MLB Fantasy Prospects

Toronto Blue Jays Scouting Jose Julio Ruiz (1B/OF, Free Agent, Cuba); Other Cuban Free Agents Still Waiting For A Call

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Yesterday, Morgan Campbell of the Toronto Star provided a nice update on a few Cuban free agents that have been making the rounds. In particular, he reported that Blue Jays’ general manager Alex Anthopoulos was present for a private workout of Jose Julio Ruiz, who has also been linked to the Texas Rangers.  My amigo Cubano, from Cuban Ball Players, initially broke the news of the tryout and predicted that it “…will be probably the last workout session for José Julio Ruiz before deciding which team to play for.”

Campbell further reports that Leslie Anderson, who I’ve covered in the past, is practicing with a pro team in Mexico while awaiting a Major League contract and Yuniesky Maya remains unsigned despite rumors that he’s close to signing with the Red Sox. Listed as 28-years-old, there hasn’t been much hype surrounding this guy. Cubano ranks Maya as his fourth best Cuban MLB prospect, but I believe his age has been a detriment to his signing a big league contract.

Hey Cubano, could you possibly leave us a comment as to why your “cuarto mejor prospecto” has yet to find a team?

Today, Campbell wrote a feature article focusing on the recent influx of Cubans trying to break into the MLB. In an excellent piece of reporting, he suggests that Dayan Viciedo’s contract with the White Sox may have been the watershed moment that caused so many Cuban players to defect:

As years passed, the slow leak of top talent continued – Orlando and Livan Hernandez, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras all left one by one. But none of those departures inspired a surge like the one that has occurred over the last 18 months.

[…]three players' departures – Angels star Kendry Morales, Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar and White Sox prospect Dayan Viciedo – changed players' minds about leaving Cuba.

Neither Morales nor Escobar was a full-time starter in Cuba, but each has excelled in the majors[…]eyes across the island opened wide when Viciedo signed with the White Sox.

Touted as Cuba's next great shortstop, Viciedo entered the National Series as a 15-year-old in 2005, and hit 14 home runs the next year. From there[…]his production declined, yet after defecting in 2008 he still signed a four-year, $10-million (all figures U.S.) deal with Chicago.

"Viciedo had a very significant impact on the thinking of Cuban players[…]They thought, `If he can get $10 million, then what am I worth?"

Very interesting stuff there. Cuban veterans such as Anderson, Maya, and Ruiz are learning an important lesson about MLB executives – it’s all about potential. General managers and scouts don’t care about past accolades in a league where they have little access, control, nor influence. These clubs want to invest in skills they can develop within their own organization, with coaches they trust. Whether it be with the Blue Jays, the Rangers, or some other team, my sense is that Ruiz will sign first, but not for the dinero he envisioned when he started this journey.

Hisanori Takahashi Signs With The New York Mets

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors did a top-notch job today as he tracked the unfolding story of Hisanori Takahashi reaching a minor league deal with the Mets. The deal will pay the Japanese import $1 million if he reaches the majors, plus an additional $2 million in performance bonuses. Takahashi is the second player the Mets signed from Japan this season, as the club inked Ryota Igarashi back in December.

Earlier this month, Brandon Siefken of Japan Baseball News told me that Takahashi was holding out for a starting gig. I’m guessing an incentive-laden, minor league deal was the only way he could receive an opportunity to compete for one. At the very least, it seems the Metropolitans are willing to let him prove himself as a starter in Triple-A. This led me to ask the question, will this guy every see Citi Field? Siefken provided me with an answer, earlier this evening:

Takahashi is certainly good enough to get out of the minors and play in MLB. I think the problem is that he thinks he is better than he actually is. His talent was never in question, it was his attitude and negotiation tactics.

Takahashi has always insisted on being a starter for a MLB team. Most teams did not believe he was worth of that. Despite some nice numbers in Japan in 2009 (2.94 ERA 1.31 WHIP), most scouts (myself included) feel his lack of work (144 IP) and sudden success (2009 was by far his best year ever) raised red flags.

If you look closer at his numbers in 2009, he gave up a whopping 1.00 HR/9IP against very soft bats in Japan. Further, pitching in the Central League, he faced very powerless teams and still gave up home runs at an alarming rate.

Takahashi will fill in well in middle relief or a set-up role, but as a starter, he will get tagged. He gave up 9.19 hits per inning in his best season ever – to very forgiving and soft batters. Even as a reliever, he could be in for some ugly innings.

Not sure there is much else to say, friends. My advice? Hype this dude up like crazy to you league mates and then giggle to yourself when they waste a pick on this non-prospect.

Los Angeles Angels Pursuing Adeiny Hechevarria (SS, Free Agent, Cuba)

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: several big market clubs could soon be involved in a high-stakes bidding war for a young, Cuban phenom. Only this time, instead of a tantalizing fireballer (see Aroldis Chapman), we’re talking about a 19-year-old shortstop with, apparently, unlimited potential. This afternoon, Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com is reporting that, “The Angels were among a half-dozen teams to send scouts to the Dominican Republic last week to watch Adeiny Hechevarria work out, according to a league source.” Saxon also said that the bidding could reach up to eight figures.

Earlier today, MLBFP compared two other Cuban SS’s, Yadil Mujica and Jose Iglesias, who were ranked ninth and eleventh, respectively, by Cubano for Cuban Ball Players. Hechevarria, by comparison, is ranked seventh. The following is Cubano’s scouting report on the young shortstop:

In my opinion, Adeiny Hechavarria was the best shortstop prospect in Cuba before he left. Certainly, I was not alone…Cuban coaches thought along these lines when Adeiny was named the starting short stop for the Cuban Junior Team in the 2007 World Junior Championship in Canada. Jose Iglesias had to play second base for that team.

He covers a lot of ground, has amazing quickness, great hands and his footwork is excellent. Iglesias had a higher batting average in Cuba, but Hechevarria hit for more power and had a higher fielding average.

Hechevarria likes to hit behind the runners. During last season, he hit 50 times toward right field. He also hit 38 times to left field and 32 to center field.

Adeiny should land a more lucrative contract than Jose Iglesias, who signed a $8.2 million contract with Boston.

Major League teams are bidding on this kid based on pure projection, as his offensive numbers are not impressive. Nevertheless, we must keep in mind that he was only a teenager during his first three professional seasons in Cuba. Hechevarria is a player to stash away in deep dynasty and keeper leagues, but he will not have an impact in 2010. In fact, it could be a while before he’s ready to contribute for your fantasy team. Jorge Arangure today tweetedthat Adeiny has not yet been unblocked, so it could be weeks or months before he signs anywhere. When he makes it to the majors, it will most likely be more for his defense than his bat, initially.

More Cuban Free Agents: Scouting Yadil Mujica (SS) and Leslie Anderson (1B/OF)

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Is it me, or does it seem as if Cuban players are becoming a major ingredient of the MLB melting pot? This offseason has already brought us Aroldis Chapman, Noel Arguelles, and soon, Jose Julio Ruiz. Now comes word that shortstop Yadil Mujica and first baseman/outfielder Leslie Anderson are now auditioning for MLB teams.

According to Cubano from Cuban Ball Players, Mujica, who hits left-handed and thought to be around 25 or 26 years-old, had private tryouts with the Seattle Mariners. Notably, GM Jack Zduriencik was present. Mujíca was one of the top young shortstops in Cuba and was in line to inherit the starting shortstop position for Cuba’s top national team. Cubano has him ranked as the 9th best MLB prospect from Cuba, notably ranked two spots ahead of Boston Red Sox shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias, who garnered rave reviews after a respectable showing in the Arizona Fall League. Mujica’s higher rank is most likely due to his more advanced hitting skills, although Iglesias is a superior defender and will be only 20-years-old when he opens the season in Double-A. Cubano’s scouts Mujica as a contact hitter that uses the entire field, hits well against lefties, and could provide speed to a lineup, although his stolen base totals have been down. He has a very good range, a plus arm, and an ideal, long body-type to play shortstop. Unfortunately, his defense dropped in his last season in Cuba. MLBFP readers know we don’t normally care how a guy fields so long as he can rake, but a guy with a light bat rarely gets to the bigs if he can’t field his position at a high level. For this very reason, I advise you to pass on this potential prospect, as I’m not sure what kind of impact he’ll have this season.

Conversely, Leslie Anderson is a player you should be keeping tabs on. While not as highly touted as Jose Julio Ruiz (Cubano has Anderson ranked 5th, two spots below Ruiz), he is a very versatile player. Listed at 6’1” and just over 200-pounds, this 28-year-old is left-handed and was in the prime of his career when he left Cuba. During the 2008-2009 season, he hit .381 (.379 v. LHP and .382 v. RHP) with a .490 OBP and .572 SLG. Cubano points out that while Anderson is a Gold Glove caliber first baseman, he has the skills to play anywhere in the outfield, including centerfield. This type of versatility, along with his penchant to work the count and take a lot of pitches, will make him a nice late addition for a big league club. Because of his age, Anderson won’t sign with a club that’s not interested in using him on the big league roster. Cubano told me that, like Alexei Ramirez was with the White Sox, he’s ready to contribute right away, but needs a team to give him the same opportunity Ramirez got in 2008. Anderson’s ability to play 1B and CF reminds me of Darren Erstad. Interestingly, I can see his upside being comparable to Erstads’ 2004 statistics, but with a league average slugging percentage, which equals out to a .290-.300 hitter with a .350 OBP and a .420 SLG. Given regular ABs, this guy can potentially help your fantasy squad. Of course, as with all free agents, where he signs could make or break Anderson’s bid to break into the Major Leagues.

Cuban Free Agent Jose Julio Ruiz (1B/OF) Works Out for Texas Rangers

by Managing Editor, Stephen Sheridan

Late last month, I introduced you to first baseman Jose Julio Ruiz, who will most certainly see time this year on a major league roster, likely as part of a 1B/DH platoon. Cubano, my main man at the Cuban Ball Players blog, is reporting that Ruiz performed very well in a private workout for the Texas Rangers, recently. According to Cubano, “Ruiz spent two days trying out in front of the top Rangers decision makers and senior scouts, including Rangers GM Jon Daniels and Manager Ron Washington.”

In looking over the Rangers depth chart, a Jose Julio Ruiz signing would reveal a lot about what Jon Daniels thinks about his club’s future. First, it would suggest that Chris Davis is not going to be a long-term fixture on this team, likely due to his deplorable hitting against southpaws. Second, it would be a sign that although Texas is willing to give Vladimir Guerrero a chance to regain his former glory in their Bandbox at Arlington (third highest in MLB Park Factor in 2009), they’re not exactly brimming with confidence that Vlad can stay healthy. Finally, it would indicate that the club isn’t about to rush Justin Smoak to the majors.

While Ruiz’s power is in question, 15 to 20 homers is reachable in Arlington, making him a more interesting option than if he were to play in a ballpark that suppresses home runs, such as in Detroit or Seattle. That said, I have to stick with my guns and advise y’all to draft him as a reserve.

Regardless of where or when Ruiz signs, you know I’ll be back with another post to break it all down for you.

Hisanori Takahashi (SP, Free Agent, Japan) Linked to Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Giants

Back in November, we introduced you to Hisanori Takahashi, a 34-year-old, Japanese lefty trying to break into MLB after spending his entire 10-year career with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. On January 28, Rotoworld reported the following:

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports that the Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Giants are among the teams with interest in Japanese left-hander Hisanori Takahashi.

MLBFP’s Japanese Baseball correspondent, Brandon Siefken of Japan Baseball News, just emailed me some insider information as to why Takahashi has yet to sign. The word is that he is insisting on being a starter. Most MLB scouts, Siefken included, do not think he is worthy of starting pitcher money.

Who else thinks that the team that signs Takahashi will be “promising” a shot at the rotation?

Closer Look: Scouting Jose Julio Ruiz (1B, Free Agent, Cuba)

Time to dig a little deeper on Jose Julio Ruiz. Again, we must thank our Cuban Baseball expert, Cubano from the Cuban Ball Players blog.

José Julio has held tryouts with the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants among other interested teams.

In a addition to that tidbit, Cubano offers some comparable statistics that pit Ruiz against some of the more prominent sluggers in Cuban Baseball. The one that caught my eye was Angels first baseman, Kendry Morales.

During Kendry’s three seasons in Cuba, his homerun frequency 23.5, meaning he hit a homerun every 23 to 24 at-bats. When you compare that to what Jose Julio Ruiz did in five seasons (40 AB/HR), I can infer that Morales has more power than Ruiz. In fact, in 2009, Morales hit a homerun once in every 20.5 at-bats for the Halos. Ruiz, at 26-years-old, is coming into Major League Baseball a more polished player than his countryman, but he doesn’t seem to have the same penchant for hitting the long ball. 

Again, I must note that until this guy signs with a team, it will be difficult to predict his impact for 2010. In the meantime, here’s a list of 1B with homerun frequencies (based on 2009 stats) that you might compare to Jose Julio Ruiz: Nick Johnson (57.1); James Loney (44.3); Jorge Cantu (36.6); and Todd Helton (36.3). Certainly, if Ruiz can hit for average or get on base like Helton or Johnson, skills which he did show in Cuba, he’s certainly worth tracking throughout the spring.

Look, I have little doubt that this guy is going to see regular playing time for a big league club during 2010, but I’m not convinced - yet - that Jose Julio Ruiz is more than a supporting player for your fantasy squad. Spring Training is going to be crucial for him.

Jose Julio Ruiz (1B, Free Agent, Cuba) Becomes a Free Agent - Scouting Report

Jorge Arangure, Senior Writer for ESPN The Magazine, tweeted today (@jorgearangure) that Jose Julio Ruiz has been declared as an unblocked national of Cuba by the United States Department of the Treasury and eligible to sign with a Major League club. Why should you care, you ask? Because this guy is going to contribute immediately for the team that signs him.

When it comes to getting the real skinny on prospects from Cuba, MLBFP goes right to our friend, Cubano, the man behind the Cuban Ball Players blog:

Jose Julio is 26-years-old and has been listed as 6'2” and 194 pounds.

During this last season Ruíz was hitting .305/.408/.467 after 52 games. Then, he vanished from Cuba until he appeared in Miami. The Cuban season consists of 90 games only. Jose Julio needs to improve his average against lefties which was .214 during this last season. He did very well against righties (.338). He connected 48 times to LF, 47 times to CF and 83 times to RF.

In the 47 Cuban season, Jose Julio Ruíz finished 23rd in average, hitting .341 with 21 doubles, 11 HR and 69 RBI. He walked 44 times against 49 strikeouts. Ruiz finished first in AB with 429, 3rd in Runs with 83, first in hits with 126, and 8th in total bases with 182. Despite being a first baseman, Jose Julio finished first in stolen bases with 32.

Cubano believes that Ruiz would of been the best first baseman on the market before free agency began and suggests the White Sox may be a top suitor.  We couldn’t agree more. Chicago has an impressive recent history in signing players from Cuba, such as Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo. Further, with Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome gone, the Chi-Sox are currently counting on Paul Konerko and Andruw Jones as their 1B and DH, respectfully. Jose Julio Ruiz, who hits from the left side, would compliment those two right-handed sluggers perfectly.

It’s impossible to know how this guy’s game is going to translate stateside, but fantasy baseball players should take notice. On the surface, Jose Julio Ruiz is a player you’d have to consider before drafting a players such as Billy Butler, Derek Lee, or Adam LaRoche. Of course, much will depend on where he signs.

Keep it here for the latest on this must-watch rookie free-agent!

Cuban Phenom Aroldis Chapman (SP) Signs With Cincinnati Reds

Apparently, there was a mystery contestant in the race to procure the talents of 22-year-old Aroldis Chapman. First reported by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports, the Cincinnati Reds, normally budget conscious, come out of nowhere and sign the Cuban flamethrower to a contract worth a guaranteed $25 million over 5 years, with an option for a 6th year that could take the deal to $30 million.

Chapman, rated as our #13 MLB Fantasy Prospect, saw the bidding get hot and heavy over the last month or so. “The bidding increased from an initial $15.5 million offer from the Boston Red Sox in early December,” according to Passan, “to the highest reported proposal of $23 million from Toronto a few days ago.” Passan expects the Reds to decline the 2011 options they have on Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, freeing up an estimated $20 million, nearly two-thirds of Chapman’s price tag.

I was convinced that the Yankees would come away with this prized prospect, whose fastball touches 100-mph on the gun. Those of you who have read my previous post on Chapman know I also thought he’d end up banking significantly more than the $32 million his fellow countryman, Jose Contreras, received in 2003. Turns out that Major League Baseball isn’t exactly recession proof, after all.

Chapman is the icing on the cake for Cincy, already developing a deep stable of young, tantalizingly talented starters with Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Edinson Volquez, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Of course, much has to go right for this bunch before we start comparing them to the Atlanta Braves rotations of the 1990’s. Another “Generation K” isn’t out of the question, either. Plus, we don’t yet know if Ardolis Chapman is a starter, a closer, or even a serviceable batting practice pitcher. What we can say with certainty that this kid is going to get a chance to earn his multi-million dollar contract pretty fast, as there will be pressure to bring him along quickly.

Yours truly has been all over Chapman since last summer and MLBFP will continue to be the place to find the latest on this prospect, who easily has most exciting arm to watch come spring.

Scouting Report: Ryota Igarashi (RP, New York Mets)

Over the past few days, there have been numerous reports that the Mets were close to signing reliever Ryota Igarashi from Japan. Not exactly the type of big-name player New York fans are used to bringing in, right? But hey, at least they didn’t trade Cliff Lee to the Mariners for prospects that might help out in 2012! But I digress…Rhett Bollinger at MLB.com reported today that the Metropolitans finally put the finishing touches on Igarashi’s deal:

The club announced Thursday it had signed the 30-year-old right-handed reliever from Japan to a two-year contract and thereby addressed one of its primary needs. Igarashi pitched 11 seasons with the Yakult Swallows of the Japanese Central League, serving as a reliever exclusively in 507 games.

The deal is reportedly worth $3 million, with Igarashi getting $1.25 million next season and $1.75 million in 2011. He can earn an additional $500,000 in performance bonuses over two years

"We've had an interest in Ryota for two years," Mets general manager Omar Minaya said in a statement Thursday. "He's got a power arm and an outstanding split-finger [fastball]."

Wow! Two years is a long time to pine for a middle relief pitcher, Omar. Is Ryota worth the wait? To find out, we checked in with our go-to Japanese baseball expert, Brandon Siefken from Japan Baseball News:

I know off hand from my MLB scouting sources that he was demanding money that was bordering insane, and therefore was only available for a big market team with deep pockets.

Ryota Igarashi is a reliever who runs very hot and very cold. He’ll have an amazing scoreless inning streak and then go on an ugly skid. He thinks he is better than he really is…I do not believe he is ready for MLB, physically or mentally.

I am not high on Ryota. Not a starter, he’ll fill a relief role for the Mets. MLB scouts that I have shared opinions with like him more than I do, feeling in the right situation, he can be a solid innings eater in middle relief.

Last year, in 53.2 innings pitched, his ERA was a beefy 3.19, which is a red flag to me. Ryota only struck out 44 batters for a K/9 of only 7.39, which seems low for a reliever. He does not dominate, despite his reputation as a dominator. I can see some ugly innings in America on the horizon.

Brandon might seem a little harsh in his evaluation of Igarashi, but the point he is driving home here is that this latest Japanese import did not exactly set the world on fire across the Pacific. Although known to possess a power-arm, Ryota’s stats were just average compared to the best relievers in his league.

In my opinion, the salary figures here tell the story. This guy might have been demanding big money, but he’s only getting average money to be a reliever in The Big Apple. According to The Biz of Baseball, National League relievers made a little over $1.6 million on average in 2009. As y’all can see, the Mets aren’t taking a huge financial risk, here. Fantasy-speaking, Ryota was signed as potential set-up guy and is not in line for saves. Until we see how he reacts under the pressure of the New York spotlight, it’s impossible to know if his ERA can help you. After reading Siefken’s scouting report, I’m expecting a Chad Durbin-like pitcher. At the most, Igarashi is a guy to keep tabs on after your draft.