MLB Fantasy Prospects

2010 MLBFP Divisional Series: Top 10 American League West Fantasy Prospects

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

As you know, all good things must come to an end, so it’s time to wrap-up my Top 10 Fantasy Prospects by Division Series. It’s been quite the journey, covering everyone from Jason Heyward to Jay Jackson, and giving dynasty league owners enough material to last for several seasons. For you impatient prospect gurus, our final division, the American League West, features some of the game’s most major league-ready prospects.

The Top 10

1) Neftali Feliz (SP/RP, Texas Rangers)  ETA: 2010

Acquired from the Braves as part of the Mark Teixeira trade in 2007, Feliz has some of the highest upside of any prospect in baseball. Feliz has an absolutely electric arm, and his tailing, 98 mph fastball may already be on the short list of best heaters in the game. In terms of his secondary offerings, he still needs to develop command and consistency with his breaking pitch and changeup. Called up to the majors late last season as a reliever, Feliz dominated the American League, going 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 20 relief appearances. If Feliz finishes games, he has the makings of a Joe Nathan-type shutdown closer, capable of saving upwards of 40 games a year with a sub-2.00 ERA, making him a Top 60 fantasy player. Feliz has always posted great strikeout numbers, as he averaged a 10.6 K/9 ratio in his four seasons in the minors, and this trend is almost certain to continue in the bigs. If he masters his command and develops an dependable secondary arsenal, the sky is the limit for Feliz. In fact, as a starter, he has Pedro Martinez-like upside. For now, though, my crystal ball tells me Feliz turns into reliever, and that he will be closing games in Texas by June. Feliz is a good pick in all leagues, but be careful not to overdraft him just because he’s a sexy pick.

2) Justin Smoak (1B, Texas Rangers)  ETA: Mid-2010

A future first round fantasy pick, Smoak has all the makings of an elite, four-category fantasy producer. Smoak soared through the Rangers’ minor league system and reached Triple-A in just his second professional season. A true switch hitter, with serious power from both sides, Smoak is not just a hacker, as he has compiled a .292 BA and .403 OBP in the minors as well. Smoak is frequently compared to Mark Teixeira, and while there are some similarities, Smoak’s smoother swing but slightly inferior raw power reminds me more of Chipper Jones. In his prime, lines of .300-30-100 are well within reach for Smoak, which will make him a Top Five fantasy first baseman. Chris Davis currently blocks Smoak at first base, but the switch-hitting slugger is too good of a hitter to keep in the minors for long. Look for Smoak to get the call to the majors in June or July, and start hitting right away. He will be long gone in dynasty leagues, and isn’t worth reaching for in shallow redraft mixed leagues, but in deep mixed leagues or AL-only leagues, Smoak isn’t a bad late-round flier if you can afford the roster spot. There’s a bevy of good young first baseman in the minors right now, but Smoak is the best of the bunch.

3) Dustin Ackley (2B/OF, Seattle Mariners)  ETA: Mid-2011

The second overall pick in the 2009 draft, the Mariners were more than happy to select Ackley as their consolation prize to the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes. Ackley has an extraordinarily advanced bat for someone who has just been drafted, which is why I have aggressively projected him to be major league-ready after only a season and a half in the minors. A potential five-category producer, the only grey area in Ackley’s game is his power, as his ceiling is probably 25 homerun power. Notably, some scouts believe he may be restricted to the 10-15 homerun range. What is not in dispute is that Ackley has the hitting skills to hit .320 in the majors, and has enough speed to steal 20-40 bases a year. Ackley’s ultimate fantasy value is hard to project without knowing where he lands on the diamond. If he’s an outfielder, or second baseman in the ideal fantasy world, he could be a Top 30 fantasy player, with an ultimate Derek Jeter-like ceiling of hitting .320-20-70 with 30 stolen bases. If Ackley doesn’t develop power or has to move to first base (his college position), his value would obviously diminish. He should be owned in all dynasty leagues, and will begin to make fantasy contributions early next season.

4) Martin Perez (SP, Texas Rangers)  ETA: 2011

Perez has the highest upside of any pitcher in the division – even greater than Feliz – and is one of the Top Five pitching prospects in baseball. Perez will be just 19-years-old this season, and if all goes well, he should finish the year in Triple-A. Armed with an above average fastball, a devastating curveball, and a good changeup, Perez has the necessary weapons to shut down hitters at any level. Perez struggled in a brief stint at Double-A last season, but went 5-5 with a 2.31 ERA and 105 Ks in only 94 IP in Single-A. A potential Top Three fantasy pitcher, Perez often draws comparisons to fellow Venezuelan southpaw Johan Santana, and while I generally try to stay away from consensus comparisons, it’s a fair projection based on Perez’s upside. I expect Perez to breeze through Double-A and receive a promotion to Triple-A by July, which would put him on track for a chance to crack the Rangers’ rotation in 2011. Perez is not a bad candidate to be the No. 1 fantasy prospect in all of baseball at this time next year; his dynasty league owners should hold on to him at all costs.

5) Chris Carter (1B/OF, Oakland Athletics)  ETA: Mid-2010

One of the best power hitters in the minors, Carter has racked up 118 homeruns in his 5 years as a professional, including totals of 25, 39, and 28 over the past 3 seasons. Carter is very limited defensively, and listing him as an outfield option is probably too generous. Notably, however, shouldn’t become a full-time DH for a few years, giving him increased fantasy value in the meantime. Carter hit a career-high .337 in Double-A last season, and while I do believe his new emphasis on pitch selection will pay some dividends, fantasy owners should expect batting averages more along the lines of .270-280 for Carter in the majors. Carter has sweet upside for a fantasy first baseman. Adrian Gonzalez-like number (.275-35-90) are well within his reach when he hits his prime. For now, Carter is blocked by several “Quad-A” players, such as Daric Barton and Jake Fox, but he will likely force himself into the lineup by July. Carter could use another half-season of seasoning in Triple-A, so he might not be worth grabbing in redraft leagues just yet. If he does somehow win a starting job out of spring training, however, he;s a solid late-round flier for any owner looking for a quick power fix, and could hit 15 bombs if given 300 ABs.

6) Michael Taylor (OF, Oakland Athletics)  ETA: Mid-2010

A big corner outfielder, with solid tools across the board, Taylor is one of the more underrated prospects in baseball. Toronto, which received Taylor from the Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade, then sent the outfielder to Oakland for 1B/3B prospect Brett Wallace It’s somewhat puzzling why Toronto made this move as Taylor was arguably the third-best outfielder in their organization for the brief time he was in the fold. Regardless, Taylor now faces a similar quandary as fellow prospect Chris Carter, in that he is not blocked by any one good player, but rather by a plethora of below-average ones. If Taylor received 500 ABs in 2010, he would be a borderline fifth fantasy outfielder, capable of hitting .280-15-70 with 10-plus stolen bases as well. Unfortunately, I don’t see the A’s allowing Taylor to receive any significant ABs until July or August, meaning he may be a fantasy non-factor for much of 2010. In his prime, I like Taylor to be a better-hitting Hunter Pence-type outfielder, capable of putting up lines of .300-20-80 with 15 swipes. For now, leave Taylor undrafted in redraft leagues, but see if you can trade for him in dynasty leagues and expect him to produce enough in 2011 to be a solid third fantasy outfielder.

7) Hank Conger (C, Los Angeles Angels)  ETA: 2011

One of the better catching prospects in baseball, Conger finally stayed healthy in 2009 and put up some impressive numbers. As a 21-year-old in Double-A, Conger hit .295-11-68 with a .369 OBP in 458 ABs, restoring his status as an elite prospect. Conger is a switch-hitter with solid power from both sides of the plate, although he hits for a slightly better average from the right and with more pop from the left. Conger faces some obstacles that may delay his big league ETA. He’s blocked by two good major league catchers in Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis, and is only adequate defensively, which wouldn’t hold him back in many organizations, but may in one run by Mike Scioscia. Still, Conger’s upside is a Top Seven fantasy catcher, capable of hitting .290-20-80, similar to the modern day Jorge Posada. Overshadowed by other catching prospects, such as Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, and Derek Norris, there’s a chance Conger may be available in dynasty leagues. If he is, Conger is a nice grab, as he’s one of the five best catching prospects in the minors.

8) Michael Saunders (OF, Seattle Mariners)  ETA: 2010

Saunders would be higher on this list, but the Mariners’ offseason moves seem to indicate they don’t think he’s ready for regular major league ABs quite yet. After the Mariners acquired Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes, and resigned Ken Griffey Jr., the odds of Saunders getting 300-plus ABs this year are pretty slim. An all-around average offensive player, Saunders would have been a nice sleeper as a fifth fantasy outfielder this year, capable of hitting .280-15-80 with five stolen bases, if he was given 400 ABs. He will never be a huge contributor to any one fantasy category, but profiles as a Conor Jackson-type solid utility player, capable of boosting team batting average and runs while providing some power and speed. Saunders is still worth drafting in AL-only leagues, but has lost most of his value in redraft leagues. Significantly, Bradley is injury-prone and Byrnes hasn’t been productive since 2007, thus owners should still keep their eyes on Saunders this season. He’s a nice waiver wire pickup if he starts getting regular ABs.

9) Tanner Scheppers (SP, Texas Rangers)  ETA: mid-2011

Although Scheppers was drafted just this past year, his great fastball, filthy curveball, and developing changeup make him nearly major league-ready. If Texas converts him to a reliever, it’s not out of the question that Scheppers could reach the majors by the end of 2010, and fare pretty similarly to how Nefatli Feliz did in the bullpen in 2009. In this role, Scheppers could develop into a Joakim Soria-like Top 10 fantasy closer. If they allow Scheppers to take his time and develop as a starter, he has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and his arsenal of pitches reminds me a lot of Yovani Gallardo, which would make him a solid No.2 fantasy starter. My instincts tell me that Scheppers’ future is directly linked with Feliz’s. If Feliz can start, Texas will likely groom Scheppers to be their closer of the future. If Feliz becomes the Rangers’ fireman, than Scheppers will likely be allowed to start. Either way, dynasty owners should be all over Scheppers. He does have some significant injury history, but his upside is too great to ignore.

10) Grant Green (SS, Oakland Athletics)  ETA: 2012

The 13th overall pick in the 2009 draft, Green’s prospect star as diminished a little bit, as he was once the favorite to be the first position player taken in last year’s draft. A fast, athletic shortstop with a line-drive swing, Green doesn’t have tremendous power potential, but could contribute solidly in every other fantasy category, especially for a middle infielder. Some scouts question whether Green can stay at shortstop. Of course, if he has to move to third base or the outfield, his fantasy value would take a tremendous hit. The A’s believe Green will grow into some power, and if he does, he could be an elite fantasy shortstop. For now, however, I see a little Edgar Renteria in Green. In the future, look for .290 BA/10 HRs/75 RBIs/20 SBs lines from Green; Top 10 fantasy shortstop material. Green should move fairly quickly, and given that only Cliff Pennington blocks him from major league ABs, he could push for time as early as July 2011.

The Next Five

11) Mike Trout (OF, Los Angeles Angels)  ETA: 2013

One of my favorite sleeper prospects, the best thing Trout can do for fantasy owners is stop growing. The favorite to be Torii Hunter’s heir in center field, Trout has five-category fantasy potential and plus speed, but may lose some of that ability if he keeps filling out. As of right now though, Trout compares favorably to Johnny Damon, and is someone I highly recommend to dynasty league owners looking for a prospect bargain.

12) Peter Bourjos (OF, Los Angeles Angels)  ETA: 2011

Bourjos faces somewhat of a conundrum, as he has Hunter in front of him and Trout behind him, threatening his major league playing time. Bourjos’ defensive ability means he’s a better major league prospect than fantasy one, but he still has plus-speed, and could wind up as a poor man’s Jacoby Ellsbury, hitting .280 with 40-plus stolen bases.

13) Trevor Reckling (SP, Los Angeles Angels)  ETA: 2011

Reckling faces an uphill battle to be a starter, as he needs a third pitch and better command, but his fastball and disgusting slurve give him some serious potential. Rushed in 2009, the Angels will likely hold Reckling back a bit in 2010 to give him time to reach his Randy Wolf-like potential as a No .3 innings eater and No. 5 fantasy starter.

14) Max Stassi (C, Oakland Athletics)  ETA: 2013

Taken in the third round of the 2009 draft, Stassi was a first-round talent but fell do to signability issues. He’s a few seasons away, but has the ability to be a Top 10 fantasy catcher in the Jason Varitek mold, capable of providing stellar defense, while hitting .280-20-80 per season in his prime. Dynasty owners looking for a catcher may want to consider taking Stassi before his name value catches up with his potential.

15) Adam Moore (C, Seattle Mariners)  ETA: 2010

Moore isn’t a terrific prospect, but is the favorite to be Seattle’s starting catcher in 2010. If given 450 ABs, he’s capable of posting Kelly Shoppach-like numbers -- .270-15-60. Sadly, that makes Moore a borderline starter in AL-only leagues, as he should outhit Jason Kendall, Lou Marson, and possibly John Buck.

Toronto Blue Jays Scouting Jose Julio Ruiz (1B/OF, Free Agent, Cuba); Other Cuban Free Agents Still Waiting For A Call

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Yesterday, Morgan Campbell of the Toronto Star provided a nice update on a few Cuban free agents that have been making the rounds. In particular, he reported that Blue Jays’ general manager Alex Anthopoulos was present for a private workout of Jose Julio Ruiz, who has also been linked to the Texas Rangers.  My amigo Cubano, from Cuban Ball Players, initially broke the news of the tryout and predicted that it “…will be probably the last workout session for José Julio Ruiz before deciding which team to play for.”

Campbell further reports that Leslie Anderson, who I’ve covered in the past, is practicing with a pro team in Mexico while awaiting a Major League contract and Yuniesky Maya remains unsigned despite rumors that he’s close to signing with the Red Sox. Listed as 28-years-old, there hasn’t been much hype surrounding this guy. Cubano ranks Maya as his fourth best Cuban MLB prospect, but I believe his age has been a detriment to his signing a big league contract.

Hey Cubano, could you possibly leave us a comment as to why your “cuarto mejor prospecto” has yet to find a team?

Today, Campbell wrote a feature article focusing on the recent influx of Cubans trying to break into the MLB. In an excellent piece of reporting, he suggests that Dayan Viciedo’s contract with the White Sox may have been the watershed moment that caused so many Cuban players to defect:

As years passed, the slow leak of top talent continued – Orlando and Livan Hernandez, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras all left one by one. But none of those departures inspired a surge like the one that has occurred over the last 18 months.

[…]three players' departures – Angels star Kendry Morales, Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar and White Sox prospect Dayan Viciedo – changed players' minds about leaving Cuba.

Neither Morales nor Escobar was a full-time starter in Cuba, but each has excelled in the majors[…]eyes across the island opened wide when Viciedo signed with the White Sox.

Touted as Cuba's next great shortstop, Viciedo entered the National Series as a 15-year-old in 2005, and hit 14 home runs the next year. From there[…]his production declined, yet after defecting in 2008 he still signed a four-year, $10-million (all figures U.S.) deal with Chicago.

"Viciedo had a very significant impact on the thinking of Cuban players[…]They thought, `If he can get $10 million, then what am I worth?"

Very interesting stuff there. Cuban veterans such as Anderson, Maya, and Ruiz are learning an important lesson about MLB executives – it’s all about potential. General managers and scouts don’t care about past accolades in a league where they have little access, control, nor influence. These clubs want to invest in skills they can develop within their own organization, with coaches they trust. Whether it be with the Blue Jays, the Rangers, or some other team, my sense is that Ruiz will sign first, but not for the dinero he envisioned when he started this journey.

Cuban Free Agent Jose Julio Ruiz (1B/OF) Works Out for Texas Rangers

by Managing Editor, Stephen Sheridan

Late last month, I introduced you to first baseman Jose Julio Ruiz, who will most certainly see time this year on a major league roster, likely as part of a 1B/DH platoon. Cubano, my main man at the Cuban Ball Players blog, is reporting that Ruiz performed very well in a private workout for the Texas Rangers, recently. According to Cubano, “Ruiz spent two days trying out in front of the top Rangers decision makers and senior scouts, including Rangers GM Jon Daniels and Manager Ron Washington.”

In looking over the Rangers depth chart, a Jose Julio Ruiz signing would reveal a lot about what Jon Daniels thinks about his club’s future. First, it would suggest that Chris Davis is not going to be a long-term fixture on this team, likely due to his deplorable hitting against southpaws. Second, it would be a sign that although Texas is willing to give Vladimir Guerrero a chance to regain his former glory in their Bandbox at Arlington (third highest in MLB Park Factor in 2009), they’re not exactly brimming with confidence that Vlad can stay healthy. Finally, it would indicate that the club isn’t about to rush Justin Smoak to the majors.

While Ruiz’s power is in question, 15 to 20 homers is reachable in Arlington, making him a more interesting option than if he were to play in a ballpark that suppresses home runs, such as in Detroit or Seattle. That said, I have to stick with my guns and advise y’all to draft him as a reserve.

Regardless of where or when Ruiz signs, you know I’ll be back with another post to break it all down for you.

#6 MLB Fantasy Prospect - Justin Smoak (1B, Texas Rangers) - Scouting Report

I still can’t believe that Justin Smoak and Matt Wieters were in the same high school lineup. Seriously, you know there’s a former high school pitcher out there who is still suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder as a result of the damage the Smoak/Wieters duo laid on him. Reach out to us at MLBFP if you’re that pitcher, we would love to relive some of your experiences against them – as a form of “therapy,” of course.

Justin Smoak was No. 11 on my Top 200 Fantasy Prospects preseason list in 2009. I predicted he would be a fantasy stud within four years. Despite some of his struggles last year, I am firmly sticking to my original prediction.

Smoak posted the following stats across three levels of the minor leagues in 2009 (Rookie, Double-A, and Triple-A): .290 BA/12 HRs/.410 OBP/.443 SLG. The 6-4, 220-pound first baseman displayed his tremendous plate patience throughout the season – with a 14.0-plus% walk rate at every level. Notably, Smoak was stellar at Double-A (.328 BA/.930 OPS), but struggled at Triple-A (.244 BA/.723 OPS).

Just like Madison Bumgarner, Smoak had his fair share of critics this offseason. Smoak didn’t produce the type of power numbers many expected last year in the minors. Specifically, along with only smacking 12 HRs, and having a mere .443 SLG, Smoak’s ISOs sat at .153 at Double-A and a measly .117 at Triple-A. In addition, despite the fact he’s a switch-hitter, Smoak struggled against lefties, hitting only .214, with 3 HRs, and a .626 OPS. The concerns regarding Smoak’s Triple-A numbers, power, and ability to hit southpaws are certainly valid based on his production from last year.

Am I worried about his long-term fantasy future? Nope. As far as his performance at Triple-A, let’s give him a break, it was a 197 AB sample size. Smoak made it quite clear this offseason that he can still rake by winning the MVP award at the 2009 Baseball World Cup, hitting .291 with nine bombs. I am confident he will carry that momentum into the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) in 2010.

His power? C’mon, this guy hit a record 62 home runs at the University of South Carolina. The pop will come at advanced levels as he refines his swing. Most importantly, Smoak needs to keep his hands back just a tad longer as he releases his massive swing. This slight adjustment will produce more of those fanta-sexy bombs we all cherish. Smoak might not hit 40-plus HRs per year on a regular basis, but 30-35 HRs per season is almost a certainty once he reaches his prime.

Finally, let’s not overreact to the stats against lefties. Smoak hit .337 against lefties at South Carolina and .317 against lefties in his first season of pro ball (2008). You can’t judge a fantasy prospect book by one season’s worth of numbers. Further, patience is one of the greatest fantasy virtues. Do I need to spit anymore tiresome clichés to get my point across?

Smoak will receive a big league promotion after the All-Star break. Do you really believe Vladimir Guerrero will stay healthy all season AND Chris Davis will produce for a full season. A spot will open in the Rangers’ lineup and Smoak will grab it. Take a late risk on him in deeper redraft leagues or follow him closely on the waiver wire. In keeper leagues, he should already be long gone in existing leagues, and will be expensive in new leagues. That said, he’s worth the jacked-up price whether you have to acquire him via trade or through the draft.

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Average Draft Position Analysis - 2010 Impact Rookies

Contributed by Michael Rathburn, blogging at Around the Cooler

Finding sleepers – especially impact rookies – is a fantasy baseball owners’ holy grail. With so much information out there these days, it is harder and harder to find a gem. Also, with teams forced to deal with salary constraints, players are being rushed to the majors a lot faster and their development can take a hit.

This is an analysis of the top eligible hitters for the American League/National League Rookie of the Year (“ROY”) award in 2010, along with an examination of their projected role and recommendations on whether you should draft them at their Average Draft Position (“ADP”) or pass on them. ROY eligibility is less than 130 at bats/50 innings pitched/45 days of service time. There were a few guys who just barely missed this list – Alcides Escobar, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, and Daniel Bard.

ADP’s are courtesy of Mock Draft Central with a sample size of 335 drafts from Jan 13 – Jan 29, 2010.

You can find the same ADP analysis for rookie pitchers at my site – Around the Cooler

Jason Heyward OF – Atlanta Braves

ADP: 317  Earliest: 184  Drafted: 19%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #1

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A/Starting RF in ATL

Analysis: If the 2007 draft were held today, Heyward would be the #1 pick – hands down. He has gone through the Atlanta minors like a hot knife through butter, getting better with each level. The temptation is there to slow him down and not rush him, but the talent just overcomes. His rise is very similar to Jay Bruce a couple years ago. The only knock on Heyward has been the nagging injuries, namely the hammy and bruised heel he suffered in the Arizona Fall League.

I’d prefer to see Heyward get those 200-300 at-bats in Triple-A, then come up June/July. Once he comes up, he won’t go back down. There is a little bit of a log-jam in that Matt Diaz did play well in 2009, but that won’t stop Atlanta from bringing up their most exciting hitting prospect since Andruw Jones.

I think the 317 ADP is right on with Heyward in comparing other OFs at the same spot. The key is watching the spring training battle with Diaz. If Heyward wins the spot, then you can project 450 ABs and the numbers should increase by 25%.

Projection: 350 ABs/15 HRs/50 RBIs/.280/.350/.450

Desmond Jennings OF – Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 266  Drafted: 1.8%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #5

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A

Analysis: In 2009, Jennings vaulted himself back into the upper echelon of prospects and lived up to the comparison of a Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton clone.

Jennings’ 2008 season was marred with injuries and question marks started to surface. Jennings put all those question marks to bed with a monster 2009 – 11 HRs/92 RBIs/.320 AVG/52 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A. Jennings probably needs the typical 300-400 at-bats in Triple-A, but a great sign for Jennings is the K/BB ratio. It’s almost 1:1. We’re not talking Cameron Maybin here; think Andrew McCutchen but slightly better. There’s certainly ADP value surrounding Jennings.

I can see the Rays bringing Jennings to the bigs on June 1. Jennings will be most valuable in AL-only league formats. He will at least become a great fourth OF after June 1.

Projection: 400 ABs/10 HRs/65 RBIs/25 SBs

Carlos Santana C – Cleveland Indians

ADP: 326  Earliest: 220  Drafted: 9.3%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #9

Opening Day Assignment: Starting C in Triple-A; with an outside shot to win the starting job in CLE

Analysis: Santana will always be noted for the trade in which the Indians sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The Dodgers already had Russell Martin and Blake has been huge for them. But the Indians got a Top 10 prospect and one of the top two catchers in the minor leagues. The path to the majors isn’t blocked for Santana, but 2 months worth of steady Triple-A pitching, to start the season, will do nothing but help his growth.

Just like Jennings, the thing I love about Santana is the K:BB ratio of 1:1.

There’s an outside shot the Indians will go with Santana on the Opening Day roster, but I doubt it. If you can afford to hold out on a catcher for 2 months, great, if not then you still have a guy who can play UTIL once he comes up. Or you can deal your starting C. Either way these numbers project a Top 15 catcher in mixed leagues and Top 10 in AL only leagues.

Projection: 350 ABs/10 HRs/55 RBIs/.265 AVG/.340 OBP/.450 SLG

 

Justin Smoak 1B – Texas Rangers

ADP: 231 (AL Only)  Drafted: 91.7%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #10

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B at Triple-A

Analysis: Smoak was the 11th pick in the 1st round by the Rangers in 2008. Comps to Mark Teixeira are inevitable. Smoak put up monster numbers at South Carolina but the power hasn’t translated to the minor leagues – as of yet. Also, Smoak only hit .244 at Triple-A last year in 200 at bats, so more seasoning is definitely needed.

The Rangers have a log-jam at 1B/DH right now with Chris Davis and Vladimir Guerrero. Smoak should be the starting 1B for the Rangers in 2011, or at worst the DH, provided the bat carries over this year. I would advise against drafting Smoak in any non-keeper leagues for 2010. If Davis or Guerrerro go down for an extended period of time, he‘s an immediate add in AL-only leagues.

Projection: September promotion; not much value in 2010 unless there’s an injury on the major league roster.

Buster Posey C – San Francisco Giants

ADP: 281  Earliest: 206  Drafted: 64%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #11

Opening Day Assignment: Backup C

Analysis: It sure was looking like Bengie Molina was a lock to sign with the Mets, and Posey would be handed the starting catcher job. But Molina resigned with the Giants, meaning Posey will have to wait until 2011 to receive the starting gig.

A nice #2 C play in NL-only leagues, but in mixed leagues you would only want to own Posey if you had Molina as well.

Projection: 300 at-bats and .280/.330/.420

Pedro Alvarez 1B/3B – Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 333  Earliest: 274  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #13

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A

Analysis: Alvarez was the #2 overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh was commended for drafting him despite his huge signing bonus demands. Alvarez didn’t set the world on fire in 2008, or early 2009, and there were rumors that he was out of shape. Then he got promoted to Double-A and a lot of people were scratching their heads. Well, no one is scratching anymore because he put up .333/.419/.590. There isn’t much of a roadblock at 1B for Alvarez with Jeff Clement. Clement could possibly be moved to C if Ryan Doumit is dealt.

I would like to see Alvarez get as many at-bats in Triple-A before getting the call to the Show. This will give him time to adjust to the pitching at that level, play 1B, and get into shape. Unless there is an injury or he’s hitting .350 at AAA, I think a Late 2010 callup is in order.

Projection: 200 ABs/12 HRs/30 RBIs/.275/.350/.500

Brett Wallace 1B/3B – Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 263  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #23

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A / DH in TOR

Analysis: Wallace came over to the Jays in the deal where Michael Taylor went to Oakland. Taylor was expendable because the Jays were already set in the OF and Lyle Overbay is on a one-year deal. Also, the Jays have a void at DH if Travis Snider can hold up in RF. Wallace has been a part of many discussions – people either love him or hate him. I personally love the guy. He has a very wide lower base and I marvel a dude who has worked his tail off to try and stick at 3B. It does look like he will have to go to 1B / DH, but he’s a hitter. I will take a pure hitter over tools at this stage in the game especially in fantasy baseball. Wallace is a nice play if he lands on the 25-man Opening Day roster.

Projection: 500 ABs/15 HRs/65 RBIs/.280/.330/.450

Scott Sizemore 2B – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 326  Earliest: 200  Drafted: 7.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 2B in DET

Analysis: With the departure of Placido Polanco to the Phillies, the job is Sizemore’s. He did suffer a broken left ankle during the Arizona Fall League, but expects to be 100% by spring training. I’m not a fan of where he’s being drafted. Freddy Sanchez, Kelly Johnson, Luis Castillo, and Alberto Callaspo (a personal favorite) are all better 2nd basemen and being drafted below Sizemore. He’s a nice pick in AL only leagues but only as a MI. The problem with Sizemore is that getting 500 at-bats is not a guarantee with Ramon Santiago also in the mix.

Projection: 400 ABs/.265/.325/.390/10 HRs/60 RBIs/12 SBs

Austin Jackson OF – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 332  Earliest: 236  Drafted: 2.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting CF in DET

Analysis: Jackson was much hyped for the past few years as part of the Yankees organization. He was part of the Curtis Granderson trade that also involved the Diamondbacks. Detroit is hoping that Jackson can win the starting CF spot in spring training to help this deal payoff faster. Jackson is going to be a player who won’t have much fantasy value; but will be much more valuable in real baseball because of his defense. He will be a 4th/ 5^th OF in AL-only leagues at best.

Projection: 450 ABs/6 HRs/50 RBIs/18 SBs/.275/.330/.370

Eric Young, Jr UTIL – Colorado Rockies

ADP: 332  Earliest: 258  Drafted: 1.5%

Opening Day Assignment: Super Utility in COL (NL’s Chone Figgins)

Analysis: Son of EY – Eric Young; EY; EY2 or EYJr will enter 2010 as the UTIL guy for the Rockies. He doesn’t have a starting position home right now with Dexter Fowler in CF and Clint Barmes at 2B, but if either struggle – he will get some playing time. Young has been compared to Figgins because of his speed and versatility. I don’t know if Young will be able to hit .300 at the big league level, but if given 400-500 at-bats the SB’s will be 50-plus. I don’t see him getting enough ABs this year to warrant a draft selection.

Projection: 200 ABs/3 HRs/20 RBIs/20 SBs/.275/.325/.390

Michael Brantley OF – Cleveland Indians

ADP: N/R

Opening Day Assignment: Starting LF in CLE

Analysis: With the success of guys like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and Rajai Davis last year; owners are going to want a look at Brantley, who fits the same mold. Tons of speed, gets on base, but doesn’t do much else. The good thing about Brantley is that the starting LF job is his and he will get ABs. He will be a great cheap steals guy for you and is worth a flyer around the 20 th pick in AL-Only leagues.

Projection: 5 HRs/40 RBIs/30 SBs/.275/.350/.375'

Ian Desmond SS – Washington Nationals

ADP: 212 (NL Only)  Earliest: 198  Drafted: 15.0%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting SS in WAS

Analysis: Desmond inherits the SS spot left open when Cristian Guzman was moved to 2B. The wild card will be if the Nats end up signing Orlando Hudson, which would crush Desmond’s value for 2010. In 82 at-bats last year, he put up four HRs and 12 RBIs, while hitting .280. Sample size is small, but it was enough to make him the front-runner for the starting SS job. Desmond has shown pretty good pop in the minor leagues, thus, it isn’t of the question for him to be a 10-15 HR guy.

He comes in around the 12th best SS in the NL, so you are looking at a MI play only. His draft position is a tad low, and I think if you reach on him a round or two early it will be a good move.

Projection: 400 ABs/.270/.330/.435/10 HRs/55 RBIs/15 SBs

David Freese 3B – St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 332  Earliest: 272  Drafted: 2.1%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 3B in STL

Analysis: Freese was supposed to be the starting 3B last year for the Cardinals when Troy Glaus went down with an injury. It never happened and everyone that grabbed him in NL-only leagues (myself included) dropped him just as fast too.

Freese is an older prospect at 26 years of age, but there are no roadblocks – so it’s sink or swim for him in 2010. When looking at Freese there are some things to like and some red flags.

The Good – He’s hit .300 at every level in the minors with strong OPS numbers.

The Bad – His BABIP is ridiculous; mostly over .350; the K% over 20%

“The Bad” tells me is he’s more likely to be a .265 hitter at the big league level; not .300. If everything goes right, Freese could be a Top 15 3B in 2010, which would put in that 250 ADP range. Freese is a good candidate for NL-only leagues at 3B or CI spots.

Projection: 500 ABs/18 HRs/70 RBIs/.265/.335/.440

MLB Fantasy Prospect Reader Poll: Neftali Feliz

Will Neftali Feliz be a valuable fantasy starter in 2010?
	Absolutely. This kid is a ROY contender.
	No way. This kid will need time to develop in the minors or will be sent to the bullpen.
pollcode.com free polls

#7 MLB Fantasy Prospect - Neftali Feliz (SP, Texas Rangers) - Scouting Report

Electric and effortless.

Those are the best words to describe Neftali Feliz’s signature pitch – his fastball. As we saw last year when he was in the bigs, Feliz can kick the pitch up to the upper-90s – with ease – because of his smooth mechanics. Further, the heater isn’t your typical straight four-seamer. It has impressive movement. You gotta love any prospect with an anchor-offering like this in his arsenal.

Raise your hand (in the comments section below) if you’re a keeper league owner who gave up on Feliz last year because he was shaky as a starter and/or because he was transitioned to relief. C’mon, I know there are some of you out there – you told me about your trades and your concerns regarding the young gun.

Feliz had major command issues in the first two months of the season at Triple-A (8.40 BB/9 in April; 3.91 BB/9 in May). Notably, Feliz worked out his command problems as the season progressed. Nevertheless, he was eventually transitioned to relief, with hopes he could help the Rangers down the stretch. That experiment worked, as Feliz was dominant as a reliever (16.2 IP/2.16 ERA/20 Ks/3 BBs/.167 BAA), and eventually promoted to the majors to take a spot at the back of the bullpen.

Feliz opened fantasy eyes with his big league stint, logging 31 IP. Shoot, every time he pitched my Twitter page (@Bill_Root) would explode with comments about Feliz’s dominating performances. Feliz finished the season with the following MLB line: 1.74 ERA/39 Ks/8 BBs/.124 BAA. Not bad for a 20-year old, hey?

My only issue with the way Texas handled Feliz in 2009 was that the Rangers stunted the growth of his secondary pitches. For his long-term future, it would have been better for Feliz (and his owners) if he was permitted to stay in the minors, as a starter, to further develop consistency and location with his curve and change. In the end, these pitches are going to dictate how successful he is as a major league pitcher. Of course, as I said last year when discussing this issue, I guess a couple months in close contact with Rangers President Nolan Ryan didn’t hurt him.

The early word is that Feliz will be given a shot to win a rotation spot in the spring. Yeah, you would think this news would excite a prospect nut like me – it doesn’t. I would prefer to see Feliz in the minors, in the first half, refining his secondary stuff and consistency. He could also use more time to fine-tune his control and command in the zone. The flame-thrower currently has a better Average Draft Position than veteran pitchers like Scott Kazmir and Gavin Floyd. ABSURD! I won’t be a Feliz owner in redraft leagues because I won’t pay that hefty of a price. Follow my lead.

All that said, I urge you to roster Feliz in dynasty and keeper leagues. In fact, Feliz is only in my Top 10 because his ceiling is so ridiculously high. By 2012, I am extremely confident he will be blowing hitters away with his Felizicious fastball, fooling them with his deceptive curve, and inducing grounders with his sinking change. Even if you can’t swing a deal for him now in your long-term leagues, keep an eye on him as the spring and season progresses. You may find an owner much more willing to deal him if he doesn’t win a rotation spot, or is sent to the minors.

Let’s hear your thoughts on Prince Feliz. Do you believe he will make a more significant impact in 2010 than I project? Do you agree with my long-term assessment?