch.

Bengie Molina (C, San Francisco Giants) Age: 35

Molina hasn’t done anything wrong to garner a spot on this list; rather, quite the opposite. Molina has played so well for the Giants the past few seasons that they decided to bring him back for 2010, blocking uber-prospect, Buster Posey. Molina has been a quietly productive fantasy catcher over the past few years, averaging 18 HR and 85 RBI during his stint with San Francisco. If I were certain Molina was going to play a full season, projecting his numbers would be easy, as he is what he is: a consistent player who doesn’t strike out much, doesn’t walk much, and will always post a SLG around .440. In his write-up of Posey, MLBFP’s Bill Root sharply noted that the young catcher is a good bet to see some serious playing time in the second half of the season, and that playing time will come at the expense of Molina. The combination of Molina’s increasing age and the threat of lost playing time to Posey force me to project Molina for only 400 ABs this season, giving him a line of .275-15-70. Sadly, that would still make him a Top 15 fantasy catcher, but makes his current ADP of 166 a bit hard to swallow. Molina is still worth drafting and could retain his value if traded, but his owners may be searching for a new starting catcher come July.

Andy Pettitte (SP, New York Yankees) Age: 37

At first glance, Pettitte may seem like a solid pick to fill out a fantasy rotation. He has a track record of success and pitches behind the best offense in baseball, likely winning 15+ games. That may be where Pettitte’s usefulness to fantasy owners ends, though. He has turned into a one-category contributor at this stage in his career. Pettitte has averaged just 149 Ks over the past three seasons and hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA or sub 1.35 WHIP since 2005. Also startling is Pettitte’s BB/9 ratio, which jumped to 3.51, his highest rate since 2000. Regardless, fantasy owners must still find those potential wins appealing, as Pettitte is sporting an ADP of 209. The 21st round is too early to draft the veteran southpaw, as there should be several better pitching options remaining on the board. Instead of Pettitte, owners are better served by going with bounce-back candidates such as Erik Bedard and Aaron Harang, high-upsiders like Jeff Niemann and Johnny Cueto, or the undervalued Mark Buehrle. Those who do stick with Pettitte should expect 16 wins with a 4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 150 Ks, which makes him an excellent spot starter, but not reliable on for regular starts in 2010.

Miguel Tejada (SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 35

Tejada is living off of his reputation, as he’s being taken several rounds ahead of high-upside shortstops Elvis Andrus, Yunel Escobar, and Asdrubal Cabrera. Two factors allow Tejada to remain fantasy relevant: he’s extremely durable and he will retain his middle infield eligibility despite his move to third base in 2010. Tejada’s days of hitting 20 homeruns are permanently in the rear view mirror as his HR/FB rate has seen a slow but steady regression over the past four seasons. Because he will hit in a sneaky-good Orioles lineup this season, Tejada’s RBI and R totals should hold up well, actually bolstering his fantasy value a bit. Still, I see Tejada hitting .285-13-78 with 80 R and 3 SB, making him a passable middle infielder, but unacceptable as a starting shortstop or corner infielder. Tejada’s ADP is currently 133, and while that’s not outrageous, it’s still about three rounds before I’d consider snagging him. The shortstop position is ripe with sleepers…passing on Tejada to take a Everth Cabrera, Alcides Escobar, or J.J. Hardy eight to ten rounds later is a more savvy move.

Top 25 Fantasy Keepers Under 25-Years-Old: Part II

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

I know you’ve been waiting patiently for the rest of this list, so let’s get right to it:

13) Billy Butler (1B, Kansas City Royals) Age: 23, ADP: 81

• (14th among 1B)

It’s hard to believe that Butler, already entering his third season, is still just 23-years-old. This may be bad news for fantasy owners, however, as it means he might still be a year or two away from fulfilling his power potential. I wanted to project Butler for 25+ homeruns, but similarly to Adam Jones, his low ISO and high GB% are knocking him down slightly in my rankings. I still like Butler to hit .315-20-90, but that makes him more of a corner infielder than a solid, starting fantasy first baseman. The ninth round is a little high for Butler, and it’s worth noting that you can wait seven or eight rounds and get around 75% of his production from Todd Helton or Nick Johnson.

14) Jon Danks (SP, Chicago White Sox) Age: 24, ADP: 162

• (38th among SP)

Danks barely qualifies for this list, as he turns 25 a week into the season, and is still slowly evolving into a stellar fantasy option. Danks’ low BABIP is concerning, but it’s consistent, which relieves some of my fears. He’s now turned in back-to-back, solid seasons, and I like him to build on that success in 2010. I project Danks will go 14-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 160 K’s, making him a solid fourth fantasy starter and an excellent value for the seventeenth round.

15) Jair Jurrjens (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 24, ADP: 144

• (32nd among SP)

Jurrjens helped me on several teams last season, and I think he has a bright future. Nevertheless, I believe he’s in for a decent regression this season. Jurrjens was benefited last year by a very low BABIP of .273, and that, along with his alarmingly low K/BB rate of 2.03, warn me that his WHIP is about to skyrocket. He’ll still be worth owning as a fourth fantasy pitcher, and I expect a line of 14-10 with a 3.75 ERA and 140 K’s, but Brian Anderson, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Zambrano are just some of the many pitchers with lower ADP’s who I prefer to Jurrjens this year.

16) Andrew McCutchen (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) Age: 23, ADP: 8

• (26th among OF)

McCutchen is, in my opinion, an overdraft in the ninth round, and should not be taken ahead of players such as Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Torii Hunter or Jay Bruce, all of whom have lower ADPs. I know that speed is at a premium in the fantasy world, and I do think McCutchen will swipe 30 bags this year, but I don’t consider him to be a Top 100 player, yet. I see McCutchen hitting .280-12-65 with 30 SB, which makes him a solid third outfielder, but not someone I’d take over a second starter or comparable middle infielder.

17) Elvis Andrus (SS, Texas Rangers) Age: 22, ADP: 149

• (12th among SS)

Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera (148), and Yunel Escobar (153) are all ranked within 5 spots of each other, which shows that it’s basically a crapshoot between which of the three will produce the most this season. Personally, I believe it will be Andrus, as his 2009 BABIP of .305 is likely to improve. Hitting in a superior offense, he’ll probably score the most runs of the three. I like Andrus to hit .280-5-55 with 40 SB with 90 R, making him slightly undervalued as a current fifteenth round pick.

18) Homer Bailey (SP, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 23, ADP: 278

• (77th among SP)

Bailey is another semi-sleeper who I’m very high on, and have been grabbing in my leagues on a regular basis. After struggling for the better part of three seasons, everything finally clicked for Bailey last season, as he finished on a tear. Watch for him to continue that success and be a viable option as a fifth fantasy starter this season, going 14-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 170 Ks. Once Bailey lowers his 4.13 BB/9 ratio, I believe he will be a Top 30 fantasy pitcher. For now, however, grab Bailey late in drafts, where he’ll be going after the likes of Kevin Correia, Gil Meche, and Joe Blanton, and get all you can out of him before Dusty Baker inevitably blows out his arm.

19) Carlos Gonzalez (OF, Colorado Rockies) Age: 24, ADP: 122

• (41st among OF)

Gonzalez was one of my favorite sleepers headed into the year, but apparently others have caught on as well, as his ADP now has him as a thirteenth round pick. Gonzalez is a potential 20 HR/20 SB player. If the Rockies wise up and give him 500 ABs this season, I think he can reach those numbers. Overall, I like Car-Go to hit .285-21-75 with 20 stolen bases, making him a very nice fourth/borderline third fantasy outfielder. Gonzalez’s ADP is fine for now, but if he creeps into the tenth or eleventh round, he’s not worth reaching for.

20) Dexter Fowler (OF, Colorado Rockies) Age: 24, ADP: 259

• (63rd among OF)

I was shocked to see Fowler have such a low ADP, as anyone capable of stealing 30 bases is usually gone before round 26. A poor man’s Andrew McCutchen, Fowler could provide 80% of McCutchen’s value, but taken 10 to 15 rounds later. I project Fowler to hit .275-5-50 with 30 SB and 95 R, making him a terrific fifth fantasy outfielder and quite the bargain.

21) Colby Rasmus (OF, St. Louis Cardinals) Age: 23, ADP: 90

• (52nd among OF)

Rasmus represents another rare case where I agree with a player’s ADP. He does strike out too much, and if he doesn’t rectify that, he’ll never reach his full fantasy potential. But while Rasmus struggled due to his lack of patience, his mundane rookie campaign was also due to bad luck, as his BABIP was just .282 and among the worst in the majors. I believe Rasmus can hit .270-18-70 this year with 14 SB, making him a good fifth fantasy outfielder at a reasonable draft slot. He should also score plenty of runs batting ahead of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

22) Alcides Escobar (SS, Milwaukee Brewers) Age 23, ADP: 241

• (19th among SS)

Escobar is unproven, but I think he’s quite a steal for fantasy owners this season, as I see him as a Top 12 fantasy shortstop. I’m projecting Escobar’s line to be .285-4-50 with 40 SB and 80 R, making him another bargain for the 25th round. Better known shortstops such as Marco Scutaro and Erick Aybar are being drafted first, but neither can provide the kind of standings-altering speed that Escobar can. He might have to take some lumps as a rookie, but I would feel very comfortable going into the season with Escobar as my starting middle infielder.

23) Johnny Cueto (SP, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 24, ADP: 219

• (57th among SP)

A strikeout machine in the minors, Cueto saw his K/9 drop from 8.17 to 6.93 last season, diminishing his fantasy value. Cueto still has electric stuff, however, and while his punch-outs have been fading, his walks have followed suit. Cueto may never develop into the No. 2 fantasy starter I thought he’d be, but I still like him as a No. 5, capable of going 14-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 180 Ks. Cueto is being taken after no-upside veterans like Randy Wolf and Andy Pettitte. While he’s far from a sure thing, I would take Cueto’s potential over the safety of a washed-up veteran any day.

24) Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/SS, Cleveland Indians) Age: 24, ADP: 148

• (11th among SS, 12th among 2B)

I’ve never been a Cabrera believer. His ADP is ridiculous, but I have to put him on this list due to position scarcity. Cabrera has regression written all over him, as his BABIP in 2009 was a lucky .360, while his stolen base total was more than twice as high as it was in 2008. I have Cabrera falling to .280-4-50 with 11 SB this year, and he won’t score many runs in Cleveland’s anemic offense. I don’t see Cabrera being much of a fantasy contributor this year, so I will be looking to avoid him on draft day.

25) Brian Matusz (SP, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 23, ADP: 302

• (ND among SP)

This pick was almost Detroit righty, Rick Porcello, but I opted with Matusz due to Porcello’s low BABIP and paltry 4.69 K/9 ratio. The fact that Matusz is in the AL East scares me, but all of his other numbers point to immediate big league success. Matusz is my early favorite for AL ROY, and I think he will be a nice No.5 fantasy starter this season, going 13-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 170 Ks. Matusz is currently being drafted in the 31st round, so you really have nothing to lose by taking a flier on him.

Just Missed The Cut

26) Rick Porcello (SP, Detroit Tigers) Age: 21, ADP: 205

• (52nd among SP)

27) Julio Borbon (OF, Texas Rangers) Age: 24, ADP: 169

• (45th among OF)

28) Travis Snider (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) Age: 22, ADP: 223

• (56th among OF)

29) David Price (SP, Tampa Bay Rays) Age: 24, ADP: 143

• (43rd among SP)

30) Chris Coghlan (OF, Florida Marlins) Age: 24, ADP: 201

• (52nd among OF)

Follow this link to see 1 thru 12...

Top 25 Fantasy Keepers Under 25-Years-Old: Part I

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

What do Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum, and Troy Tulowitzki have in common? None of them qualify for this list of the Top 25 best fantasy cogs under the age of 25.

Using the cut-off date of Opening Day 2010 as my guide, I poured over every roster and checked the age of every fantasy relevant player on every MLB team. After excluding everyone with a DOB that ends in 84 or later, here are my results. Fresh from my cheat-sheet to your computer screen, I present to you a keeper-league owner’s best friend: The Top 25 Under 25.

As you will see, this feature is split into two parts. No worries, I won’t tease you – the Top 12 is in the first installment.

All Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

1) Evan Longoria (3B, Tampa Bay Rays) Age: 24, ADP: 9

• (2nd among 3B)

An absolute fantasy monster, Longoria has everything a fantasy owner could want from a first round pick, as he is balanced, reliable, and plays a shallow position. Longoria is one of the best and most exciting players in the game, and I have no problem with his ADP. That said, in non-keeper leagues, I’m not sure if I agree with him going behind the suddenly undervalued David Wright. Grab Longoria in the bottom half of the first round, and except a monster season of .285/35 HRs/120 RBIs/8 SBs.

2) Justin Upton (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks) Age: 22, ADP: 24

• (6th among OF)

Baseball America’s second highest rated prospect in 2006, fantasy owners have long had their eyes on Upton, who’s ADP has been steadily rising over the past two years. I’m as much of a believer in his potential as anyone, and I think he makes a great third-round pick, making his current ADP of 24 very fair. I like Upton to hit .290-30-90 with 18 SB this year, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 20 points better either. Don’t take him over Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, or Carl Crawford, but you can make the argument that Upton is the fourth best fantasy outfielder heading into the season (although I personally like Grady Sizemore more).

3) Felix Hernandez (SP, Seattle Mariners) Age: 23, ADP: 32

• (5th among SP)

While I personally refrain from drafting pitchers within the first four rounds of a draft, King Felix’s talent is undeniable. Thus, his ADP of 32 is fair. He’s currently ranked behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, and Zack Greinke, and while I would personally rank Hernandez above Greinke, they’re too close for me to have a serious problem with it. Hernandez has only gotten better each year since being called up to the majors, and I expect that trend to continue in 2010. Watch Hernandez go 18-6 with a 2.25 ERA and 220 Ks this season, and enjoy as he anchors your fantasy staff.

4) Pablo Sandoval (3B, San Francisco Giants) Age: 23, ADP: 38

• (6th among 3B)

I’ve never been a huge Sandoval believer, but even his biggest fans should accept that selecting the “Kung Fu Panda” in the fourth round is a reach. Sandoval is a good fantasy option at third base, and I like him to hit around .315-22-90, but those numbers do not warrant him being selected before players like Justin Morneau or Ichiro Suzuki. Sandoval would be a fine choice in the early sixth/late fifth round, but if he’s my fourth-best fantasy player, I’m not going to feel too comfortable.

5) Yovani Gallardo (SP, Milwaukee Brewers) Age: 24, ADP: 88

• (17th among SP)

Gallardo is one of my favorite fantasy pitchers headed into this year, and I’ve waited on pitching and made him my fantasy ace in several of my drafts thus far. Gallardo represents great value with his current ADP, as fantasy owners who select him will be getting a stud four-category producer in the ninth round. The Brewers’ defense is less than phenomenal, but I still expect Gallardo to take a step forward and go 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 225 Ks this year. Adam Wainwright and Javier Vazquez have higher ADPs, but ride Gallardo instead in 2010.

6) Tommy Hanson (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 23, ADP: 80

• (16th among SP)

Gallardo and Hanson are basically interchangeable in my rankings, as I believe Hanson will have a phenomenal year as well. All of Hanson’s advanced stats (such as an insanely low, Sabathia-esque 0.7 HR/9) suggest that he will continue to have success in 2010. While I’m not quite ready to give him the title of fantasy ace yet, I wouldn’t be surprised if he earns that distinction this year. I project that Hanson will go 16-4 with a 3.25 ERA, 190 Ks, and a very low WHIP. He’s a solid pick from the seventh round on and a superb No. 2 fantasy starter.

7) Jay Bruce (OF, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 23, ADP: 116

• (38th among OF)

It pains me to write about the type of season I believe Bruce is going to have, because as an active participator in fantasy leagues, I don’t want to see him lose his sleeper status. I believe Bruce will break out in a huge way this year and be a Top 50 fantasy player, hitting .280-35-100. Many of you will be skeptical of that projection, but anyone with Bruce’s talent, a BABIP of .221, and a 16.8 HR/FB percentage is destined for greatness. Even if those advanced stats don’t convince you, please at least help change the fact that Bruce is being selected behind players such as Brad Hawpe, Alex Rios, and Jason Kubel. Grab Bruce in the eight or ninth round, watch him pile up the power numbers, and don’t forget to thank me in October.

8) Matt Wieters (C, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 23, ADP: 91

• (4th among C)

Wieters is a rare example of a player whose ADP and positional ranking make perfect sense to me. After a solid but unspectacular 2009 season, I project Wieters to hit .285-20-85 this year, and do believe that he will be the fourth most valuable fantasy catcher, behind only Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Victor Martinez. The tenth round is a great spot to grab Wieters, and I wouldn’t call grabbing him in the ninth to be much of a reach either.

9) Brett Anderson (SP, Oakland Athletics) Age: 22, ADP: 155

• (35th among SP)

Anderson is another one of my favorite sleepers headed into the 2010 season, as I see the lefty becoming a Top 25 fantasy starter. Anderson needs to do a better job of working out of jams (only a 67-percent LOB), but has the arsenal needed to shut down hitters in the spacious Coliseum. I believe Anderson will have a breakout year and go 15-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 170 Ks, outperforming many pitchers drafted ahead of him, such as Scott Baker, Max Scherzer, and Wandy Rodriguez. Anderson’s current ADP has him going in the 16th round, and unless I was already loaded in the starting pitching department, I would grab him there in a heartbeat.

10) Gordon Beckham (2B/3B, Chicago White Sox) Age: 23, ADP: 87

• (10th among 2B, 9th among 3B)

I love Beckham’s position versatility this year, and given the shady track records of Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist, he could end up being a Top Seven second baseman for fantasy owners. I project an all-around solid .285-20-70 line with 10 SBs for Beckham this year, and believe he’ll be even better in the future. The eighth round is a little too early to take him for my tastes, and I’d still rather have Dan Uggla, but given his 2B eligibility, Beckham is a borderline Top 100 fantasy player in my book.

11) Adam Jones (OF, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 24, ADP: 89

• (30th among OF)

I feel the same way about Jones that I do about Sandoval, in that I do like him, but apparently not as much as some, as his current ADP has him as a ninth round selection. Fantasy owners can dream on Jones, as he has 30 HR/20 SB potential, but his low ISO and 28.1% FB rate lead me to believe he may never quite hit the 30 HR threshold. I project Jones to hit .275-20-80 with 18 SBs, which makes him a fine 11th-13th round pick, but until Jones proves he can start generating some more lift with his swing, he’s not a Top 100 player to me.

12) Clayton Kershaw (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) Age: 22, ADP: 94

• (19th among SP)

People will likely be surprised to see Kershaw this far down on the list, and based on upside alone, he’s the best pitcher in this ranking not named Felix. But people forget that even Hernandez needed a few years in the majors before he fully dominated, and I see Kershaw following the same path. I believe Kershaw will be very useful as a fourth fantasy starter this year, but he’s being well over-drafted because of his name value, and is not someone I would select with one of my first ten picks. Kershaw will likely be a Top 10 pitcher some day, but for now, I expect him to go 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 180 Ks, making him a good but overvalued fantasy asset.

Follow this link to see 13 thru 25...

Touch 'Em All: Top Prospect Lists, Last Chances, Spring Training Position Battles, and Jason Heyward Batting Practice Heroics

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Ehire Adrianza, Nick Noonan, Brian Bocock, Madison Bumgarner, Todd Wellemeyer,  Joe Martinez, Kevin Pucetas, Atlanta Braves, Jason Heyward

Welcome to the first spring training edition of Touch ‘Em All, our quick, four-stop tour around the fantasy prospect blogosphere.

Indians Prospect Insider blogger, Tony Lastoria, has a great rundown of 2010 prospect guides, including MLBFP’s Top Prospects by Division Series (more on this in a bit). If you’re a Cleveland Indians fanatic, I strongly urge you to purchase Tony’s book, 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More.

Kevin O’Brien over at Remember ‘51 has been showering MLBFP with praise since we broke onto the scene. To show our appreciation, let me bring your attention to an excellent piece he posted about four young middle infielders that struggled in the San Francisco Giants organization last season: Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Ehire Adrianza, and Nick Noonan. I was particularly interested his take on Crawford, as I picked him up in a NL dynasty league last season:

Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Crawford:
Crawford has always drawn raves for his glove and he still remains a solid defensive player. His RF/G was 4.58 in combined Single-A and Double-A play in 2009, so that should give some Giants fans hope considering Edgar Renteria's RF/G was 3.74 for the Giants in 2009. If anything, Crawford would be a solid upgrade over Renteria or even Juan Uribe (who had a 3.78 RF/G in 2009 at shortstop).

Granted, defense isn't everything. Brian Bocock was a good defender too. However, unlike Bocock, Crawford does have an ability to hit. His combined stats in Single-A and Double-A last year were still decent (.282 average, .742 OPS) and he had a solid campaign in Arizona Fall League this year (as evidenced by a .312 average and .850 OPS). If Crawford can get back to Single-A form somewhat, or hover around those combined-level stats from 2009 in 2010, it isn't impossible to think that he could be competing for the starting shortstop job in 2011 once Edgar Renteria's contract is up.

Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Crawford:
He is 23-years-old, and played three years of college baseball at UCLA. So, he's not exactly young considering where he's at in the minor league system, and he doesn't have a whole lot of time to develop in comparison to guys out of high school (such as Nick Noonan). Therefore, Crawford ceiling may not be very high, and Giants fans could see him reach it in a couple of years considering his college experience.

That being said, despite his three years of college ball, and two years of professional ball, Crawford has serious issues at the plate. At four levels of play (rookie, short-season Single-A, Advanced Single-A, and Double-A), Crawford's BB/K ratios haven't been great. He had 0.00 BB/K ratio in Arizona and Salem Keizer (because he drew no walks, but then again, it was only a five game sample) and a 0.20 BB/K ratio with the Defenders. Even in his solid outing in San Jose, he BB/K ratio wasn't good at 0.31 (a 30.5 percent strikeout rate probably contributed to such a high ratio)

MLB.com added an excellent tool to the fantasy section of their site called Position Decisions. I highly recommend it as it breaks down all the spring training battles to the nth-degree. Let me give you an example. For the Giants No. 5 starter, they have it as: Madison Bumgarner vs. Todd Wellemeyer  vs. Joe Martinez vs. Kevin Pucetas. The winner? Our No. 11 MLB Fantasy Prospect, Madison Bumgarner (pictured right), but with a caveat.

The Giants have proven that they're not afraid to give their younger pitchers opportunities. Bumgarner's only 20. But the ballclub is in win-now mode. The Giants won't hesitate to rely on someone besides Bumgarner if he struggles; likely Wellemeyer.

Finally, in a post that’s aptly titled, Jason Heyward: First Ballot BP Hall of Famer, Base Heads front-man Paul Bourdett takes a lighthearted look at the ridiculous hype coming out of Braves camp. For those of you considering a trip to Lake Buena Visa to check out “J-Hype” firsthand, Paul provides the top ten “much safer locations for your car than the right field parking lot of the Braves spring training facility.” Great stuff, Mr. Bourdett!

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BONUS TOUCH ‘EM ALL!

I’d be remiss if I didn’t give a shout-out to our newest addition, Ben Carsley, for his tremendous work in cranking out his first feature: the 2010 MLB Fantasy Prospects By Division Series. Y’all will be able to get to this piece all season by scrolling down the adjacent column to the right of this post. Superb job, Ben. Superb.

Also, in what is beginning to be a regular occurrence, my main man Billy Root’s article on 2010 Impact Rookies was picked up by SI.com, just recently. That’s right, fantasy prospectors, MLBFP is for real.

Spring Training Prospecting: Jason Heyward, Chris Tillman, and Kyle Blanks

Contributed by Kenny Walter

Spring is in the air for baseball fans across the nation and the boys of summer have reported for duty. Unfortunately, many of you reading this are still shoveling mounds of snow. It’s been a chilling winter, but this year’s batch of hot prospects is on the way to heat things up. As spring training gets underway, we here at MLB Fantasy Prospects will keep a keen eye on any developments in the prospect ranks. Can Stephen Strasburg make the Nationals out of camp? Is Desmond Jennings looking like a contributor for Tampa Bay? We will keep you well-informed.

Let’s take our first, fantasy prospect spin around the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Jason Heyward (OF, Atlanta Braves)

Ok, wasn’t the hype machine supposed to be following a young righty pitcher for the Nationals? What’s his name again (see about four inches above)? The reports coming out of the Braves spring training complex are enough to make you forget about that guy in Washington all together. According to CBS Sports Fantasy News, Bobby Cox thinks the ball sounds different coming off Heyward’s bat. He compared the sound to another player you may have heard of – Hammerin’ Hank!

If that’s not good enough, it appears the Braves have had to make special accommodations for their newest star. Heyward has smashed so many shots out into the parking lot, that to avoid more car damage, they have added extra netting to rein in the 20-year-old’s blasts. It seems experts are betting the Braves start Heyward out in the minors, but I just don’t see it. They did start Tommy Hanson off down on the farm, but Atlanta seems to give their bats a shot at the “Show” when they’re ready. Chipper Jones and Andruw Jones were added to the roster as young talents. Cox will get players he likes into the line-up. I can recall Cox bringing up Kelly Johnson and penciling him right into the number three hole. The Braves have been desperately searching for an impact bat for some time now and it appears they found their man. We will continue to monitor the situation when spring games begin, but these kinds of reports should allow you to bid with confidence.

Chris Tillman (RHP, Baltimore Orioles)

Tillman had been reportedly experiencing some back pain, but was able to throw his batting practice session on Friday. Tillman was a key piece in the Orioles trade with the Mariners for Erik Bedard, but has been passed in the organization ranks by Brian Matusz. He said it was hard for him to dial it back a bit and not go 100-percent. This can be viewed two ways. Scary in that he may further damage to back and noble as it shows how much of a competitor he can be. I’ll take the later. Back injuries are tricky, but they can also be monitored and rehabbed successfully.

Tillman might have a rotation spot all but locked up and many fantasy players are ignoring him, instead focusing in on Matusz. Don’t make that mistake. This kid has a nasty curveball and lots of heat on his fastball. The American League East is always one of the toughest divisions and the injury could stall some progression, but monitor his spring outings. He will surely be overlooked. If he can stay healthy, he is poised to take another step toward being a fantasy contributor.

Kyle Blanks (OF, San Diego Padres)

Blanks has reportedly dropped 15-pounds this off-season – reporting to camp in terrific shape. The Padres have moved him to LF in order to accommodate Adrian Gonzalez. Blanks could return to first base if the Padres trade Gonzalez, which has been rumored. This could give his fantasy owners an advantage if he becomes eligible at both positions. Either way, the Pads are ready to get his bat in the line-up.

Blanks is an enormous, intimidating player and has seen his weight fluctuate up to 300-pounds. If he has indeed lost 15-pounds this off-season, that would put him around a lean mean weight of 260-265. He’s 6-6, and if he keeps his body conditioned, he could be primed for a break-out season. In over 1,400 ABs in the minors, he maintained a .304 average and batted .325 at Double-A. So, along with great power, he may add a respectable average, unlike other mashers such as Adam Dunn. He tackled Triple-A in 2009 and was called-up by June. In just 148 ABs, he managed to smack 10 HRs.

Making consistent contact is going to be Blanks’ biggest problem. Mark Reynolds could have some company in chasing his strikeout record this year. Though, if Blanks can keep his average in the .275-.290 range, most fantasy players won’t mind. Watch this guy when the spring games begin and don’t worry about Petco Park – this kid could hit bombs out of Yellowstone.

2010 MLBFP Divisional Series: Top 10 National League East Fantasy Prospects

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

Balancing long-term potential with immediate impact is the hardest part of ranking fantasy prospects. Is it more important for owners to know about a 19-year-old who could be the next Carlos Beltran in three years, or a 24-year-old shortstop who will likely hit .300 in 2010? Decisions such as these are nearly impossible to make, but are exactly the kinds of questions I will be trying to determine in MLBFP’s Top 10 Fantasy Prospects By Division Series.

The NL East is a future fantasy goldmine, containing the two best prospects in all of baseball: in Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg. This division is as good a choice as any to kick off the Top 10 Fantasy Prospect Series.

The Top 10

1) Jason Heyward (OF, Atlanta Braves)  ETA: 2010

What is there to say about Heyward that hasn’t already been said a thousand times? A five-tool outfielder, the 20-year-old prospect tore the cover off the ball last season, hitting .323-17-63 with 10 stolen bases between stops at Single, Double, and Triple-A. Heyward will be given the chance to win the everyday right-field job out of spring training, and, given that his competition currently comes in the form of Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera, his odds are pretty good. If he gets 500 at-bats this season, Heyward could post numbers along the lines of .285-18-80 with 10 stolen bases. As he progresses in his career, Heyward should resemble a slimmer, in-his-prime Carlos Lee, and consistently hit 30-plus homeruns with a .320 batting average and 10 stolen bases. Those numbers would make him a top five fantasy outfielder and a top 20 player overall.

2) Stephen Strasburg (SP, Washington Nationals)  ETA: 2010

It’s pretty fashionable right now to predict that Strasburg will be a top-five fantasy pitcher by mid-June. Strasburg’s talent is undeniable, and in keeper leagues, I would take him over any minor leaguer, Heyward included. But to predict that any rookie, no matter how good, is going to pitch his first minor league inning in April and be better than Roy Halladay by June, is a bit of a stretch. If the Nationals are smart (and that’s a big if), they will keep Strasburg in the minors until June, delay his arbitration clock, and then let him throw 130-150 innings in the majors this year. Assuming he gets those innings, I could see Strasburg striking out 140 batters with a sub-4.00 ERA and 8-10 wins. That makes Strasburg worth owning in all fantasy leagues, but in non-keeper leagues, I wouldn’t reach for him too early just because he’s a sexy name. His upside is ridiculous, but the innings, the inexperience, and his supporting cast don’t point to absolute stardom just yet. By 2012, however, Strasburg will likely be a top-three fantasy pitcher and a top-25 overall pick.

3) Mike Stanton (OF, Florida Marlins)  ETA: Late 2011

Stanton has ridiculous, outrageous power. Ryan-Howard-meets-Adam-Dunn kind of power. And that makes him an absolute fantasy gem. Exactly five players hit 40 or more homeruns last season, and only six more matched or exceeded 35. Stanton has the capability to reach those numbers on a regular basis, but, unlike Dunn or Mark Reynolds, may be able to do so without killing your team’s batting average. Many scouting reports have bemoaned Stanton’s low contact rates and trouble hitting breaking balls, but he was only 19-years-old last season, and has already reached Double-A. Stanton has plenty of time to work on his deficiencies, and if he can hit .280 with a .350 OBP, he could legitimately become a top-15 fantasy player. Even is he never does completely refine his approach, .250 hitters with 40 home run potential certainly still have their place in the fantasy world.

4) Logan Morrison (1B, Florida Marlins)  ETA: Late 2010

Ever fantasy owner wants their first baseman to be one of the lynchpins of their offense, and that is exactly what Morrison has the potential to be in the future. A good hitter, who has improved his OBP steadily over the past three seasons, Morrison has been slowed down only by a wrist injury he suffered last season, which hampered his ability to hit for power. Many experts have brushed this injury aside, and I will gladly defer to their superior medical knowledge, but I also know that wrist injuries are to hitters what elbow injuries are to pitchers, and that makes me leery. If he does fully recover, Morrison can become a Lance Berkman-type .300-30-100 player, which would make him a top-25 fantasy contributor overall. I’m still cautiously optimistic about Morrison’s future, but want to see how quickly his power returns before I completely regain faith.

5) Dominic Brown (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)  ETA: 2011

A five-tool player, who Keith Law affectionately refers to as a “freak,” Brown could become a better player than Morrison down the load, but is ranked below him because he is unlikely to contribute at all in 2010. That the Phillies were ok with giving up Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor, but refused to part with Brown, should tell you all you need to know about his skill set. A potential fantasy stud, the highest ceiling for Brown is what B.J. Upton was supposed to be; a .290 hitter with 25-plus homerun power and the ability to steal 20-30 stolen bases annually. More conservative predictions would have Brown posting a .280-20-80 line with 20 stolen bases, which is what he’s more likely to produce when he first joins the big leagues. While Philadelphia’s outfield is currently stacked, Jayson Werth is a free agent after the year, and the Phillies would be wise to let him walk and allow Brown to compete for the job. In 2011, Brown will be an excellent late round pick, but he’s not worth drafting in 2010.

6) Derek Norris (C, Washington Nationals)  ETA: Late 2012

Norris is unlikely to make an impact in fantasy leagues for quite a while, but he’s ranked so highly because he has the opportunity to be an exceptionally rare fantasy asset: an offensively valuable catcher. Norris built on his breakout 2008 campaign last year, and put up a .286-23-84 line in Single-A, all at the age of 19. For comparison, Brian McCann’s stat line last year read .281-21-94, and he was among the top five most valuable fantasy backstops. Buster Posey and Carlos Santana aside (and assuming Jesus Montero moves from behind the plate), Norris is the best fantasy catching prospect in baseball right now. Hopefully the Nationals don’t rush him, and give Norris an entire season at Double-A. If he produces like he did in 2009, Norris will likely be a top-15 fantasy prospect next season. A relatively unknown prospect headed into last year, there is an off-chance Norris may still be available in some dynasty leagues. If he is, he should be picked up immediately.

7) Jenrry Mejia (SP, New York Mets)  ETA: 2011

Mejia skyrocketed up nearly everyone’s prospect rankings in 2009, as he transformed from an intriguing but unproven 18-year-old into an electric 19-year-old. Mejia dominated Single-A, posting an ERA of 1.97 with a 7.89 K/9 ratio. Mejia did face some adversity once promoted to Double-A, but still posted a sub-4.50 ERA while improving his K/9 ratio to 9.54. Mejia is a ways away from having significant fantasy value, and his control (3.71 BB/9) is a little concerning, but he has the upside of a frontline fantasy starter. An optimistic projection would have Mejia posting a 3.50 ERA with 190 strikeouts and 12-16 wins sometime in the not-too-distant future. Hopefully, the Mets will allow him to take his time, and won’t rush him in an attempt to aid their pitching-starved major league roster. He will likely be well worth the wait, and is a good pickup in all dynasty leagues.

8) Wilmer Flores (SS/3B, New York Mets)  ETA: 2013

Flores’ 2009 stats are pretty underwhelming: .265-3-35 in nearly 500 at-bats in Single-A. What makes Flores so special, however, is that he put up those numbers at the age of 17. There’s is no denying Flores has the raw skills to carry a special bat. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, his lack of mobility and speed means that his odds of staying at shortstop are slim to none. Regardless of his position, Flores has a chance to be a big-time fantasy contributor, which explains why, although he’s probably three full seasons away from seeing major league at-bats, he makes this list. If Flores has a good year in 2010, he will most likely be a top-15 fantasy prospect in 2011. Grab him in dynasty leagues if you can.

9) Fernando Martinez (OF, New York Mets)  ETA: 2010

Martinez was initially vastly overrated, struggled in 2009, and is now somewhat underrated. A potentially above-average everyday outfielder, Martinez is only 21, and still has plenty of time to get his career back on track. His biggest problem so far has been his lack of health; to this point in his career, Martinez has made J.D. Drew look like Cal Ripken Jr. If Martinez were given 500 healthy major league at-bats this year, he could easily hit .280-15-70 with 10 stolen bases, making him a decent third or fourth outfielder in NL-only leagues, and a borderline bench player in regular leagues. The problem, however, is that between his injury history and the current composition of the Mets’ outfield, Martinez is unlikely to get more than 300 at-bats. He is worth a flier in the late rounds of any draft, and is especially worthy of consideration in keeper leagues, but should not be counted on for significant production in 2010.

10) Drew Storen (RP, Washington Nationals)  ETA: 2010

Storen does not have as high of a ceiling as several other prospects in the NL East, but takes the final spot in my top 10 simply because he is very likely to be a fantasy contributor by midseason. A three-pitch reliever with outstanding control, Storen will likely be shuffled between Double and Triple-A until June, so that the Nationals can delay his arbitration clock. The signing of Matt Capps hurts Storen’s chances to close this year, but Storen has better stuff than Capps and will likely be the closer by mid-2011. Even if he isn’t compiling saves, Storen will likely be a decent pick-up for fantasy owners, as he should provide Ks and a great WHIP, along with some holds and vulture wins. Storen probably shouldn’t be drafted in regular 10x10 leagues just yet, but is a nice late-round pick in NL-only leagues, and should be monitored very closely in leagues that score holds.

The Next 5

11) Julio Teheran (SP, Atlanta Braves)  ETA: 2013

Teheran has the most upside of any pitching prospect not named Strasburg in the division, but is several years away from a big league appearance. His 96 mph fastball and improving secondary pitches give him the ceiling of a future ace or dominant closer.

12) Phillippe Aumont (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)  ETA: 2011

Aumont’s talent dictates him being higher on this list, but as of 2009, it looks like he will be a reliever. If he closes, Aumont will still be a very valuable fantasy asset, but his injury history knocks him below the more projectable Teheran and the nearly MLB-ready Storen.

13) Freddie Freeman (1B, Atlanta Braves)  ETA: 2011

Freeman’s power diminished last season, leaving many to fear he’s more Casey Kotchman than Billy Butler. If Freeman regains his power, he will likely be a top-30 fantasy prospect next year. If not, he might fall out of the top-100 entirely.

14) Ike Davis (1B, New York Mets)  ETA: 2011

One of the Mets’ first round pick in 2008 (along with Reese Havens), Davis absolutely crushes right-handed pitching, but really struggles against lefties. If he can solve this problem, he will be a top-15 fantasy first baseman. If not, he’s the second coming of Adam LaRoche: still valuable, but for fantasy owners, a mediocre corner infield option at best.

15) Ian Desmond (SS, Washington Nationals)  ETA: 2010

Other players, such as Matt Dominguez, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado, are much better prospects, but Desmond is likely to contribute in 2010. He will never be a fantasy stud, but could hit .280-10-55 with 10 stolen bases, which, because of positions scarcity, would make him draft-worthy in NL-only leagues.

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Average Draft Position Analysis - 2010 Impact Rookies

Contributed by Michael Rathburn, blogging at Around the Cooler

Finding sleepers – especially impact rookies – is a fantasy baseball owners’ holy grail. With so much information out there these days, it is harder and harder to find a gem. Also, with teams forced to deal with salary constraints, players are being rushed to the majors a lot faster and their development can take a hit.

This is an analysis of the top eligible hitters for the American League/National League Rookie of the Year (“ROY”) award in 2010, along with an examination of their projected role and recommendations on whether you should draft them at their Average Draft Position (“ADP”) or pass on them. ROY eligibility is less than 130 at bats/50 innings pitched/45 days of service time. There were a few guys who just barely missed this list – Alcides Escobar, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, and Daniel Bard.

ADP’s are courtesy of Mock Draft Central with a sample size of 335 drafts from Jan 13 – Jan 29, 2010.

You can find the same ADP analysis for rookie pitchers at my site – Around the Cooler

Jason Heyward OF – Atlanta Braves

ADP: 317  Earliest: 184  Drafted: 19%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #1

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A/Starting RF in ATL

Analysis: If the 2007 draft were held today, Heyward would be the #1 pick – hands down. He has gone through the Atlanta minors like a hot knife through butter, getting better with each level. The temptation is there to slow him down and not rush him, but the talent just overcomes. His rise is very similar to Jay Bruce a couple years ago. The only knock on Heyward has been the nagging injuries, namely the hammy and bruised heel he suffered in the Arizona Fall League.

I’d prefer to see Heyward get those 200-300 at-bats in Triple-A, then come up June/July. Once he comes up, he won’t go back down. There is a little bit of a log-jam in that Matt Diaz did play well in 2009, but that won’t stop Atlanta from bringing up their most exciting hitting prospect since Andruw Jones.

I think the 317 ADP is right on with Heyward in comparing other OFs at the same spot. The key is watching the spring training battle with Diaz. If Heyward wins the spot, then you can project 450 ABs and the numbers should increase by 25%.

Projection: 350 ABs/15 HRs/50 RBIs/.280/.350/.450

Desmond Jennings OF – Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 266  Drafted: 1.8%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #5

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A

Analysis: In 2009, Jennings vaulted himself back into the upper echelon of prospects and lived up to the comparison of a Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton clone.

Jennings’ 2008 season was marred with injuries and question marks started to surface. Jennings put all those question marks to bed with a monster 2009 – 11 HRs/92 RBIs/.320 AVG/52 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A. Jennings probably needs the typical 300-400 at-bats in Triple-A, but a great sign for Jennings is the K/BB ratio. It’s almost 1:1. We’re not talking Cameron Maybin here; think Andrew McCutchen but slightly better. There’s certainly ADP value surrounding Jennings.

I can see the Rays bringing Jennings to the bigs on June 1. Jennings will be most valuable in AL-only league formats. He will at least become a great fourth OF after June 1.

Projection: 400 ABs/10 HRs/65 RBIs/25 SBs

Carlos Santana C – Cleveland Indians

ADP: 326  Earliest: 220  Drafted: 9.3%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #9

Opening Day Assignment: Starting C in Triple-A; with an outside shot to win the starting job in CLE

Analysis: Santana will always be noted for the trade in which the Indians sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The Dodgers already had Russell Martin and Blake has been huge for them. But the Indians got a Top 10 prospect and one of the top two catchers in the minor leagues. The path to the majors isn’t blocked for Santana, but 2 months worth of steady Triple-A pitching, to start the season, will do nothing but help his growth.

Just like Jennings, the thing I love about Santana is the K:BB ratio of 1:1.

There’s an outside shot the Indians will go with Santana on the Opening Day roster, but I doubt it. If you can afford to hold out on a catcher for 2 months, great, if not then you still have a guy who can play UTIL once he comes up. Or you can deal your starting C. Either way these numbers project a Top 15 catcher in mixed leagues and Top 10 in AL only leagues.

Projection: 350 ABs/10 HRs/55 RBIs/.265 AVG/.340 OBP/.450 SLG

 

Justin Smoak 1B – Texas Rangers

ADP: 231 (AL Only)  Drafted: 91.7%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #10

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B at Triple-A

Analysis: Smoak was the 11th pick in the 1st round by the Rangers in 2008. Comps to Mark Teixeira are inevitable. Smoak put up monster numbers at South Carolina but the power hasn’t translated to the minor leagues – as of yet. Also, Smoak only hit .244 at Triple-A last year in 200 at bats, so more seasoning is definitely needed.

The Rangers have a log-jam at 1B/DH right now with Chris Davis and Vladimir Guerrero. Smoak should be the starting 1B for the Rangers in 2011, or at worst the DH, provided the bat carries over this year. I would advise against drafting Smoak in any non-keeper leagues for 2010. If Davis or Guerrerro go down for an extended period of time, he‘s an immediate add in AL-only leagues.

Projection: September promotion; not much value in 2010 unless there’s an injury on the major league roster.

Buster Posey C – San Francisco Giants

ADP: 281  Earliest: 206  Drafted: 64%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #11

Opening Day Assignment: Backup C

Analysis: It sure was looking like Bengie Molina was a lock to sign with the Mets, and Posey would be handed the starting catcher job. But Molina resigned with the Giants, meaning Posey will have to wait until 2011 to receive the starting gig.

A nice #2 C play in NL-only leagues, but in mixed leagues you would only want to own Posey if you had Molina as well.

Projection: 300 at-bats and .280/.330/.420

Pedro Alvarez 1B/3B – Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 333  Earliest: 274  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #13

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A

Analysis: Alvarez was the #2 overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh was commended for drafting him despite his huge signing bonus demands. Alvarez didn’t set the world on fire in 2008, or early 2009, and there were rumors that he was out of shape. Then he got promoted to Double-A and a lot of people were scratching their heads. Well, no one is scratching anymore because he put up .333/.419/.590. There isn’t much of a roadblock at 1B for Alvarez with Jeff Clement. Clement could possibly be moved to C if Ryan Doumit is dealt.

I would like to see Alvarez get as many at-bats in Triple-A before getting the call to the Show. This will give him time to adjust to the pitching at that level, play 1B, and get into shape. Unless there is an injury or he’s hitting .350 at AAA, I think a Late 2010 callup is in order.

Projection: 200 ABs/12 HRs/30 RBIs/.275/.350/.500

Brett Wallace 1B/3B – Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 263  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #23

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A / DH in TOR

Analysis: Wallace came over to the Jays in the deal where Michael Taylor went to Oakland. Taylor was expendable because the Jays were already set in the OF and Lyle Overbay is on a one-year deal. Also, the Jays have a void at DH if Travis Snider can hold up in RF. Wallace has been a part of many discussions – people either love him or hate him. I personally love the guy. He has a very wide lower base and I marvel a dude who has worked his tail off to try and stick at 3B. It does look like he will have to go to 1B / DH, but he’s a hitter. I will take a pure hitter over tools at this stage in the game especially in fantasy baseball. Wallace is a nice play if he lands on the 25-man Opening Day roster.

Projection: 500 ABs/15 HRs/65 RBIs/.280/.330/.450

Scott Sizemore 2B – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 326  Earliest: 200  Drafted: 7.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 2B in DET

Analysis: With the departure of Placido Polanco to the Phillies, the job is Sizemore’s. He did suffer a broken left ankle during the Arizona Fall League, but expects to be 100% by spring training. I’m not a fan of where he’s being drafted. Freddy Sanchez, Kelly Johnson, Luis Castillo, and Alberto Callaspo (a personal favorite) are all better 2nd basemen and being drafted below Sizemore. He’s a nice pick in AL only leagues but only as a MI. The problem with Sizemore is that getting 500 at-bats is not a guarantee with Ramon Santiago also in the mix.

Projection: 400 ABs/.265/.325/.390/10 HRs/60 RBIs/12 SBs

Austin Jackson OF – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 332  Earliest: 236  Drafted: 2.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting CF in DET

Analysis: Jackson was much hyped for the past few years as part of the Yankees organization. He was part of the Curtis Granderson trade that also involved the Diamondbacks. Detroit is hoping that Jackson can win the starting CF spot in spring training to help this deal payoff faster. Jackson is going to be a player who won’t have much fantasy value; but will be much more valuable in real baseball because of his defense. He will be a 4th/ 5^th OF in AL-only leagues at best.

Projection: 450 ABs/6 HRs/50 RBIs/18 SBs/.275/.330/.370

Eric Young, Jr UTIL – Colorado Rockies

ADP: 332  Earliest: 258  Drafted: 1.5%

Opening Day Assignment: Super Utility in COL (NL’s Chone Figgins)

Analysis: Son of EY – Eric Young; EY; EY2 or EYJr will enter 2010 as the UTIL guy for the Rockies. He doesn’t have a starting position home right now with Dexter Fowler in CF and Clint Barmes at 2B, but if either struggle – he will get some playing time. Young has been compared to Figgins because of his speed and versatility. I don’t know if Young will be able to hit .300 at the big league level, but if given 400-500 at-bats the SB’s will be 50-plus. I don’t see him getting enough ABs this year to warrant a draft selection.

Projection: 200 ABs/3 HRs/20 RBIs/20 SBs/.275/.325/.390

Michael Brantley OF – Cleveland Indians

ADP: N/R

Opening Day Assignment: Starting LF in CLE

Analysis: With the success of guys like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and Rajai Davis last year; owners are going to want a look at Brantley, who fits the same mold. Tons of speed, gets on base, but doesn’t do much else. The good thing about Brantley is that the starting LF job is his and he will get ABs. He will be a great cheap steals guy for you and is worth a flyer around the 20 th pick in AL-Only leagues.

Projection: 5 HRs/40 RBIs/30 SBs/.275/.350/.375'

Ian Desmond SS – Washington Nationals

ADP: 212 (NL Only)  Earliest: 198  Drafted: 15.0%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting SS in WAS

Analysis: Desmond inherits the SS spot left open when Cristian Guzman was moved to 2B. The wild card will be if the Nats end up signing Orlando Hudson, which would crush Desmond’s value for 2010. In 82 at-bats last year, he put up four HRs and 12 RBIs, while hitting .280. Sample size is small, but it was enough to make him the front-runner for the starting SS job. Desmond has shown pretty good pop in the minor leagues, thus, it isn’t of the question for him to be a 10-15 HR guy.

He comes in around the 12th best SS in the NL, so you are looking at a MI play only. His draft position is a tad low, and I think if you reach on him a round or two early it will be a good move.

Projection: 400 ABs/.270/.330/.435/10 HRs/55 RBIs/15 SBs

David Freese 3B – St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 332  Earliest: 272  Drafted: 2.1%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 3B in STL

Analysis: Freese was supposed to be the starting 3B last year for the Cardinals when Troy Glaus went down with an injury. It never happened and everyone that grabbed him in NL-only leagues (myself included) dropped him just as fast too.

Freese is an older prospect at 26 years of age, but there are no roadblocks – so it’s sink or swim for him in 2010. When looking at Freese there are some things to like and some red flags.

The Good – He’s hit .300 at every level in the minors with strong OPS numbers.

The Bad – His BABIP is ridiculous; mostly over .350; the K% over 20%

“The Bad” tells me is he’s more likely to be a .265 hitter at the big league level; not .300. If everything goes right, Freese could be a Top 15 3B in 2010, which would put in that 250 ADP range. Freese is a good candidate for NL-only leagues at 3B or CI spots.

Projection: 500 ABs/18 HRs/70 RBIs/.265/.335/.440

Touch 'Em All: Julio Teheran, David Bromberg, plus New Takes on Dan Hudson and Logan Morrisson

It’s been a long time since we’ve taken a tour of the minors in cyberspace. With the Arizona Fall League over and some of our favorite sites releasing top prospect lists, it seemed like a good week to check in with some of our friends.

As we sprint out of the box, we check in with Mike Newman, the scouting aficionado of Scouting The Sally. Mike recently provided a first-hand report on Julio Teheran, a starting pitcher in the Atlanta Braves organization. Just 18-years-old, Teheran was recently listed as the No. 3 prospect in the Braves system by Baseball America (BA). Mike believes the kid has some maturing to do, but could soon garner elite prospect status:

Teheran will likely begin the 2010 season back in Rome [Low-A] where I may catch him again in mid-May. By then, I hope to see him beginning to move from pure thrower to pitcher as he begins to refine his game. The fastball is elite, but the rest of his repertoire lags significantly behind. With a healthy season, Teheran should cement himself firmly in the top 100 prospects and will undoubtedly start to draw Neftali Feliz comparisons since Feliz started as a part of the Atlanta Braves organization as well.

Newman also runs a site called Prospect Tube, where we found this great video footage of Teheran:

Our loyal readers know that our Bill Root recently scouted White Sox prospect, Dan Hudson, as our #15 Top MLB Fantasy Prospect. Today, Marc Hulet at FanGraphs is furthering the Hudson-hype by listing him as the No. 2 prospect for the Chi-Sox. The right-hander has had a meteoric rise to the majors. Not even listed among Chicago’s 2009 Top 10 Prospects at BA, he logged 18.2 innings last year for the big squad. Both Root and Hulet believes Hudson will be pitching in the majors in 2010. An amazing feat, as Marc points out, “He has a chance to spend all of 2010 in the White Sox rotation despite beginning ‘09 in low-A ball.”

Time to give our Twins fans some love. Lisa Winston, a reporter for MLB.com, offered a glance of Minnesota's minor league system last week. Her pick for the organizational pitcher of 2009? David Bromberg.

Not to be confused with the folk singer of the same name, the 22-year-old made sweet music on the mound for Fort Myers, going 13-4 with a 2.70 ERA while striking out 148 in 153 1/3 innings and limiting hitters to a .227 average. The 6-5, 255-pounder led the Minors with 177 strikeouts in 150 innings in 2008 at Low-A Beloit, and led the Florida State League in strikeouts this season. A draft-and-follow sign in 2006 after being taken in the 32nd round of 2005, he's finally getting some love (and a 40-man roster spot) with his lively low-90s fastball, changeup and curveball, which are his bread and butter. He’s a gamer with tremendous poise and mound presence.

Time to head for home as we check in with our buddy Grey at Razzball.com, who spotlighted another one of Bill Root’s Top Fantasy Prospects, Logan Morrison. As part of his 2010 Fantasy Outlook series, Grey sees much of the same potential in Morrison as Bill did. Specifically, pointing out how a hand injury sapped Logan’s power last season. While Rooter thinks it’s possible that “Bam” Morrison could get a look as Jeremy Hermida’s replacement in RF for the Marlins, he’s a shoe-in for the regular lineup in 2011. Grey’s outlook is similar:

Morrison is still only 22 so the Marlins will probably hold off on bringing up, but if they do (remember, like that pony-tailed guy standing in front of your student union, the Marlins promote aggressively), then he will definitely be someone to look at.  Though all I expect in 2010 is 30/7/45/.265/3 and a mid-season call up.  Not worth it in mixed leagues, but definitely someone to look at in NL-Only and keeper leagues.

So that’s what I’ve been reading. How about y’all? Have you come across any interesting prospect reading, lately?