MLB Fantasy Prospects

Toronto Blue Jays Scouting Jose Julio Ruiz (1B/OF, Free Agent, Cuba); Other Cuban Free Agents Still Waiting For A Call

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Yesterday, Morgan Campbell of the Toronto Star provided a nice update on a few Cuban free agents that have been making the rounds. In particular, he reported that Blue Jays’ general manager Alex Anthopoulos was present for a private workout of Jose Julio Ruiz, who has also been linked to the Texas Rangers.  My amigo Cubano, from Cuban Ball Players, initially broke the news of the tryout and predicted that it “…will be probably the last workout session for José Julio Ruiz before deciding which team to play for.”

Campbell further reports that Leslie Anderson, who I’ve covered in the past, is practicing with a pro team in Mexico while awaiting a Major League contract and Yuniesky Maya remains unsigned despite rumors that he’s close to signing with the Red Sox. Listed as 28-years-old, there hasn’t been much hype surrounding this guy. Cubano ranks Maya as his fourth best Cuban MLB prospect, but I believe his age has been a detriment to his signing a big league contract.

Hey Cubano, could you possibly leave us a comment as to why your “cuarto mejor prospecto” has yet to find a team?

Today, Campbell wrote a feature article focusing on the recent influx of Cubans trying to break into the MLB. In an excellent piece of reporting, he suggests that Dayan Viciedo’s contract with the White Sox may have been the watershed moment that caused so many Cuban players to defect:

As years passed, the slow leak of top talent continued – Orlando and Livan Hernandez, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras all left one by one. But none of those departures inspired a surge like the one that has occurred over the last 18 months.

[…]three players' departures – Angels star Kendry Morales, Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar and White Sox prospect Dayan Viciedo – changed players' minds about leaving Cuba.

Neither Morales nor Escobar was a full-time starter in Cuba, but each has excelled in the majors[…]eyes across the island opened wide when Viciedo signed with the White Sox.

Touted as Cuba's next great shortstop, Viciedo entered the National Series as a 15-year-old in 2005, and hit 14 home runs the next year. From there[…]his production declined, yet after defecting in 2008 he still signed a four-year, $10-million (all figures U.S.) deal with Chicago.

"Viciedo had a very significant impact on the thinking of Cuban players[…]They thought, `If he can get $10 million, then what am I worth?"

Very interesting stuff there. Cuban veterans such as Anderson, Maya, and Ruiz are learning an important lesson about MLB executives – it’s all about potential. General managers and scouts don’t care about past accolades in a league where they have little access, control, nor influence. These clubs want to invest in skills they can develop within their own organization, with coaches they trust. Whether it be with the Blue Jays, the Rangers, or some other team, my sense is that Ruiz will sign first, but not for the dinero he envisioned when he started this journey.

Five Post-Hype Prospects You Should Draft In 2010

Contributed by Kenny Walter

We're all guilty of it. We all want to be the first to discover an endless supply of oil in our own backyard. Every year, hundreds of baseball fans flock to sites like these, purchase magazines, and listen to countless banter on which players will be this year’s hottest new prospects graduating into the big leagues. Who wouldn't want to be the owner who stumbles across a Ryan Braun in the last few rounds of a draft? Braun wasn't Baseball America's top prospect, not even the Brewers’ top prospect. In fact, in 2006, the year before he broke out, he hit only 15 bombs in Double-A. Braun proceeded to get the call early in '07 and jack 43.

This is the equivalent of hitting the fantasy lottery. But in real life, just as in baseball, not many folks hit the lottery. So, what do us die-hard owners do? We evaluate every young player coming through the minor leagues with a fine-tooth comb, searching for the next impact bat or arm to carry us on their wings to a title.

What happens, however, after the shine of a top prospect wears off? So many great players become forgotten as quickly as a double play when they don't perform at All-Star levels quickly enough. We live in an instant world these days and if it’s not right now, it’s never. Let's face it, baseball is not an easy game. Period.

David Price and Matt Weiters have promising futures, but I guarantee there is a contingent of fantasy baseball players who have written them off. They didn't achieve Braun or Tim Lincecum's instant success and they will avoid them like Matthew McConaughy avoids a shirt. My advice would be to snag both at a reduced “Price.”

Bottom line is, for every Braun there are stacks and stacks of Delmon Youngs piling up in a trash heap near you. So, today we dig deeper and identify a few former can't miss studs who may bounce back and a few it may be safe to give up on.

Here’s are five post-hype fantasy cogs to target:

Jay Bruce (OF, Cincinnati Reds)

This his kid did it all in the minors, he hit for average, showed flashes of plus-speed , and most importantly, delivered 30-plus homer potential. What's not to like here. He was called up a few months into the '08 season and got off to a blistering pace – torching the National League. He put together a first half batting average of .316 with 13 HRs and nine SBs. Then pitchers caught up to him. He managed to hold his own and end with very promising numbers. No surprise, everyone was standing in line come 2009. Still only 22-years-old, Bruce struggled. The average evaporated right before owners’ eyes and fell to .223. That said, despite battling injuries all year, he still increased his walk rate and contact rate. In 2010, other owners will only see the final numbers; Bruce could deliver great value. No one has been predicting a .300 average, but I don't think it is out of the question. Shoot, we know the power is legit. With age he should certainly figure out lefties more. Take a shot on him this year. In keeper/dynasty leagues, this guy is the real deal.

Phil Hughes (P, New York Yankees)

Yanks’ prospects tend to be over-hyped to begin with, but this dude was promoted as the second-coming of Roger Clemens. Hughes was in so many expert’s Top 10 lists he was giving Letterman a run for his money. The luster has dimmed considerably after a sputtering launch and an eventual demotion to the bullpen. Sneaky fantasy experts will notice that his numbers, setting up the robot that is Mariano Rivera, were off the charts good. He struck out 49 batters in 39 innings and posted a whip below one (0.93) after the break. Now that’s just filth on display for the masses. The only question is, can he turn bullpen success into dominant fifth starter magic? With his pedigree and the confidence he built in the bullpen, I would think a street magician could pull that one off. Expect him to secure the last spot in the Yankees rotation.

Johnny Cueto (SP, Cincinnati Reds)

Who could forget this Dominican Dandy bursting onto the scene back in early '08? Owners were scrambling to add this guy and fighting over waiver positions. He came out blazing, pitching near no-hitters and appearing on SportsCenter after every start. Major league hitters are special though, and they figured out his “child play” rather quickly. He finished that year with a 4.97 ERA in the second half and then added another 4.41 ERA last year. He hit rock bottom in the second half last year with a 7.00 ERA. No, that’s not a misprint. So why do I think he can bounce back and bring smiles to fake teams all across the nation this year? He had shoulder issues last year and it just seems that his body needed to adjust to the grind of a full MLB season. The skills are there. I think the body comes around this year. He's a young kid figuring out a new level of competition, along with a new country. You can grab him late for practically nothing and reap the rewards.

Chris Iannetta (C, Colorado Rockies)

Since his breakout campaign in '06, split between Double-A and Triple-A, this young catcher has been looked upon to provide nice pop with a .300 average. It hasn't happened at the major league level. We have seen flashes of brilliance, such as last year’s World Baseball Classic. Iannetta played like his hair was on fire for the good 'Ole USA, but he ended up finishing with disappointing numbers for the Rockies. It seems pretty obvious that Chris will never post a high average, but he increased his fly ball rate last year and is coming into his prime at age 27. He will never be Mike Piazza, but at the catcher position, he’s almost guaranteed to dip farther in drafts than he deserves. He could easily net you 25 bombs with the chance for more at Coors Field. Iannetta is a sweet upside risk for later in your drafts – don’t let Miguel Olivo’s presence scare you.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP, Boston Red Sox)

Who can forget the buzz around this guy in 2007? The posting fee, the gyro ball, Dice-K mania was in full effect. He burst on the scene and struck out 200 batters that year, but managed to walk 80. Then in '08 he won 18 games and managed to walk 94 before completely falling off the map last year. Recently, he revealed a hidden injury that may have hindered his lost '09. To top it all off, he may have been diagnosed with a new back injury. So why would anyone want to buy into that stock? No doubt, the walks are a huge issue. Pay close attention to the back in spring training, but this man made a vow to his countrymen to atone for his 2009 performance. He is much like Ichiro in the sense – failure is unacceptable. I look for a strong bounce back here. He may not be the ace that the Red Sox were looking for, but that doesn't mean he can't be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 for our purposes. Even if the ERA is high and the walks continue, we know he is capable of 200 K's and 18 wins. Can he match both of these levels? He is pitching for the right team and staff to give it a good run.

2010 MLBFP Divisional Series: Top 10 American League East Fantasy Prospects

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

The American League East features perhaps the most major league-ready talent of any division, and contains several excellent candidates for AL Rookie of the Year in 2010. The division is typically a nightmare for pitchers, but eight of the 15 players on this list pitch so well, they’re top prospects anyway. Without further ado, here are your Top 10 AL East Fantasy Prospects for 2010 and beyond.

The Top 10

1) Desmond Jennings (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: Mid-2010

One of the most exciting prospects in baseball, Jennings has a real chance at making the most fantasy impact of any rookie this year. After battling injuries in 2007 and 2008, Jennings finally stayed healthy in 2009, and hit .318-11-62 with 52 stolen bases and a .419 OBP between Double and Triple-A. A true five-tool talent, Jennings also has the ability to develop into a five-category fantasy stud, as many scouts believe he will develop 15-20 homerun power. Desmond will likely start the year in Triple-A, but considering he only has to outplay Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler to join the Rays’ outfield, he will probably be up for good by June. If he gets 400 ABs, Jennings could hit .290-5-40 with around 35 stolen bases in 2010. As he progresses in his career, he should become remarkably similar to the man who will flank him in the outfield: Carl Crawford. Needless to say, Crawford-type players are extremely valuable in the fantasy world, and don’t often last to far into the third-round of any drafts. Fantasy owners should watch Jennings closely in spring training, and if it looks like he’s going to break Tampa’s roster in April, he’s a solid late-round pick in all leagues.

2) Brian Matusz (SP, Baltimore Orioles)  ETA: 2010

Arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball not named Stephen Strasburg, Matusz skyrocketed through the Orioles’ farm system, reaching the majors in his first professional season. A big lefty with above-average stuff and polished command, Matusz dominated in the minors last season, going 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and a 9.64 K/9 rate in 113 innings between High-A and Double-A. Once he reached the majors, Matusz was no longer lights-out, but more than held his own, going 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 Ks in eight starts. Like most pitchers who debut in the AL East, Matusz is unlikely to completely dominate right away, but could be one of the better fantasy pitchers in all of baseball a few years down the line. Matusz’ good stuff and exceptional makeup remind me of left-handed Dan Haren, and that’s the type of player Matusz projects as. Matusz will likely make the Orioles’ rotation out of spring training, and should grab 10-13 wins, with a sub 4.50 ERA and 160 strikeouts, making him a solid option in AL-only leagues and an interesting late-round flyer in mixed leagues.

3) Jesus Montero (C/DH, New York Yankees)  ETA: 2011

Yankee and Met prospects are often overhyped, but, unfortunately for my fellow Red Sox fans, Montero is the real deal. One of the 10 best prospects in the minors, Jesus Montero can flat out rake. At the young age of 19, Montero crushed minor league pitchers to the tune of .337-17-70, while splitting time between High-A and Double-A, last season. The Yankees are keeping him at catcher for now, but Montero is highly unlikely to stay behind the plate, where he would likely make Mike Piazza look like Yadier Molina defensively. While that puts a slight damper on his fantasy value, it doesn’t matter where Montero plays, because he’s going to be an absolute fantasy stud. Montero projects as a pure hitter in the Frank Thomas mold, who should hit .300-35-110 on an annual basis, with a solid OBP to boot. Jennings and Matusz are higher on this list because of their proximity to the majors, but Montero is likely to be the best of the bunch. Montero’s biggest problem right now is his lack of a position, as he is blocked at first base by Mark Teixiera, and the Yankees are unlikely to want a young hitter to clog their DH spot. While his bat will create a logjam, Montero is the type of player you make room for, and he should start receiving some regular big league at-bats by 2011.

4) Brett Wallace (1B/3B Toronto Blue Jays)  ETA: Mid-2010

One of the better pure hitters in the upper minors, Wallace was traded twice in the past season, first to Oakland as part of a deal for Matt Holliday, and then to Toronto in a straight swap for fellow Top 50 prospect Michael Taylor. A smooth-swinging lefty, Wallace hit .293-20-63 last season between Double and Triple-A, and actually hit better in the higher league. Although he has been able to stay at third base so far, Wallace is likely destined for first, which hampers his fantasy value. Wallace profiles as a borderline Top 10 fantasy first baseman capable of hitting .320-20-90 in the majors. Offensively, Wallace is fairly similar to Michael Young, only with a little more pop and less speed. After hitting very well in over 400 ABs at Triple-A, Wallace needs relatively little seasoning before he’s ready for a promotion. Wallace should take over for fantasy non-factor Lyle Overbay as Toronto’s first baseman before seasons end, and will be worthy of fantasy attention from all owners when called up. Unless he looks poised to take the job out of spring training, however, I would not recommend drafting Wallace to start the 2010 season.

5) Wade Davis (SP, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: 2010

Davis is probably the safest bet of any player on this list to have significant fantasy value this season, as unless he has a horrible spring training, he’s slated to be the Ray’s fifth starter. Davis was very good in Triple-A last season, going 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA in 28 starts. In his six major league starts, Davis also pitched well, finishing with a 2-2 record while still keeping his ERA under 4.00. An absolute workhorse on the mound, Davis is more of No. 2 pitcher than an ace, but still has the potential to be a solid fourth or fifth fantasy pitcher for years to come. His heavy sinker and durability point to him becoming a Derek Lowe-type pitcher, capable of winning 14-17 games with a sub-4.00 ERA and 150-170 strikeouts – in a very tough division. If all goes well, Davis should get 30 starts this season, and considering the Rays’ improving offense and spectacular defense, 15 wins is not out of the question. If the Rays solve their pitching logjam by trading Davis to a more pitcher-friendly division, his fantasy value could rise significantly. For now, though, Davis is a nice sleeper pick in mixed leagues and a great grab in AL-only leagues.

6) Jeremy Hellickson (SP, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: Mid-2010

Another major league ready pitcher in the Rays’ system, Hellickson is currently blocked by fellow prospect Wade Davis. The two are generally ranked within a few spots of each other on most prospect lists, and while they are very different pitchers, their upsides are fairly similar. Where as Davis gets the job done with overpowering stuff, Hellickson relies more on control and command, and had a K/9 of 10.4 last season, to go along with a solid BB/9 of just 2.3. Fantasy owners can look forward to Hellickson transforming into a better version of Scott Baker, capable of winning 14-17 games with a sub-4.00 ERA and 160-180 strikeouts per year. Those numbers are remarkably similar to my projection for Davis, and it’s likely that both of these pitchers will be eating up quality innings in Tampa for years to come. Hellickson probably won’t make the Ray’s rotation out of spring training, but he’s likely next in line for starts if any of their current rotation members should struggle or become injured. I don’t recommend drafting Hellickson just yet, but he should definitely be on every owner’s watch list.

7) Casey Kelly (SP, Boston Red Sox)  ETA: Mid-2011

Kelly has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on this list other than Brian Matusz, but is ranked seventh because he is probably a season-and-a-half away from contributing to the major league team. Armed with a good fastball, great changeup, developing curveball, and exceptional command, Kelly used his three-pitch arsenal to shut down Single-A hitters to the tune of a 7-5 record, with a 2.08 ERA and 74 strikeouts, in 95 innings last season. Signed as a two-way athlete, Kelly has given up on his aspirations of playing shortstop, which will likely speed up his development on the mound. With a stacked rotation, the Red Sox have little need to rush Kelly and should let him develop. Still, if Josh Beckett doesn’t resign with the club, Kelly may be called upon to fill his spot in the rotation in late-2011. As I wrote in my breakdown of top Red Sox prospects, Kelly profiles as a Roy Oswalt-type pitcher, capable of winning 15-18 games per season with a sub-3.50 ERA and 170 strikeouts. Those numbers would make Kelly a fantastic number two fantasy starter, and a Top 75 player overall.

8) Kyle Drabek (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)  ETA: Mid-2010

The son of former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, Kyle rebounded from Tommy John surgery to dominate the minors in 2009, as he went 12-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 8.54 K/9 rate between Single and Double-A. Drabek’s fantasy value took a significant hit, however when he was traded from the offensively average NL East to the pitcher’s nightmare that is the AL East. Drabek features a slightly above-average fastball and a developing changeup, but what makes him so good is his devastating, Ben Sheets-like curveball. Drabek’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as the other pitchers on this list, as he profiles as more of a No. 3 starter than an ace, especially in the AL East. His shaky command, average fastball, and explosive curve remind me of former Phillies prospect Gavin Floyd, and I believe that’s the kind of ceiling Drabek has. Because of his name value, Drabek is slightly overvalued in dynasty leagues right now, but he should still be a very useful fourth or fifth fantasy pitcher in the future, capable of netting 15 wins with a sub-4.25 ERA and around 180 K’s in the majors. Drabek will likely start the year at Triple-A, but may force his way into the Jays’ rotation by season’s end.

9) Ryan Westmoreland (OF, Boston Red Sox)  ETA: Mid-2012

Aside from Jesus Montero, Westmoreland has the highest fantasy upside of any player on this list, but falls to number nine because of his distance from the majors and his troubling injury history. A potential five-category fantasy producer, Westmoreland has an advanced feel at the plate that should allow him to hit for average north of .290 on a regular basis. He has above average speed and is an excellent base runner (he went 19-19 in stolen bases last season). Further, his power is continuing to develop. Westmoreland has a long way to go and needs to prove himself against better pitching, but his ceiling is a Grady Sizemore or Matt Kemp-type five-tool center fielder, capable of hitting 30-30 and anchoring both a major league and a fantasy lineup. Westmoreland needs to prove he can stay healthy, and is still mostly projection at this point, but is a must-own in all dynasty leagues. If he gets 400 healthy ABs this season, he could be a Top 10 fantasy prospect at this time next year.

10) Josh Bell (3B, Baltimore Orioles)  ETA: 2011

The Orioles’ third baseman of the future, Bell profiles as a solid power bat at a position where power is becoming increasingly scarce. A future No. 5 hitter, Bell has solid all-around offensive tools, but is special as a left-handed hitter, as hit .339 with 19 HRs from the left side of the plate in 2009. He is technically a switch hitter, but may have to give up on those aspirations soon, as he as been abysmal from the right side of the plate. Bell profiles as Mike Lowell-type offensive player, capable of hitting .300-25-90 on an annual basis. He hit very well in Double-A last season, but should spend most, if not all, of 2010 in Triple-A. Come 2011, however, I expect Bell to be starting at the hot corner for the O’s, and join an impressive nucleus of young players. Bell is a stellar pick in dynasty leagues, but shouldn’t be touched in redraft leagues.

The Next 5

11) Matt Moore (SP, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: 2012

Here’s your super sleeper. Only 20-years-old, Moore has great stuff and only needs to refine his command to become one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He has a ways to go, but Moore has Mark Mulder-type, top-of-the-rotation potential. Grab him in dynasty leagues now.

12) Zack Stewart (SP/RP, Toronto Blue Jays)  ETA: 2010

A foolish give away by Cincinnati in the Scott Rolen-Edwin Encarnacion deal, Stewart has a ceiling of a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but might be even more valuable to fantasy owners as a closer. Toronto plans to keep him in the rotation for now, but with a plethora of young starters, Stewart could return to the pen and be closing games by the end of the season.

13) Lars Anderson (1B, Boston Red Sox)  ETA: Mid-2011

After ranking as the Red Sox’ top prospect last year, Anderson had a horrible 2009 season and has seen his stock fall considerably. Still, Anderson has too much potential to ignore, and could still become a Carlos Delgado-like player. Watch Anderson closely for the first half of 2010 before you consider dropping him in dynasty leagues.

14) Jake Arrieta (SP, Baltimore Orioles)  ETA: Mid-2010

Fellow Orioles’ pitcher Zach Britton may be a better long-term prospect, but Arrieta is nearly major league-ready, and should be in the O’s rotation by July. His high walk rates will likely prevent him from ever becoming an elite fantasy pitcher, but he could post Doug Davis-like numbers of 15 wins, a sub-4.50 ERA, and 150-160 strikeouts per year.

15) Reid Brignac (SS, Tampa Bay Rays)  ETA: 2010

Brignac is a solid – but unspectacular shortstop – who is blocked by Jason Bartlett now and 2008 No. 1 draft pick Tim Beckham later. If given 500 AB’s, Brignac could hit a Mark Teahen-like .280-15-70 with five stolen bases, which would sadly make him fantasy relevant considering his position. Unless he’s traded or Bartlett is injured, however, Brignac will be a utility player at best in 2010.

Hisanori Takahashi (SP, Free Agent, Japan) Linked to Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Giants

Back in November, we introduced you to Hisanori Takahashi, a 34-year-old, Japanese lefty trying to break into MLB after spending his entire 10-year career with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. On January 28, Rotoworld reported the following:

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports that the Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox and Giants are among the teams with interest in Japanese left-hander Hisanori Takahashi.

MLBFP’s Japanese Baseball correspondent, Brandon Siefken of Japan Baseball News, just emailed me some insider information as to why Takahashi has yet to sign. The word is that he is insisting on being a starter. Most MLB scouts, Siefken included, do not think he is worthy of starting pitcher money.

Who else thinks that the team that signs Takahashi will be “promising” a shot at the rotation?

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Team Scouting Reports and Analysis - Boston Red Sox

Contributed by Ben Carsley

From fantasy studs like Hanley Ramirez and Jonathan Papelbon to role players like David Murphy and Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox have produced an abundance of fantasy-worthy players over the past ten years. While most of the real talent in Boston’s system is at the Single-A and Double-A levels, the Sox also have several prospects ready to make a splash in the upcoming season. The following breakdown offers fantasy owners all the information they need about Boston’s farm system in 2010 and beyond.

The Top Tier

Casey Kelly, RHSP: ETA, late 2011

Kelly is considered by many to be the Red Sox top prospect, as he is viewed as a safer bet to reach his ceiling than fellow prospect Ryan Westmoreland. Featuring a solid fastball, above-average curveball, and an improving changeup, Kelly was dominant as a starter in Low-A and still very good in High-A, walking only 1.5 batters per inning.

Once Kelly is a big leaguer, he has the chance to be a significant contributor to a fantasy staff as a second or third starting pitcher in a 10-team league. Kelly will probably not be a total strike out machine, but could be a Roy Oswalt-type pitcher, netting fantasy owners 170 strikeouts to go along with a sub-3.50 ERA, sub-1.50 WHIP, and 15-18 wins annually. The odds of Kelly being unclaimed in dynasty leagues are slim to none, but if he’s available, you should pounce.

Ryan Westmoreland, OF: ETA, 2012

Westmoreland has the highest upside of any Red Sox prospect, and is now ranked ahead of Kelly on some prospect lists. When healthy, there’s almost nothing Westmoreland can’t do on a baseball field. A true five-tool-threat, Westmoreland’s only red flag is his injury history, as he’s already suffered two significant shoulder injuries, limiting him to 223 at-bats last season.

Once he does reach the big leagues, Westmoreland has the potential to be a first round fantasy pick. His ceiling is a Grady Sizemore-type player, who could hit .290-30-100 with 30 stolen bases, annually. If he fills out more and slows down on the bases, he would still have top-3 round potential. Either way, Westmoreland is a must-have in dynasty leagues, and if he holds up for a whole season, he could easily be a top-10 fantasy prospect next year.

Lars Anderson, 1B: ETA, 2011

Yankee and Red Sox prospects are frequently victims of their own success and that may have been the case with Anderson in 2009. After a breakout 2008 season that had many Sox fans naming him the heir-apparent to David Ortiz, Anderson struggled mightily last year, hitting just .233-9-51 in Double-A with an abysmal .345 slugging percentage.

While many Boston fans will undoubtedly now write the young lefty off, his skill set remains impressive. If healthy, Anderson still has huge fantasy potential. Fully capable of hitting 30-plus home runs with a high average, Anderson’s upside is that of a Carlos Delgado-type player worthy of being drafted in the top 5 rounds of a draft. Those in dynasty leagues should hold on to Anderson and hope for a rebound in 2010. If he gets his career back on track, they will be handsomely rewarded.

Worthy of Mention: Jose Iglesias, SS: ETA, 2011

Don’t Forget These Future Fantasy Cogs

Michael Bowden, RHSP: ETA, 2010

Once considered the Red Sox future No. 4 starter, Bowden’s star faded considerably over the past season. Casual fans will look at his 9.56 ERA and immediately be turned off, but his minor league numbers were once again strong, and Bowden is still just 23 years old.

Bowden is sure to be up with the Red Sox at some point this season, either as an injury replacement or as a showcase for other teams. Those in AL-only leagues may want to take a late-round flyer on him. If he stays in the AL East, he’s unlikely to have appreciable fantasy value in standard 10-team leagues. If traded, however, especially to a National League club, he could turn in a Randy Wolf-like performance and sport a sub-4.00 ERA with 160 strikeouts.

Josh Reddick, OF: ETA, 2010

A similar player to former Red Sox outfielder David Murphy (but with more power), Reddick is a high-energy, medium-upside player who gets the most out of his considerable athletic abilities. With a good arm, above-average speed, and decent pop, the only thing Reddick needs to do to guarantee himself playing time is improve his selectivity at the plate, as his OBP dipped to .317 in 2009.

Reddick, who took 59 at-bats in the majors last year, was likely disappointed when the Sox traded for Jeremy Hermida, killing any chance he had to be the team’s fourth outfielder. Nonetheless, with the injury-prone JD Drew in right and the 38-year-old Mike Cameron in center,the odds of the Red Sox needing a fifth outfielder at some point during the season are very high. Reddick is not worth drafting right now, but should be picked up if any of Boston’s outfielders are going to miss significant time. Once in the majors for good, he could bat .280-20-70 with 15 stolen bases.

Dustin Richardson, LHRP: ETA, 2010

Richardson is a big, imposing lefty who, according to Baseball America, starred in the ESPN show, “Knight School” and nearly made Texas Tech’s basketball team as a walk-on. Fortunately for the Red Sox and fantasy owners alike, he decided to stick with baseball.

Richardson, who possesses three average-or-better pitches, was phenomenal in the minors last year, posting a 2.55 ERA and a K/9 rate of 11.68 between Double and Triple-A. He will compete for the final spot in the Red Sox bullpen and, even if he is initially sent back to the minors, will very likely see significant major league time this year. His fantasy value is rather limited, but he could pick up a few holds or vulture wins, all while providing good strike out numbers along the way. Consider him in deep AL-only leagues. If all goes well for Richardson, he could be the heir to Hideki Okajima as the Red Sox’ primary lefty reliever.

Worthy of Mention: Junichi Tazawa, RHSP: ETA, 2010

Looking Down The Line

David Renfroe, SS/3B: ETA, 2013

A young, power-hitting shortstop, Renfroe, who was Boston’s third round draft pick in 2009, will likely have to move to third base down the line. A four-tool player (he lacks plus speed), Renfroe could easily be a Top 10 prospect for the Red Sox next year. Offensively, his ceiling is that of a poor man’s Evan Longoria, who could hit .300-25-90. Those in deep dynasty leagues could do far worse than to fill out their team with Renfroe, whose professional approach should allow him to move quickly.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B: ETA, 2011

Just as dramatic as Lars Anderson’s fall was Rizzo’s rise to prominence in 2009. A gifted defensive first basemen, some, such as ESPN’s Keith Law, now rank Rizzo ahead of Anderson on the Red Sox organizational depth chart. While Rizzo cannot match Anderson’s fantasy potential, he’s not devoid of value himself. A lefty hitter with developing power, Rizzo’s easy swing could allow him to hit .300 with 20-plus homerun pop down the line. If Anderson continues to falter, his dynasty league owners could drop him in favor of Rizzo, who may be the better all-around player.

Derrick Gibson, 2B/SS/3B: ETA, late 2012

Whereas fantasy owners should pay attention to Renfroe and Rizzo for their power, Gibson needs to be mentioned for his speed. According to Baseball America, Gibson possesses “plus-plus” speed, and swiped 28 bags in 67 games in the New York-Penn league last season. Gibson is unlikely to ever possess the ability to hit for significant power, but for fantasy owners, any player capable of putting up a Chone Figgins-like line of a .300 batting average with 40-plus stolen bases is worth keeping track of. Jose Iglesias is pegged as the Sox shortstop of the future, but Gibson’s versatility should allow him to reach the majors relatively quickly.

Worthy of Mention: Ryan Kalish, OF: ETA, late 2011

Closer Look: Scouting Jose Julio Ruiz (1B, Free Agent, Cuba)

Time to dig a little deeper on Jose Julio Ruiz. Again, we must thank our Cuban Baseball expert, Cubano from the Cuban Ball Players blog.

José Julio has held tryouts with the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants among other interested teams.

In a addition to that tidbit, Cubano offers some comparable statistics that pit Ruiz against some of the more prominent sluggers in Cuban Baseball. The one that caught my eye was Angels first baseman, Kendry Morales.

During Kendry’s three seasons in Cuba, his homerun frequency 23.5, meaning he hit a homerun every 23 to 24 at-bats. When you compare that to what Jose Julio Ruiz did in five seasons (40 AB/HR), I can infer that Morales has more power than Ruiz. In fact, in 2009, Morales hit a homerun once in every 20.5 at-bats for the Halos. Ruiz, at 26-years-old, is coming into Major League Baseball a more polished player than his countryman, but he doesn’t seem to have the same penchant for hitting the long ball. 

Again, I must note that until this guy signs with a team, it will be difficult to predict his impact for 2010. In the meantime, here’s a list of 1B with homerun frequencies (based on 2009 stats) that you might compare to Jose Julio Ruiz: Nick Johnson (57.1); James Loney (44.3); Jorge Cantu (36.6); and Todd Helton (36.3). Certainly, if Ruiz can hit for average or get on base like Helton or Johnson, skills which he did show in Cuba, he’s certainly worth tracking throughout the spring.

Look, I have little doubt that this guy is going to see regular playing time for a big league club during 2010, but I’m not convinced - yet - that Jose Julio Ruiz is more than a supporting player for your fantasy squad. Spring Training is going to be crucial for him.

Is Noel Arguelles (Kansas City Royals, SP) the Next Cuban Sensation?

Back on December 5th, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports broke the story when the Kansas City Royals signed little known Cuban, Noel Arguelles:

The small-market Kansas City Royals are betting big on a free agent they’ve seen pitch only a handful of times.

Noel Arguelles, a 19-year-old left-hander who last year defected from Cuba, agreed to a five-year, $7 million major league deal with the Royals on Saturday, according to a club source. Arguelles can earn up to $2 million in incentives as well.

We contacted our friend Cubano, who manages a blog aptly named Cuban Ball Players, to give us a scouting report on the KC’s big investment. He currently has Arguelles ranked as the 13th best Cuban prospect potentially available to MLB teams.

Noel Argüelles (6’3”, 210lbs.) is a product of the Havana pitching school. Havana has had the best pitching in Cuba lately; thus, young Argüelles was relegated to the bullpen and used when games were out of reach, especially during his rookie campaign. Argüelles made the Cuban Junior team and left the team during the 2007 Junior World Cup in Canada, alongside José Iglesias (Iglesias signed a four-year, $8.2 million deal with the Boston Red Sox and impressed scouts in the Arizona Fall League).

Argüelles should improve his control as he pitches regularly in the USA. Argüelles reached 94 MPH in Cuba. He also hit 94 MPH in while training in Miami, according to a Cuban Ball Players source.

Argüelles debuted in the 46th Cuban season. The Cuban National Series usually runs from November through March. Therefore, the 46th season started in 2006 and ended in 2007.  In his rookie year, Argüelles walked (26) more batters than innings pitched (23.2). Oftentimes, young Cuban players struggle in the Cuban League after coming from the junior ranks. In his second season, Argüelles control problems continued. Argüelles would have benefited greatly by pitching in the Cuban Developmental League for 2 seasons.

Argüelles should start in A-ball so he can pitch every fifth day and improve his control as he logs more innings.  He needs to work on his secondary pitches. Argüelles throws a 94 MPH fastball, slider, and a rudimentary curveball, all while using a flawless, three-quarters delivery.  His father was a goalkeeper for the Cuban Soccer National Team and is a big guy. For that reason, there is a high probability Argüelles will keep getting bigger and stronger

Thought to be a consolation price for any team unable to sign Aroldis Chapman, Arguelles actually got his payday before his highly-touted countryman. However, it seems as if it could be awhile before he joins Chapman in the majors. It’s just too early to tell whether the Royals have made a wise investment. Nonetheless, if you’re in a deep dynasty league, the big price tag is probably a sign that Arguelles is worth stashing on your roster.

#13 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Aroldis Chapman (SP, Free Agent, Cuba) - Scouting Report

It’s not easy for me to place Aroldis Chapman in MLBFP’s Top 25. This Cuban defect could easily become a prospect reject.

That said, even though Chapman is as raw as a diaper-rashed baby’s bottom and has yet to sign with a major league squad, he deserves a spot on his list for one reason – his mouth-watering upside. We are talking about a 21-year-old (yeah, we all want to examine the birth certificate) with a 6-4, 179-pound projectable frame and the ability to hit triple digits on the radar gun. Shoot, even the biggest Chapman-haters can’t deny that his age, body-type, and arm trigger a reaction from the salivary glands.

Chapman is primarily a three-pitch-pony. He’s armed with a mid-90s fastball, late-moving slider and a developing curveball. The lanky southpaw throws a splitter and a variety of changeups as well, but those pitches are works-in-progress. Chapman’s already has the fastball velocity and nastilicious slider to have some big league success. After watching some tape on this dude, I’m convinced the slider could become his signature in the bigs rather than his heater. The pitch is extremely deceptive because it’s on an almost-identical plane as the fastball until it sends left-handed hitters fishing and back-doors right-handed batters.

Why is Chapman’s downside as dangerous as his upside? Well, the Cuban sensation still hasn’t mastered his control or command. Chapman has been known to go on walk-fests and tends to miss his spots even when he’s around the plate. For example, Chapman has had the following BB/9 rates in Cuba over the past four years: 9.0, 5.5, 4.5 and 4.7. These rates will be even higher in the majors given the transition from Cuban baseball to MLB. Trust me, major league hitters will patiently force him to find the plate, and will hammer him if he consistently makes mistakes in the zone. Chapman needs time to become a pitcher rather than a thrower; his velocity alone won’t make him a fantasy force.

There have also been questions about Chapman’s maturity and mental makeup. Can he handle the pressure of the mammoth contract once he signs? Will he melt on the mound when he experiences adversity? Will he work hard enough to become a stud pitcher? These are all still open questions. Chapman needs to plant himself on a team with a top-notch pitching coach, who can perfect his mechanics/off-speed pitches, and supporting veterans who can look over his shoulder.

Chapman is reportedly looking for a $40-60 million deal. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, and Toronto Blue Jays have all expressed interest in the international free agent. Chapman recently fired his agent, Edwin Mejia, who was deep in negotiations with many teams. Chapman has replaced Mejia with the Hendricks brothers to finish off a deal. This is a hint he may be headed to the Bronx because of the Hendricks brothers’ deep-rooted relationship with the Yanks. Our man, Scoops Sheridan, predicted back in July that Chapman would end up in pinstripes. We will soon find out if he was on the mark.

It’s obvious I have major reservations about Chapman. In fact, there’s a real possibility he only ends up slightly better than fellow Cuban, Jose Contreras, if he remains a starting pitcher. Yikes. Nevertheless, you can’t pass on him in limited-pool keeper league drafts because of his projectable body, power repertoire, and enormous ceiling. Further, even if Chapman is moved to the back of the bullpen because he can’t develop a solid third pitch, he will still provide great value in most formats as dominant closer.

Chapman will have initial struggles. He is more of a project prospect than a blue-chipper. You need to have long-term patience and a pro-risk mentality to acquire him. Don’t overpay for Chapman in trades because of the hovering red flags, but scoop him up in keeper league drafts if he’s there for the taking.

Check out the video on Chapman below. Future ace? The Yankees’ dominant closer in 2015? Overrated and overhyped No. 4 starter? Let’s hear your thoughts.

Minding the Hot Stove - Trade Analysis: Marlins Trade Jeremy Hermida to the Red Sox

Contributed by Ray Guilfoyle

Usually the MLB Hot Stove doesn’t really get cookin’ until after the GM meetings in early November. Well, this year the hot stove got into full-gear just after the World Series ended. Already we have seen four off-season trades and should see more soon from the Winter Meetings in December. Judging by the way GMs are posturing, this off-season could be highlighted by more trades than usual, moving some of the spotlight away from big free agent signings and shining more on trade rumors. Today, I’ll be analyzing the Marlins trade of Jeremy Hermida to the Red Sox for minor league pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.

For the second year in a row, the Marlins are trading-off their arbitration eligible players and will most likely deal second baseman Dan Uggla. The Fish are also considering moving third baseman Jorge Cantu and possibly starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco. I am sure you all know that Hermida was once the top prospect in baseball, but he is one of the many who have never lived up to their potential.

This deal benefits owners of five-tool outfielder prospect Cameron Maybin, Double-A outfielder Scott Cousins, and the power-hitting uber-prospect, Michael Stanton, also in Double-A. Here is what Joe Frisaro from MLB.com had to say after the Hermida trade:

Florida expects to bring back Cody Ross, who also is eligible for arbitration, to play right field. The team's outfield projects to be Chris Coghlan in left field, Cameron Maybin in center and Ross in right. Coghlan, however, may wind up at second base. There is a strong likelihood that Dan Uggla will be traded.

If Coghlan moves back to the infield, the Marlins have several outfield prospects, including Scott Cousins and Mike Stanton.

"If Maybin slides into center field, Cody can play right," [Marlins GM] Beinfest said. "Stanton and Cousins are on their way. We thought we were dealing from an area of depth. And also, within our payroll, our allocations need to be in the best place to be most competitive. Obviously, [Hermida] is a second-time arbitration player."

After his cup of coffee last September, Maybin, who came to the Marlins two seasons ago in the Miguel Cabrera deal, will be handed the centerfield job in spring training.

Larry Beinfest says his team trading from an area of depth, but looking at their 40-man roster, I see only Brett Carroll and Alfredo Amezaga after Coghlan, Ross, and Maybin. Since Carroll and Amezaga are players who are better served in reserve roles, I think the Marlins may look to the free agent market and sign an outfielder to a one year deal. Someone like Garret Anderson would be a perfect match as he would come cheap and could be platooned with Carroll until Stanton is ready. Florida could also promote John Raynor, who went 6-36-19-.257-.327-.360-.687 in 123 games with Triple-A New Orleans in 2009. He too could be the right-handed part of a platoon with a Anderson.

If the Marlins stay in-house, they have a tough choice between Cousins or Stanton.  Cousins hit .268 with 12 HRs, 74 RBI and 27 SBs in 130 games. Stanton went 16-53-.231-.311-.455 in 299 ABs for Jacksonville, but went 28-92-.255-.341-.501-.842 for the season split between High-A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville. And don't forget about AA outfielder Bryan Peterson who is currently hitting very well in the Arizona Fall League. Peterson went 7-49-13-.297-.368-.413 in 2009, and is projected to be a fourth outfielder type in the big leagues.

As for Hermida, he is probably just an insurance policy for the Red Sox should they not re-sign free agent left fielder Jason Bay or go after Scott Boras client, Matt Holliday. If the Boston signs either one of them, Hermida will be a fourth outfielder, albeit a nice one to have with injury-prone J.D. Drew in right field. On the other hand, should the Bo-Sox lose out on signing those big guns, Hermida could start in left field everyday. Could Boston be where Hermida finally breaks out in 2010?

Ray Guilfoyle has been blogging at Fake Teams, an SBNation site, for a year and a half, focusing player analysis, draft strategies, and the impact of rumors and transactions for fantasy sports leagues.  Ray participates in 3 NL-only fantasy/roto leagues, including one that has been around almost 15 years.