MLB Fantasy Prospects

Top 25 Fantasy Keepers Under 25-Years-Old: Part I

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

What do Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum, and Troy Tulowitzki have in common? None of them qualify for this list of the Top 25 best fantasy cogs under the age of 25.

Using the cut-off date of Opening Day 2010 as my guide, I poured over every roster and checked the age of every fantasy relevant player on every MLB team. After excluding everyone with a DOB that ends in 84 or later, here are my results. Fresh from my cheat-sheet to your computer screen, I present to you a keeper-league owner’s best friend: The Top 25 Under 25.

As you will see, this feature is split into two parts. No worries, I won’t tease you – the Top 12 is in the first installment.

All Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

1) Evan Longoria (3B, Tampa Bay Rays) Age: 24, ADP: 9

• (2nd among 3B)

An absolute fantasy monster, Longoria has everything a fantasy owner could want from a first round pick, as he is balanced, reliable, and plays a shallow position. Longoria is one of the best and most exciting players in the game, and I have no problem with his ADP. That said, in non-keeper leagues, I’m not sure if I agree with him going behind the suddenly undervalued David Wright. Grab Longoria in the bottom half of the first round, and except a monster season of .285/35 HRs/120 RBIs/8 SBs.

2) Justin Upton (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks) Age: 22, ADP: 24

• (6th among OF)

Baseball America’s second highest rated prospect in 2006, fantasy owners have long had their eyes on Upton, who’s ADP has been steadily rising over the past two years. I’m as much of a believer in his potential as anyone, and I think he makes a great third-round pick, making his current ADP of 24 very fair. I like Upton to hit .290-30-90 with 18 SB this year, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 20 points better either. Don’t take him over Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, or Carl Crawford, but you can make the argument that Upton is the fourth best fantasy outfielder heading into the season (although I personally like Grady Sizemore more).

3) Felix Hernandez (SP, Seattle Mariners) Age: 23, ADP: 32

• (5th among SP)

While I personally refrain from drafting pitchers within the first four rounds of a draft, King Felix’s talent is undeniable. Thus, his ADP of 32 is fair. He’s currently ranked behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, and Zack Greinke, and while I would personally rank Hernandez above Greinke, they’re too close for me to have a serious problem with it. Hernandez has only gotten better each year since being called up to the majors, and I expect that trend to continue in 2010. Watch Hernandez go 18-6 with a 2.25 ERA and 220 Ks this season, and enjoy as he anchors your fantasy staff.

4) Pablo Sandoval (3B, San Francisco Giants) Age: 23, ADP: 38

• (6th among 3B)

I’ve never been a huge Sandoval believer, but even his biggest fans should accept that selecting the “Kung Fu Panda” in the fourth round is a reach. Sandoval is a good fantasy option at third base, and I like him to hit around .315-22-90, but those numbers do not warrant him being selected before players like Justin Morneau or Ichiro Suzuki. Sandoval would be a fine choice in the early sixth/late fifth round, but if he’s my fourth-best fantasy player, I’m not going to feel too comfortable.

5) Yovani Gallardo (SP, Milwaukee Brewers) Age: 24, ADP: 88

• (17th among SP)

Gallardo is one of my favorite fantasy pitchers headed into this year, and I’ve waited on pitching and made him my fantasy ace in several of my drafts thus far. Gallardo represents great value with his current ADP, as fantasy owners who select him will be getting a stud four-category producer in the ninth round. The Brewers’ defense is less than phenomenal, but I still expect Gallardo to take a step forward and go 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 225 Ks this year. Adam Wainwright and Javier Vazquez have higher ADPs, but ride Gallardo instead in 2010.

6) Tommy Hanson (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 23, ADP: 80

• (16th among SP)

Gallardo and Hanson are basically interchangeable in my rankings, as I believe Hanson will have a phenomenal year as well. All of Hanson’s advanced stats (such as an insanely low, Sabathia-esque 0.7 HR/9) suggest that he will continue to have success in 2010. While I’m not quite ready to give him the title of fantasy ace yet, I wouldn’t be surprised if he earns that distinction this year. I project that Hanson will go 16-4 with a 3.25 ERA, 190 Ks, and a very low WHIP. He’s a solid pick from the seventh round on and a superb No. 2 fantasy starter.

7) Jay Bruce (OF, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 23, ADP: 116

• (38th among OF)

It pains me to write about the type of season I believe Bruce is going to have, because as an active participator in fantasy leagues, I don’t want to see him lose his sleeper status. I believe Bruce will break out in a huge way this year and be a Top 50 fantasy player, hitting .280-35-100. Many of you will be skeptical of that projection, but anyone with Bruce’s talent, a BABIP of .221, and a 16.8 HR/FB percentage is destined for greatness. Even if those advanced stats don’t convince you, please at least help change the fact that Bruce is being selected behind players such as Brad Hawpe, Alex Rios, and Jason Kubel. Grab Bruce in the eight or ninth round, watch him pile up the power numbers, and don’t forget to thank me in October.

8) Matt Wieters (C, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 23, ADP: 91

• (4th among C)

Wieters is a rare example of a player whose ADP and positional ranking make perfect sense to me. After a solid but unspectacular 2009 season, I project Wieters to hit .285-20-85 this year, and do believe that he will be the fourth most valuable fantasy catcher, behind only Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Victor Martinez. The tenth round is a great spot to grab Wieters, and I wouldn’t call grabbing him in the ninth to be much of a reach either.

9) Brett Anderson (SP, Oakland Athletics) Age: 22, ADP: 155

• (35th among SP)

Anderson is another one of my favorite sleepers headed into the 2010 season, as I see the lefty becoming a Top 25 fantasy starter. Anderson needs to do a better job of working out of jams (only a 67-percent LOB), but has the arsenal needed to shut down hitters in the spacious Coliseum. I believe Anderson will have a breakout year and go 15-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 170 Ks, outperforming many pitchers drafted ahead of him, such as Scott Baker, Max Scherzer, and Wandy Rodriguez. Anderson’s current ADP has him going in the 16th round, and unless I was already loaded in the starting pitching department, I would grab him there in a heartbeat.

10) Gordon Beckham (2B/3B, Chicago White Sox) Age: 23, ADP: 87

• (10th among 2B, 9th among 3B)

I love Beckham’s position versatility this year, and given the shady track records of Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist, he could end up being a Top Seven second baseman for fantasy owners. I project an all-around solid .285-20-70 line with 10 SBs for Beckham this year, and believe he’ll be even better in the future. The eighth round is a little too early to take him for my tastes, and I’d still rather have Dan Uggla, but given his 2B eligibility, Beckham is a borderline Top 100 fantasy player in my book.

11) Adam Jones (OF, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 24, ADP: 89

• (30th among OF)

I feel the same way about Jones that I do about Sandoval, in that I do like him, but apparently not as much as some, as his current ADP has him as a ninth round selection. Fantasy owners can dream on Jones, as he has 30 HR/20 SB potential, but his low ISO and 28.1% FB rate lead me to believe he may never quite hit the 30 HR threshold. I project Jones to hit .275-20-80 with 18 SBs, which makes him a fine 11th-13th round pick, but until Jones proves he can start generating some more lift with his swing, he’s not a Top 100 player to me.

12) Clayton Kershaw (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) Age: 22, ADP: 94

• (19th among SP)

People will likely be surprised to see Kershaw this far down on the list, and based on upside alone, he’s the best pitcher in this ranking not named Felix. But people forget that even Hernandez needed a few years in the majors before he fully dominated, and I see Kershaw following the same path. I believe Kershaw will be very useful as a fourth fantasy starter this year, but he’s being well over-drafted because of his name value, and is not someone I would select with one of my first ten picks. Kershaw will likely be a Top 10 pitcher some day, but for now, I expect him to go 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 180 Ks, making him a good but overvalued fantasy asset.

Follow this link to see 13 thru 25...

2010 MLBFP Divisional Series: Top 10 National League West Fantasy Prospects

by Ben Carsley

Another prospect-rich division, the National League West features the best collection of impact pitchers we have seen thus far. With a nice blend of 2010 impact players, such as Buster Posey, and names for the distant future, such as Tyler Matzek, the NL West should be of significant importance to fantasy owners of every kind.

The Top 10

1) Buster Posey (C, San Francisco Giants) ETA: 2010

Giants fans and fantasy owners alike let out a loud groan when the Giants resigned Bengie Molina for 2010, hurting Posey’s chances of getting a significant number of major league at-bats this season. One of the best prospects, fantasy or otherwise, in all of baseball, Posey projects as a future all-star catcher and Top 75 fantasy player. The fifth overall pick in the 2008 draft, Posey has skyrocketed through the Giants’ system, and is essentially major-league ready after only 459 minor league ABs. If he were to start all season, Posey could easily hit .300-10-70, which would probably make him a Top Seven fantasy catcher. In his prime, I predict lines of .320-20-90 for Posey, which means he will likely be competing with Joe Mauer and Matt Wieters for best fantasy catcher overall. Unfortunately, Posey will start 2010 as either the backup to Molina or as the starter in Triple-A, and I wouldn’t recommend taking him in redraft leagues at the beginning of the season. If Molina gets hurt or San Francisco finally comes to its senses, however, Posey is an absolute must-have in all leagues.

2) Madison Bumgarner (SP, San Francisco Giants) ETA: 2010

As was noted in MLBFP’s Top 25 Fantasy Series, hating on Madison Bumgarner has become all the rage as of late. This is, as far as I can tell, due exclusively to his fading velocity, as the young lefty was topping out in the 87-90 mph range by season’s end. While a decrease in velocity can certainly be a red flag, I believe that in Bumgarner’s case, it’s just an aberration, as he actually threw one more inning in 2008 (142) than in 2009 (141), and did not experience a similar drop in velocity in his first season. Fastball speed aside, Bumgarner’s ceiling remains extremely high, as he has the stuff, make-up, and body type to be a true number one starter. A few years down the line, Bumgarner will win 17-20 games per year, with a sub-3.25 ERA and a sub-1.20 WHIP, to go along with 160-190 strikeouts per season, essentially making him a slightly better version of Red Sox lefty Jon Lester. Bumgarner will compete for a spot in the Giants’ rotation out of spring training, and has a decent chance of winning one. If he does, he’s a solid upside pick to fill out all fantasy rotations. If the Giants keep him in Triple-A for a few months, Bumgarner is still very likely to make a fantasy impact at some point this season, and should be watched closely.

3) Tyler Matzek (SP, Colorado Rockies) ETA: 2012

Matzek was the 1 th overall pick in the 2009 draft, but was arguably the third best prospect, behind only Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley. A big, solidly built lefty, Matzek has four average-or-better pitches, and while his command and control do need some work, they’re still above average for someone who’s 19-years-old. Matzek is probably a few years away from being a fantasy contributor, but is advanced for his age, and will likely breeze through the bottom half of the Rockies’ minor league system. Down the line, Matzek could slot right behind Ubaldo Jiminez and ahead of fellow prospects Christian Friedrich and Jhoulys Chacin, giving the Rockies one of the majors’ best starting rotations. He’s all projection at this point, but has Scott Kazmir-like potential, as he should post a sub-3.50 ERA with 15-17 wins and around 200 strikeouts annually, making him a very good second fantasy starter. Matzek may still be unclaimed in dynasty leagues, and is a great pick-up if available. He could easily be a Top 15 fantasy prospect by this time next year.

4) Jarrod Parker (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks) ETA: Mid-2012

Parker ranks ahead of Matzek in terms of ceiling, but his medical history knocks him down a peg here, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in October and will miss most, if not all, of the 2010 season. One of the best pitchers in the low minors in 2008, Parker’s elbow did what few hitters seemed to be able to do: slow his ascent to the majors. In 2008, Parker posted a 3.55 ERA to go along with 12 wins and an 8.9 K/9 ratio. Although only 21-years-old, Parker already features a mid-90’s fastball, a great slider, a 12-6 curveball, and a developing changeup. His size makes the comparison a little awkward, but Parker’s stuff and bulldog mentality remind me a lot of a Josh Beckett. Fortunately for Parker, he will pitch in the NL West and not the AL East, meaning his numbers could be even better than Beckett’s. Once he matures, Parker’s ceiling is 18-20 wins, a sub-3.50 ERA, and around 200 strikeouts per year. Those numbers would make Parker a fantasy ace and Top 50 player overall.

5) Dee Gordon (SS, Los Angeles Dodgers) ETA: Mid-2012

Another raw but incredibly talented player, Gordon possesses the one thing nearly all fantasy owners are always looking for: tremendous speed. Gordon, the son of major league pitcher Tom Gordon, hit .301-3-35 last year, and led the Midwest League with a whopping 73 stolen bases. Gordon’s game does have some flaws, as he needs to get more comfortable at shortstop, needs to improve his success rate with stolen bases (he was thrown out 25 times in 2009), and, to this point, has little power. But even considering these deficiencies, Gordon is one of the most exciting prospects in the minors, and certainly deserving of attention from fantasy owners. A common comparison for Gordon is Jimmy Rollins, but I think Gordon will be a tick faster than Rollins, leading me to prefer a Jose Reyes parallel. It’s a lofty comparison to live up to, and Gordon has a long way to go, but if he reaches his ceiling, I could see him hitting .300-15-60 with 50-plus stolen bases and 120 runs a year. Those numbers would make him a Top 25 fantasy player, and that potential makes him a must-have in all but the shallowest dynasty leagues.

6) Christian Friedrich (SP, Colorado Rockies) ETA: 2011

Of all the pitchers on this list, Friedrich is perhaps the safest bet to reach his considerable potential, as he doesn’t have the injury history of Parker, is more experienced than Matzek, and has fewer red flags than Bumgarner. A big, powerful southpaw, Friedrich is not your typical “finesse left-hander,” but rather a hard thrower with sharp secondary pitches. Friedrich features a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, a good curve and slider, and an emerging change-up, which will someday give him an impressive arsenal of pitches. Friedrich doesn’t profile as an ace like the others on this list have, but rather as a number three or borderline number two starter, much like a left-handed Jered Weaver. Once in the majors, he will post 14-17 wins, to go along with a sub-4.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts, which will make him an outstanding third or fourth fantasy pitcher. Friedrich has been gaining momentum in the fantasy world, but may still be available in dynasty leagues. If he is, he shouldn’t be within moments of reading this article.

7) Jaff Decker (OF, San Diego Padres) ETA: Mid-2012

Decker has been an absolute OBP machine since he began his professional career in 2008, and is now starting to get some notice for it. Still a week away from his 20th birthday, Decker hit .299-16-64 with a .442 OBP last season in Low-A. Decker is not tremendously athletic, but can flat out hit, and has great selectivity at the plate. He’s never going to steal many bases for fantasy owners, but could contribute in every other offensive category, and will be especially valuable in leagues that count OBP. If all goes well for Decker, he should post Hideki Matsui-like lines of .290-25-90, with a .380 OBP, consistently in the majors, which would make him a solid third fantasy outfielder. Decker is a few years away, and while he needs to prove himself against better pitchers, there is a lot to like here. If he adds even more power than expected, Decker could become one of the better overall fantasy prospects in baseball. He’s not a must-own in dynasty leagues, but he’s getting there pretty quickly, and will likely be gone by mid-season. If you have the room on your roster, grab Decker now.

8) Eric Young Jr. (2B/OF, Colorado Rockies) ETA: 2010

Similarly to how the Giants screwed fantasy players by signing Bengie Molina, the Rockies screwed owners by signing Melvin Mora to be their utility player in 2010. With any kind of regular playing time, Young could steal upwards of 50 bases a year, as he has stolen an incredible 264 times over the past four seasons. Although he is unlikely to ever be an All-Star, Young could be a tremendous value to the Rockies at the bottom of their order, as he is capable of hitting around .290-5-45 while using his aforementioned speed to alter games. Young is shaky in center field, and doesn’t have a big enough bat to project well in an outfield corner, so his future is likely at second base. Instead of giving the dynamic Young a shot, however, the Rockies appear to be content to let the streaky Clint Barmes and the washed up Mora compete for the second base job. If he does receive regular playing time, Young could be a poor man’s Michael Bourn, and be a solid middle infield option for all fantasy players. Based on his lack of opportunity, however, I recommend keeping Young on your watch list instead of drafting him in mixed leagues, unless Barmes goes down with an injury.

9) Jhoulys Chacin (SP, Colorado Rockies) ETA: 2010

Yet another talented Rockies starting pitcher on this list, Chacin has a lower upside than Matzek or Friedrich, but has already reached the majors and will likely be there to stay by the end of 2010. Chacin lead the minors in victories in 2008, but wasn’t quite as dominant last year. He pitched well in Double and Triple-A, going 9-8 with a 3.21 ERA and a 7.42 K/9 ratio, but struggled when he made a cameo in the majors, as his ERA rose to nearly 5.00. Chacin profiles as an above average middle-of-the-rotation starter in the Doug Davis mold, but could still be useful to fantasy owners. If Chacin nets 15 wins per year, with a sub 4.25 ERA and around 180 strikeouts, he would be a solid fourth or fifth fantasy pitcher, and at worst an excellent spot starter. If he falters as a starter, Chacin has more than enough stuff to become a premier set-up man or a decent closer, which might actually enhance his fantasy value. Chacin will likely start 2010 in Triple-A, but could push Jason Hammel or Jorge de la Rosa for some starts by mid-season. I wouldn’t draft him in March or April, but he may be worthy of owning around mid-season.

10) Simon Castro (SP, San Diego Padres) ETA: Mid-2012

Castro is a great fantasy sleeper for dynasty owners, as he was quietly one of the best pitchers in the low minors last season. Pitching in Low-A, Castro went 10-6 with a 3.33 ERA and a 10.1 K/9 ratio. Castro struggled in his first two professional seasons, but has now posted a sub-4.00 ERA’s with great strikeout numbers in back-to-back seasons, leading me to believe he’s the real deal. Castro’s ceiling is actually pretty similar to Christian Friedrich’s. The only difference is that Castro is about a year and a half behind Friedrich in development. If all goes well, Castro should be a good second or great third starter in a rotation, whose numbers will only be enhanced by playing in Petco Park. If he can win 15-17 games per season, with a sub-4.00 and 190 strikeouts, Castro would be a Top 25 fantasy pitcher. If he moves to the bullpen down the line, he projects as an elite closer. Either way, Castro is a great buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues, and has the upside of a Matt Garza-type starter.

The Next Five

11) Zack Wheeler (SP, San Francisco Giants) ETA: 2013

Wheeler is very raw and needs to work on his command, but could be next in a line of great San Francisco pitchers who’ve work their way through the system in the past half-decade. Wheeler’s plus fastball, inconsistent curveball, and developing change-up remind me a lot of a young Matt Cain, and that is exactly the kind of upside Wheeler possesses.

12) Chris Withrow (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) ETA: Mid-2011

Withrow is a remarkably similar pitcher to Wheeler, but is ranked lower here because I believe Wheeler has a slightly higher ceiling. Still, Withrow projects as a number two or borderline number one starter, whose only problem is command. He could slate behind Clayon Kershaw and ahead of fellow prospects Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin to give the Dodgers a tremendous young rotation in 2012.

13) Bobby Borchering (3B, Arizona Diamondbacks) ETA: 2012

Borchering was the best power hitting prep prospect in the 2009 draft, and the Diamondbacks were glad to snag him with the 16th overall pick. His calling card is and always will be his power, and if he stays at third base, he could be the next Troy Glaus. A potential 30 home run hitter, Borchering won’t be ready for a while, but isn’t a bad grab in deep dynasty leagues.

14) Hector Gomez (2B/SS, Colorado Rockies) ETA: 2012

The fifth Rockie on this list, Gomez profiles as an Orlando Cabrera-type fantasy player, capable of hitting. 280-15-70 with 25 SBs down the line. Gomez has the ability to stay at short, but will likely break into the majors as a second baseman because of incumbent shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Those numbers from a middle infield spot make him worthy of fantasy attention, but I wouldn’t recommend grabbing Gomez in dynasty leagues until he proves he can stay healthy for an entire season.

15) Donovan Tate (OF, San Diego Padres) ETA: 2013

Tate is all projection at this point, but has a body and tool set to make scouts drool. A big, powerful center fielder, Tate’s ceiling projects as either Torii Hunter with more power, or Jim Edmonds with more speed. Tate won’t see the majors for at least two and a half years, but he’s someone every fantasy owner should keep an eye on.

Fantasy Hot Stove Heats Up: Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Yankees Pull Off Seven Player Trade!

Contributed by Jeff Clemens

I know you’ve been patiently waiting for MLBFP’s fantasy breakdown of the first blockbuster deal from MLB’s Winter Meetings. The waiting is over.

The Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks have agreed to a trade that would send Detroit center fielder Curtis Granderson to New York, Tigers right hander Edwin Jackson and Yankees right hander Ian Kennedy to Arizona, and D-backs pitchers Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, along with Yankees prospect Austin Jackson and lefty Phil Coke, to Detroit.

Let’s get to fantasy business.

New York Yankees: OF Curtis Granderson (from Detroit)

Granderson, 28, hit .249 with 30 home runs, 71 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in 160 games for the Tigers in 2009. His batting average plummeted from .302 in 2007 to .280 in 2008 to .249 last year. Granderson does have issues with lefties, hitting just .183 in 180 at-bats against the crafty southpaws. Bottom line, Granderson is a player who will hit 30 home runs & 20 stolen bases. However, considering the fact he will be hitting in New York with a short porch in right and the sick lineup surrounding him, I see marginal uptick in his fantasy value on the horizon. 

Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Edwin Jackson (from Detroit) & RHP Ian Kennedy (from New York)

Jackson, 26, is coming off a breakout season. The 6-3, 210-pounder was 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA while striking out 161 in '09 with Detroit. Jackson did struggle his last 92 innings, posting a 5.07 ERA and giving up 17 home runs. Let’s be honest, it’s that atrocious second half numbers that opened the door for a deal. Jackson’s strikeouts will go north and his ERA will go south in National League. Despite the nega-hype surrounding Jackson, jump on him in all formats. C’mon, does anyone doubt the stuff?

Kennedy, 25, has struggled with injuries in each of the last two seasons. In May, he was diagnosed with an aneurysm near his right shoulder and underwent surgery. The right hander went to the Arizona Fall League and posted a 4.25 ERA over 29 2/3 innings. He struck out 28 and walked five. Kennedy is expected to take the fourth slot in Arizona’s rotation. You are looking at an NL-only sleeper.    

Detroit Tigers: OF Austin Jackson & LHP Phil Coke (from New York); RHP Max Scherzer & LHP Daniel Schlereth (from Arizona)

Jackson, 22, has the skills to be an everyday center fielder at the Major League level despite what my “humble” MLBFP Executive Editor (Bill Root) thinks of him. He hit .300 last season at Triple A Scranton with 23 doubles, 4 home runs, 65 RBIs and 24 steals. While the power stats aren’t there, he does have some pop that will begin to rear its pretty head as he develops. I am expecting a response from Root because of these positive comments – he’s a mega-hater.

Coke, 27, Coke was 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances. While he pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings in the AL playoffs, he gave up two runs over 1 1/3 innings in the World Series. He’s fantasy waste – move along.  

Scherzer, 25, went 9-11 with a 4.12 ERA in 30 starts for Arizona last season. Remember the name! While most say he needs a third pitch. He went on to strike out 66 in 56 innings in his rookie year, and 174 over 170 1/3 innings last year, his full season in the rotation. Scherzer has 12-15 wins written all over him and will be the third pitcher in the Tigers rotation behind Verlander and Porcello. Just remember who led you in his direction.  

Schlereth, 23, made his major league debut this year and went 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA in 21 relief appearances, with 22 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. He did have Tommy John surgery his senior year of high school. So, while he doesn't throw as hard as he once used too, he's still a lefty who throws around 93-94 mph. This lefty has the stuff to be a strong set-up man, or shaky closer. Stash him away in your keeper leagues because of his speculative value.  

#24 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Jarrod Parker (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks) - Scouting Report

No fantasy owner ever wants to hear these two words muttered when it comes to their pitchers—Tommy John. Jarrod Parker is plummeting down prospect lists because of a recent strained right elbow. There were fears he would need the dreaded TJ surgery. However, he’s responding well to a rehab program and hopefully will avoid the procedure. Of course, look what the surgery did for Josh Johnson; he now has a bionic arm that throws a heater in the upper-90s. Hmm…Jarrod, maybe a re-constructed elbow isn’t such a bad thing?

Parker has a sweet four-pitch repertoire that includes a mid-90s fastball, curve, slider, and developing change. The 6’1”, 180 lb righty has impressed the D-backs’ brass with his advanced poise, fierce competitiveness, and command in the zone. In 97.1 IP between High-A and Double-A, Parker had a 3.14 ERA, 95:38 K/BB ratio, and .255 BAA. He also showed a knack for inducing ground balls with a 1.60 ground out/air out rate. Notably, Parker struggled more at Double-A with a 3.68 ERA, 3.91 BB/9, and .272 BAA. However, just like Madison Bumgarner, he was 20-years-old playing at a high-level. Let’s give him a break.

D-backs manager/former player personnel guru A.J. Hinch is extremely eager to get his kids out of diapers and into the majors. Before Parker went down with the elbow injury, there were rumors he was an option for the big league rotation coming out of spring training next year. Let’s hope this injury puts those plans to rest; Parker could use more time.

I love any prospect hurler with a bulldog mentality, advanced secondary pitches, and the ability to miss bats. Parker has all three going for him. You should use this elbow issue as a fantasy buying opportunity. If you looking to acquire him via trade, stress to the other owner how long he could miss if he needs TJ surgery. Shoot, I’m confident he can be a stud even if he needs the procedure done. Fantasy tip for the day: take the risk with elbows, avoid shoulder problems.

Mark my words, Parker will be a fantasy ace. As long as the elbow recovers, we should see Parker in the majors by July of next year. We have nothing but fantasy love for this kid here at MLBFP.