MLB Fantasy Prospects

Top 25 Fantasy Keepers Under 25-Years-Old: Part II

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

I know you’ve been waiting patiently for the rest of this list, so let’s get right to it:

13) Billy Butler (1B, Kansas City Royals) Age: 23, ADP: 81

• (14th among 1B)

It’s hard to believe that Butler, already entering his third season, is still just 23-years-old. This may be bad news for fantasy owners, however, as it means he might still be a year or two away from fulfilling his power potential. I wanted to project Butler for 25+ homeruns, but similarly to Adam Jones, his low ISO and high GB% are knocking him down slightly in my rankings. I still like Butler to hit .315-20-90, but that makes him more of a corner infielder than a solid, starting fantasy first baseman. The ninth round is a little high for Butler, and it’s worth noting that you can wait seven or eight rounds and get around 75% of his production from Todd Helton or Nick Johnson.

14) Jon Danks (SP, Chicago White Sox) Age: 24, ADP: 162

• (38th among SP)

Danks barely qualifies for this list, as he turns 25 a week into the season, and is still slowly evolving into a stellar fantasy option. Danks’ low BABIP is concerning, but it’s consistent, which relieves some of my fears. He’s now turned in back-to-back, solid seasons, and I like him to build on that success in 2010. I project Danks will go 14-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 160 K’s, making him a solid fourth fantasy starter and an excellent value for the seventeenth round.

15) Jair Jurrjens (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 24, ADP: 144

• (32nd among SP)

Jurrjens helped me on several teams last season, and I think he has a bright future. Nevertheless, I believe he’s in for a decent regression this season. Jurrjens was benefited last year by a very low BABIP of .273, and that, along with his alarmingly low K/BB rate of 2.03, warn me that his WHIP is about to skyrocket. He’ll still be worth owning as a fourth fantasy pitcher, and I expect a line of 14-10 with a 3.75 ERA and 140 K’s, but Brian Anderson, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Zambrano are just some of the many pitchers with lower ADP’s who I prefer to Jurrjens this year.

16) Andrew McCutchen (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) Age: 23, ADP: 8

• (26th among OF)

McCutchen is, in my opinion, an overdraft in the ninth round, and should not be taken ahead of players such as Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Torii Hunter or Jay Bruce, all of whom have lower ADPs. I know that speed is at a premium in the fantasy world, and I do think McCutchen will swipe 30 bags this year, but I don’t consider him to be a Top 100 player, yet. I see McCutchen hitting .280-12-65 with 30 SB, which makes him a solid third outfielder, but not someone I’d take over a second starter or comparable middle infielder.

17) Elvis Andrus (SS, Texas Rangers) Age: 22, ADP: 149

• (12th among SS)

Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera (148), and Yunel Escobar (153) are all ranked within 5 spots of each other, which shows that it’s basically a crapshoot between which of the three will produce the most this season. Personally, I believe it will be Andrus, as his 2009 BABIP of .305 is likely to improve. Hitting in a superior offense, he’ll probably score the most runs of the three. I like Andrus to hit .280-5-55 with 40 SB with 90 R, making him slightly undervalued as a current fifteenth round pick.

18) Homer Bailey (SP, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 23, ADP: 278

• (77th among SP)

Bailey is another semi-sleeper who I’m very high on, and have been grabbing in my leagues on a regular basis. After struggling for the better part of three seasons, everything finally clicked for Bailey last season, as he finished on a tear. Watch for him to continue that success and be a viable option as a fifth fantasy starter this season, going 14-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 170 Ks. Once Bailey lowers his 4.13 BB/9 ratio, I believe he will be a Top 30 fantasy pitcher. For now, however, grab Bailey late in drafts, where he’ll be going after the likes of Kevin Correia, Gil Meche, and Joe Blanton, and get all you can out of him before Dusty Baker inevitably blows out his arm.

19) Carlos Gonzalez (OF, Colorado Rockies) Age: 24, ADP: 122

• (41st among OF)

Gonzalez was one of my favorite sleepers headed into the year, but apparently others have caught on as well, as his ADP now has him as a thirteenth round pick. Gonzalez is a potential 20 HR/20 SB player. If the Rockies wise up and give him 500 ABs this season, I think he can reach those numbers. Overall, I like Car-Go to hit .285-21-75 with 20 stolen bases, making him a very nice fourth/borderline third fantasy outfielder. Gonzalez’s ADP is fine for now, but if he creeps into the tenth or eleventh round, he’s not worth reaching for.

20) Dexter Fowler (OF, Colorado Rockies) Age: 24, ADP: 259

• (63rd among OF)

I was shocked to see Fowler have such a low ADP, as anyone capable of stealing 30 bases is usually gone before round 26. A poor man’s Andrew McCutchen, Fowler could provide 80% of McCutchen’s value, but taken 10 to 15 rounds later. I project Fowler to hit .275-5-50 with 30 SB and 95 R, making him a terrific fifth fantasy outfielder and quite the bargain.

21) Colby Rasmus (OF, St. Louis Cardinals) Age: 23, ADP: 90

• (52nd among OF)

Rasmus represents another rare case where I agree with a player’s ADP. He does strike out too much, and if he doesn’t rectify that, he’ll never reach his full fantasy potential. But while Rasmus struggled due to his lack of patience, his mundane rookie campaign was also due to bad luck, as his BABIP was just .282 and among the worst in the majors. I believe Rasmus can hit .270-18-70 this year with 14 SB, making him a good fifth fantasy outfielder at a reasonable draft slot. He should also score plenty of runs batting ahead of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

22) Alcides Escobar (SS, Milwaukee Brewers) Age 23, ADP: 241

• (19th among SS)

Escobar is unproven, but I think he’s quite a steal for fantasy owners this season, as I see him as a Top 12 fantasy shortstop. I’m projecting Escobar’s line to be .285-4-50 with 40 SB and 80 R, making him another bargain for the 25th round. Better known shortstops such as Marco Scutaro and Erick Aybar are being drafted first, but neither can provide the kind of standings-altering speed that Escobar can. He might have to take some lumps as a rookie, but I would feel very comfortable going into the season with Escobar as my starting middle infielder.

23) Johnny Cueto (SP, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 24, ADP: 219

• (57th among SP)

A strikeout machine in the minors, Cueto saw his K/9 drop from 8.17 to 6.93 last season, diminishing his fantasy value. Cueto still has electric stuff, however, and while his punch-outs have been fading, his walks have followed suit. Cueto may never develop into the No. 2 fantasy starter I thought he’d be, but I still like him as a No. 5, capable of going 14-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 180 Ks. Cueto is being taken after no-upside veterans like Randy Wolf and Andy Pettitte. While he’s far from a sure thing, I would take Cueto’s potential over the safety of a washed-up veteran any day.

24) Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/SS, Cleveland Indians) Age: 24, ADP: 148

• (11th among SS, 12th among 2B)

I’ve never been a Cabrera believer. His ADP is ridiculous, but I have to put him on this list due to position scarcity. Cabrera has regression written all over him, as his BABIP in 2009 was a lucky .360, while his stolen base total was more than twice as high as it was in 2008. I have Cabrera falling to .280-4-50 with 11 SB this year, and he won’t score many runs in Cleveland’s anemic offense. I don’t see Cabrera being much of a fantasy contributor this year, so I will be looking to avoid him on draft day.

25) Brian Matusz (SP, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 23, ADP: 302

• (ND among SP)

This pick was almost Detroit righty, Rick Porcello, but I opted with Matusz due to Porcello’s low BABIP and paltry 4.69 K/9 ratio. The fact that Matusz is in the AL East scares me, but all of his other numbers point to immediate big league success. Matusz is my early favorite for AL ROY, and I think he will be a nice No.5 fantasy starter this season, going 13-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 170 Ks. Matusz is currently being drafted in the 31st round, so you really have nothing to lose by taking a flier on him.

Just Missed The Cut

26) Rick Porcello (SP, Detroit Tigers) Age: 21, ADP: 205

• (52nd among SP)

27) Julio Borbon (OF, Texas Rangers) Age: 24, ADP: 169

• (45th among OF)

28) Travis Snider (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) Age: 22, ADP: 223

• (56th among OF)

29) David Price (SP, Tampa Bay Rays) Age: 24, ADP: 143

• (43rd among SP)

30) Chris Coghlan (OF, Florida Marlins) Age: 24, ADP: 201

• (52nd among OF)

Follow this link to see 1 thru 12...

2010 MLBFP Divisional Series: Top 10 American League Central Fantasy Prospects

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

When players such as Miguel Sano, Mike Moustakas, Nick Hagadone, Ben Revere and Jarred Mitchell aren’t included among a Division’s Top 10 Fantasy Prospects, you know that division is absolutely loaded. The American League Central has been the hardest division to rank so far, and has an intriguing mix of power arms, toolsy outfielders, and best of all, offensively gifted catchers. By 2013, the AL Central could have five of fantasy baseball’s Top 10 backstops, and that alone should make every owner read carefully.

The Top 10

1) Carlos Santana (C, Cleveland Indians)  ETA: Mid-2010

Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell. Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir. One day, the Dodgers’ decision to trade Santana away for Casey Blake may be considered just as bad as some of these epically lopsided trades. One of the better hitters in the minors, Santana hit .290-23-97 in 428 ABs last season in Double-A. Offensively, Santana has the ability to be a better version of former Indian Victor Martinez: a rare catcher who can also anchor the middle of an order. Perennial lines of .300-25-90 are well within his reach, which would make him a Top 5 fantasy catcher. Buster Posey gets more attention, but there’s a chance that Santana could end up being the better fantasy prospect. Santana will probably spend half the season in Triple-A, but should replace Lou Marson as the Indians’ everyday catcher by the trading deadline – at the latest. I wouldn’t draft Santana in mixed redraft leagues just yet, but AL-only owners who can afford the roster spot, should take a late round flier on him. Once he is called up, Santana is likely to be more productive than fringe fantasy starters like A.J. Pierzynski and Yadier Molina, and should be picked up in all leagues.

2) Tyler Flowers (C, Chicago White Sox)  ETA: Mid-2010

Between Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, and Flowers, the AL Central will be providing fantasy owners with three of their Top 10 fantasy catcher options for the next several years. A big righty with huge power, Flowers’ bat dictates that he should start now, but his defensive shortcomings will likely keep him in the minors for at least another half-season. Flowers should post a .350-plus OBP at the major league level, to go along with a line of .280-25-80, making him a very similar player to Brian McCann. Flowers is largely overshadowed by some of the sexier catching prospects in the game, but his bat is arguably the most major-league ready. He may have to move off catcher some day, but until that time comes, he has tremendous fantasy value. Pierzynski is currently blocking Flowers, but his contract is up after this season, and Flowers should be starting every day by 2011. Flower should go undrafted to start 2010, but will likely be called up at some point during the season, and will be a Top 10 fantasy catcher as soon as he receives any kind of regular playing time.

3) Aaron Hicks (OF, Minnesota Twins)  ETA: Mid-2012

At first glance, fantasy owners may wonder why they should pay any attention to Hicks. There was nothing particularly impressive about his minor league stats last year, and he’s still at least two seasons away from seeing the majors. But while Hicks has yet to post gaudy numbers, the combination of his freakish athleticism, young age, and advanced approach at the plate, give him one of the highest upsides of anyone in the minor leagues. A switch-hitter, Hicks has plus-speed and tremendous patience, as well as quick wrists that should allow him to hit for a decently high average in the majors. The only tool Hicks has not shown yet is power, but most scouts believe he will develop this ability as he grows older. The easy comparison for Hicks would be former Twins’ center fielder Torii Hunter, but Hicks has a touch more speed and should post much higher OBPs. Instead, I see Hicks as a more athletic version of Bobby Abreu: a five-category fantasy producer capable of hitting .290-20-90 with 25-plus stolen bases annually. That kind of potential means Hicks is a must-have in all dynasty leagues, even though his owners will likely have to wait a while for any major league production.

4) Jacob Turner (SP, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2012

Turner was, in my opinion, the third best pitcher in the 2009 draft, behind only Stephen Strasburg and Tyler Matzek. A big, flame-throwing righty, Turner has everything scouts look for in a pitching prospect. Turner’s fastball sits at 93-94 miles per hour, but he can dial it up 97-98 when necessary. He also has a potential plus-curveball and is developing a two-seamer and a changeup. His size, arsenal, and durability remind me a lot of John Lackey, and that’s the type of upside that Turner has. Turner didn’t pitch at all in 2009 because of how late he signed, but will probably start 2010 in a full-season league. Tigers pitchers have a way of advancing quickly, and Turner has the stuff to blow through the low minors with relative ease. He won’t reach the majors as quickly as future teammate Rick Porcello did, but should still be ready faster than other pitchers his age. Once he establishes himself, I like Turner to grab 15-18 wins a year, with a sub-4.00 ERA and 180 strikeouts, making him a fantastic second fantasy starter. Turner is a great pick in dynasty leagues, where he might still be available because of late-signing date last year.

5) Mike Montgomery (SP, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: Mid-2011

The ultra-competitive Montgomery was a beast in the minor leagues last season, going 6-4 with a 2.21 ERA and a 7.8 K/9 ratio between High and Low-A. Armed with two curveballs and a developing change-up, Montgomery combines the typical “finesse lefty” stuff with an above average fastball that sits at 94 mph and has room to improve. Montgomery doesn’t profile as a “true ace,” but should fit into the front-end of a major league rotation and the middle of a fantasy one. Once in the majors, I see Montgomery winning around 15 game per season, while posting a sub-4.25 ERA and around 150 strikeouts, making him a Mark Buehrle-type fantasy starter. Montgomery will likely start the season at Double-A, putting him on track for an appearance sometime in 2011. Once he gets there, he could join Zack Greinke and fellow prospect Aaron Crow to give the Royals the best rotation they’ve had in quite a while. Montgomery isn’t a must own in dynasty leagues, but is certainly a nice pick to fill out any minor league rotation.

6) Lonnie Chisenhall (3B, Cleveland Indians)  ETA: 2011

Chisenhell skyrocketed up most prospect lists this year after a very good 2009 season. Chisenhall has one of the prettiest swings in the minors, and his short, effortless left-handed stroke reminds me a lot of J.D Drew’s. Chisenhall doesn’t project to be a prototypical offensive third-baseman, as he should hit for a high average with a good OBP, but will be more of a doubles hitter than a real power threat. Chisenhall did show surprising power last year, hitting 22 homeruns between Single and Double-A, but scouts believe this may be an aberration. Young for his leagues, Chisenhall could reach Triple-A this season – at just 21 years old. His fantasy value is difficult to project, as he should contribute solidly in BA, Rs, and RBIs, but may not be much of a factor as far as power or speed is concerned. If Chisenhall proves that his 2009 power was not a fluke, he would be a great fantasy asset, capable of hitting .300-25-80. For now, however, I believe Chisenhall may be a better major league prospect than a fantasy one, and unless I had room, I wouldn’t be itchy to grab him in dynasty leagues. Watch Chisenhall closely, and if he starts mashing again, pick him up ASAP.

7) Michael Brantley (OF, Cleveland Indians)  ETA: 2010

Up until around 24 hours ago, when news broke that Russell Branyan signed with the Tribe, I love Brantley as a fantasy sleeper for 2010 and had him fourth on this list. But the Branyan signing will likely force Matt LaPorta to left field, which will significantly hurt Brantley’s playing time. An all-speed, no-power hitter, Brantley is similar to Michael Bourn. If given 500 ABs, Brantley could hit .300-2-50 with 40-plus stolen bases while batting atop Cleveland’s order. Unlike Bourn, however, Brantley has posted consistently excellent OBP numbers, meaning he will score more runs and will have the opportunity to steal more than Bourn as well. Brantley is still a good late-round pick in all leagues, and I like him as a great source of stolen bases if he gets regular playing time. That’s a big IF, however, and unless LaPorta really struggles, Grady Sizemore gets hurt, or Branyan moves back to third base (where he hasn’t played since 2007), I’m not sure Brantley will see enough action to be a significant fantasy producer. It’s not quite as bad as the Giants signing Bengie Molina to block Buster Posey, but fantasy owners should be pretty angry with GM Mark Shapiro right now.

8) Austin Jackson (OF, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2010

Jackson was once considered a future five-category fantasy stud in the Matt Kemp mold, but he hasn’t shown any real ability to hit for power yet, as his season high for homers was 13 back in 2007. A young, fast, athletic center fielder, Jackson’s stellar center field defense makes him a better real prospect than a fantasy one. Jackson is a prototypical leadoff hitter, and should be able to consistently hit around .300 once he’s established himself in the majors. Detroit’s only other center field option for 2010 is Clete Thomas, so Jackson should see significant playing time this year. If he gets 500 ABs, I like him to hit .280-5-60 with 20 stolen bases and around 85 runs scored. If he’s a late bloomer and adds some power, Jackson has the potential to be a Top 30 fantasy outfielder. For now, however, Jackson profiles as a cheap source of stolen bases and a borderline fifth fantasy outfielder. Offensively, Jackson is pretty similar to Ryan Theriot, but Theriot is obviously more valuable because of position scarcity. He’s a good late pick in redraft leagues, as he’s very likely to contribute immediately.

9) Wilson Ramos (C, Minnesota Twins)  ETA: 2011

A potential Top 10 fantasy catcher in the AL Central? Stop me if this is sounding familiar. Ramos doesn’t have quite the raw power or Flowers, or the batting eye of Santana, but instead provides a nice balance of both. Ramos projects as a future four-category fantasy contributor, and I like him to be a better-hitting Bengie Molina-type offensive player, posting lines of .290-17-75 on a consistent basis in the majors. Ramos does have two flaws: he has been somewhat injury-prone, and he’s very impatient, but neither of these problems looks to slow him down in the long run. If the Twins don’t resign Joe Mauer, Ramos is their insurance policy, and should provide about half the value at around a hundredth of the cost. Still, something tells me the Twins aren’t going to let Mauer go just to make room for Ramos. Mauer resigning would make Ramos one of the most intriguing trade pieces in the minors, and big market teams without a clear future behind the plate, such as the Red Sox or Mets, may be interested in acquiring him. Ramos is a nice grab in dynasty leagues, as he should be contributing to fantasy rosters by next season.

10) Aaron Crow (SP, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: Late-2010

Crow is advanced for a prospect, as he spent last season pitching in an independent league after refusing to sign with the Washington Nationals, who selected him in the 2008 draft. Crow’s arsenal includes an above-average fastball, a very good slider, and a work-in-progress changeup that will be important for him to refine if he wants to succeed as a starter. If Crowe can stay as a starter, he profiles as a borderline No. 2, and an excellent No. 3 starter. He won’t be an absolute strikeout machine, but should strikeout around 170 batters a year, to go along with a sub-4.00 ERA and 15-16 wins. Those Ryan Dempster-type numbers would make Crow a Top 50 fantasy starting pitcher, and a fine third or fourth pitcher in fantasy rotations. If Crow winds up in the bullpen, he could be a Top 10 fantasy closer, although Joakim Soria would block him for the foreseeable future. Crow will likely get a cup of coffee at the end of the season, but won’t contribute any real fantasy value until 2011. He’s a great pick in dynasty leagues for owners concerned with short-term value, as he shouldn’t have too much of a learning curve once he reaches the majors.

The Next 5

11) Kyle Gibson (SP, Minnesota Twins)  ETA: 2012

Gibson does have a troubling injury history, but should soar through the Twins system if healthy. If everything goes well, Gibson could be major league ready in just two years, and is a potential fantasy ace in the Dan Haren mold.

12) Casey Crosby (SP, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2013

Crosby is a ways away, but Tiger fans can dream of a rotation with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Jacob Turner, and Crosby in the not-so-distant future. Crosby has phenomenal stuff, and could develop into an Andy Pettitte-like No.2 starter. Still relatively unknown, Crosby is a great pick in dynasty leagues.

13) Eric Hosmer (1B, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: mid-2011

Hosmer struggled last season, but was hampered by injuries and poor eyesight, neither of which should be a problem moving forward. Hosmer’s offensive ceiling is pretty similar to current Royal Billy Butler, and if he’s available in dynasty leagues, grab him and watch him rebound.

14) Wil Myers (C, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: 2013

Myers is still mostly projection at this point, but he hit .369 in rookie ball as an 18-year-old last season. He will advance slowly, but could be yet another impact bat behind the plate brought to you by the AL Central. Grab him in dynasty leagues now.

15) Scott Sizemore (2B, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2010

There are tons of prospects with much higher upsides, but Sizemore will likely start in 2010 and provide value in AL only leagues. Sizemore profiles as a Mark Loretta-type second baseman who should post high averages but offer relatively little else to fantasy owners. Still, he’s not bad middle infield insurance on a fantasy bench.

Is Noel Arguelles (Kansas City Royals, SP) the Next Cuban Sensation?

Back on December 5th, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports broke the story when the Kansas City Royals signed little known Cuban, Noel Arguelles:

The small-market Kansas City Royals are betting big on a free agent they’ve seen pitch only a handful of times.

Noel Arguelles, a 19-year-old left-hander who last year defected from Cuba, agreed to a five-year, $7 million major league deal with the Royals on Saturday, according to a club source. Arguelles can earn up to $2 million in incentives as well.

We contacted our friend Cubano, who manages a blog aptly named Cuban Ball Players, to give us a scouting report on the KC’s big investment. He currently has Arguelles ranked as the 13th best Cuban prospect potentially available to MLB teams.

Noel Argüelles (6’3”, 210lbs.) is a product of the Havana pitching school. Havana has had the best pitching in Cuba lately; thus, young Argüelles was relegated to the bullpen and used when games were out of reach, especially during his rookie campaign. Argüelles made the Cuban Junior team and left the team during the 2007 Junior World Cup in Canada, alongside José Iglesias (Iglesias signed a four-year, $8.2 million deal with the Boston Red Sox and impressed scouts in the Arizona Fall League).

Argüelles should improve his control as he pitches regularly in the USA. Argüelles reached 94 MPH in Cuba. He also hit 94 MPH in while training in Miami, according to a Cuban Ball Players source.

Argüelles debuted in the 46th Cuban season. The Cuban National Series usually runs from November through March. Therefore, the 46th season started in 2006 and ended in 2007.  In his rookie year, Argüelles walked (26) more batters than innings pitched (23.2). Oftentimes, young Cuban players struggle in the Cuban League after coming from the junior ranks. In his second season, Argüelles control problems continued. Argüelles would have benefited greatly by pitching in the Cuban Developmental League for 2 seasons.

Argüelles should start in A-ball so he can pitch every fifth day and improve his control as he logs more innings.  He needs to work on his secondary pitches. Argüelles throws a 94 MPH fastball, slider, and a rudimentary curveball, all while using a flawless, three-quarters delivery.  His father was a goalkeeper for the Cuban Soccer National Team and is a big guy. For that reason, there is a high probability Argüelles will keep getting bigger and stronger

Thought to be a consolation price for any team unable to sign Aroldis Chapman, Arguelles actually got his payday before his highly-touted countryman. However, it seems as if it could be awhile before he joins Chapman in the majors. It’s just too early to tell whether the Royals have made a wise investment. Nonetheless, if you’re in a deep dynasty league, the big price tag is probably a sign that Arguelles is worth stashing on your roster.