MLB Fantasy Prospects

2010 MLBFP Divisional Series: Top 10 American League Central Fantasy Prospects

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

When players such as Miguel Sano, Mike Moustakas, Nick Hagadone, Ben Revere and Jarred Mitchell aren’t included among a Division’s Top 10 Fantasy Prospects, you know that division is absolutely loaded. The American League Central has been the hardest division to rank so far, and has an intriguing mix of power arms, toolsy outfielders, and best of all, offensively gifted catchers. By 2013, the AL Central could have five of fantasy baseball’s Top 10 backstops, and that alone should make every owner read carefully.

The Top 10

1) Carlos Santana (C, Cleveland Indians)  ETA: Mid-2010

Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell. Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz. Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir. One day, the Dodgers’ decision to trade Santana away for Casey Blake may be considered just as bad as some of these epically lopsided trades. One of the better hitters in the minors, Santana hit .290-23-97 in 428 ABs last season in Double-A. Offensively, Santana has the ability to be a better version of former Indian Victor Martinez: a rare catcher who can also anchor the middle of an order. Perennial lines of .300-25-90 are well within his reach, which would make him a Top 5 fantasy catcher. Buster Posey gets more attention, but there’s a chance that Santana could end up being the better fantasy prospect. Santana will probably spend half the season in Triple-A, but should replace Lou Marson as the Indians’ everyday catcher by the trading deadline – at the latest. I wouldn’t draft Santana in mixed redraft leagues just yet, but AL-only owners who can afford the roster spot, should take a late round flier on him. Once he is called up, Santana is likely to be more productive than fringe fantasy starters like A.J. Pierzynski and Yadier Molina, and should be picked up in all leagues.

2) Tyler Flowers (C, Chicago White Sox)  ETA: Mid-2010

Between Joe Mauer, Carlos Santana, and Flowers, the AL Central will be providing fantasy owners with three of their Top 10 fantasy catcher options for the next several years. A big righty with huge power, Flowers’ bat dictates that he should start now, but his defensive shortcomings will likely keep him in the minors for at least another half-season. Flowers should post a .350-plus OBP at the major league level, to go along with a line of .280-25-80, making him a very similar player to Brian McCann. Flowers is largely overshadowed by some of the sexier catching prospects in the game, but his bat is arguably the most major-league ready. He may have to move off catcher some day, but until that time comes, he has tremendous fantasy value. Pierzynski is currently blocking Flowers, but his contract is up after this season, and Flowers should be starting every day by 2011. Flower should go undrafted to start 2010, but will likely be called up at some point during the season, and will be a Top 10 fantasy catcher as soon as he receives any kind of regular playing time.

3) Aaron Hicks (OF, Minnesota Twins)  ETA: Mid-2012

At first glance, fantasy owners may wonder why they should pay any attention to Hicks. There was nothing particularly impressive about his minor league stats last year, and he’s still at least two seasons away from seeing the majors. But while Hicks has yet to post gaudy numbers, the combination of his freakish athleticism, young age, and advanced approach at the plate, give him one of the highest upsides of anyone in the minor leagues. A switch-hitter, Hicks has plus-speed and tremendous patience, as well as quick wrists that should allow him to hit for a decently high average in the majors. The only tool Hicks has not shown yet is power, but most scouts believe he will develop this ability as he grows older. The easy comparison for Hicks would be former Twins’ center fielder Torii Hunter, but Hicks has a touch more speed and should post much higher OBPs. Instead, I see Hicks as a more athletic version of Bobby Abreu: a five-category fantasy producer capable of hitting .290-20-90 with 25-plus stolen bases annually. That kind of potential means Hicks is a must-have in all dynasty leagues, even though his owners will likely have to wait a while for any major league production.

4) Jacob Turner (SP, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2012

Turner was, in my opinion, the third best pitcher in the 2009 draft, behind only Stephen Strasburg and Tyler Matzek. A big, flame-throwing righty, Turner has everything scouts look for in a pitching prospect. Turner’s fastball sits at 93-94 miles per hour, but he can dial it up 97-98 when necessary. He also has a potential plus-curveball and is developing a two-seamer and a changeup. His size, arsenal, and durability remind me a lot of John Lackey, and that’s the type of upside that Turner has. Turner didn’t pitch at all in 2009 because of how late he signed, but will probably start 2010 in a full-season league. Tigers pitchers have a way of advancing quickly, and Turner has the stuff to blow through the low minors with relative ease. He won’t reach the majors as quickly as future teammate Rick Porcello did, but should still be ready faster than other pitchers his age. Once he establishes himself, I like Turner to grab 15-18 wins a year, with a sub-4.00 ERA and 180 strikeouts, making him a fantastic second fantasy starter. Turner is a great pick in dynasty leagues, where he might still be available because of late-signing date last year.

5) Mike Montgomery (SP, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: Mid-2011

The ultra-competitive Montgomery was a beast in the minor leagues last season, going 6-4 with a 2.21 ERA and a 7.8 K/9 ratio between High and Low-A. Armed with two curveballs and a developing change-up, Montgomery combines the typical “finesse lefty” stuff with an above average fastball that sits at 94 mph and has room to improve. Montgomery doesn’t profile as a “true ace,” but should fit into the front-end of a major league rotation and the middle of a fantasy one. Once in the majors, I see Montgomery winning around 15 game per season, while posting a sub-4.25 ERA and around 150 strikeouts, making him a Mark Buehrle-type fantasy starter. Montgomery will likely start the season at Double-A, putting him on track for an appearance sometime in 2011. Once he gets there, he could join Zack Greinke and fellow prospect Aaron Crow to give the Royals the best rotation they’ve had in quite a while. Montgomery isn’t a must own in dynasty leagues, but is certainly a nice pick to fill out any minor league rotation.

6) Lonnie Chisenhall (3B, Cleveland Indians)  ETA: 2011

Chisenhell skyrocketed up most prospect lists this year after a very good 2009 season. Chisenhall has one of the prettiest swings in the minors, and his short, effortless left-handed stroke reminds me a lot of J.D Drew’s. Chisenhall doesn’t project to be a prototypical offensive third-baseman, as he should hit for a high average with a good OBP, but will be more of a doubles hitter than a real power threat. Chisenhall did show surprising power last year, hitting 22 homeruns between Single and Double-A, but scouts believe this may be an aberration. Young for his leagues, Chisenhall could reach Triple-A this season – at just 21 years old. His fantasy value is difficult to project, as he should contribute solidly in BA, Rs, and RBIs, but may not be much of a factor as far as power or speed is concerned. If Chisenhall proves that his 2009 power was not a fluke, he would be a great fantasy asset, capable of hitting .300-25-80. For now, however, I believe Chisenhall may be a better major league prospect than a fantasy one, and unless I had room, I wouldn’t be itchy to grab him in dynasty leagues. Watch Chisenhall closely, and if he starts mashing again, pick him up ASAP.

7) Michael Brantley (OF, Cleveland Indians)  ETA: 2010

Up until around 24 hours ago, when news broke that Russell Branyan signed with the Tribe, I love Brantley as a fantasy sleeper for 2010 and had him fourth on this list. But the Branyan signing will likely force Matt LaPorta to left field, which will significantly hurt Brantley’s playing time. An all-speed, no-power hitter, Brantley is similar to Michael Bourn. If given 500 ABs, Brantley could hit .300-2-50 with 40-plus stolen bases while batting atop Cleveland’s order. Unlike Bourn, however, Brantley has posted consistently excellent OBP numbers, meaning he will score more runs and will have the opportunity to steal more than Bourn as well. Brantley is still a good late-round pick in all leagues, and I like him as a great source of stolen bases if he gets regular playing time. That’s a big IF, however, and unless LaPorta really struggles, Grady Sizemore gets hurt, or Branyan moves back to third base (where he hasn’t played since 2007), I’m not sure Brantley will see enough action to be a significant fantasy producer. It’s not quite as bad as the Giants signing Bengie Molina to block Buster Posey, but fantasy owners should be pretty angry with GM Mark Shapiro right now.

8) Austin Jackson (OF, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2010

Jackson was once considered a future five-category fantasy stud in the Matt Kemp mold, but he hasn’t shown any real ability to hit for power yet, as his season high for homers was 13 back in 2007. A young, fast, athletic center fielder, Jackson’s stellar center field defense makes him a better real prospect than a fantasy one. Jackson is a prototypical leadoff hitter, and should be able to consistently hit around .300 once he’s established himself in the majors. Detroit’s only other center field option for 2010 is Clete Thomas, so Jackson should see significant playing time this year. If he gets 500 ABs, I like him to hit .280-5-60 with 20 stolen bases and around 85 runs scored. If he’s a late bloomer and adds some power, Jackson has the potential to be a Top 30 fantasy outfielder. For now, however, Jackson profiles as a cheap source of stolen bases and a borderline fifth fantasy outfielder. Offensively, Jackson is pretty similar to Ryan Theriot, but Theriot is obviously more valuable because of position scarcity. He’s a good late pick in redraft leagues, as he’s very likely to contribute immediately.

9) Wilson Ramos (C, Minnesota Twins)  ETA: 2011

A potential Top 10 fantasy catcher in the AL Central? Stop me if this is sounding familiar. Ramos doesn’t have quite the raw power or Flowers, or the batting eye of Santana, but instead provides a nice balance of both. Ramos projects as a future four-category fantasy contributor, and I like him to be a better-hitting Bengie Molina-type offensive player, posting lines of .290-17-75 on a consistent basis in the majors. Ramos does have two flaws: he has been somewhat injury-prone, and he’s very impatient, but neither of these problems looks to slow him down in the long run. If the Twins don’t resign Joe Mauer, Ramos is their insurance policy, and should provide about half the value at around a hundredth of the cost. Still, something tells me the Twins aren’t going to let Mauer go just to make room for Ramos. Mauer resigning would make Ramos one of the most intriguing trade pieces in the minors, and big market teams without a clear future behind the plate, such as the Red Sox or Mets, may be interested in acquiring him. Ramos is a nice grab in dynasty leagues, as he should be contributing to fantasy rosters by next season.

10) Aaron Crow (SP, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: Late-2010

Crow is advanced for a prospect, as he spent last season pitching in an independent league after refusing to sign with the Washington Nationals, who selected him in the 2008 draft. Crow’s arsenal includes an above-average fastball, a very good slider, and a work-in-progress changeup that will be important for him to refine if he wants to succeed as a starter. If Crowe can stay as a starter, he profiles as a borderline No. 2, and an excellent No. 3 starter. He won’t be an absolute strikeout machine, but should strikeout around 170 batters a year, to go along with a sub-4.00 ERA and 15-16 wins. Those Ryan Dempster-type numbers would make Crow a Top 50 fantasy starting pitcher, and a fine third or fourth pitcher in fantasy rotations. If Crow winds up in the bullpen, he could be a Top 10 fantasy closer, although Joakim Soria would block him for the foreseeable future. Crow will likely get a cup of coffee at the end of the season, but won’t contribute any real fantasy value until 2011. He’s a great pick in dynasty leagues for owners concerned with short-term value, as he shouldn’t have too much of a learning curve once he reaches the majors.

The Next 5

11) Kyle Gibson (SP, Minnesota Twins)  ETA: 2012

Gibson does have a troubling injury history, but should soar through the Twins system if healthy. If everything goes well, Gibson could be major league ready in just two years, and is a potential fantasy ace in the Dan Haren mold.

12) Casey Crosby (SP, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2013

Crosby is a ways away, but Tiger fans can dream of a rotation with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Jacob Turner, and Crosby in the not-so-distant future. Crosby has phenomenal stuff, and could develop into an Andy Pettitte-like No.2 starter. Still relatively unknown, Crosby is a great pick in dynasty leagues.

13) Eric Hosmer (1B, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: mid-2011

Hosmer struggled last season, but was hampered by injuries and poor eyesight, neither of which should be a problem moving forward. Hosmer’s offensive ceiling is pretty similar to current Royal Billy Butler, and if he’s available in dynasty leagues, grab him and watch him rebound.

14) Wil Myers (C, Kansas City Royals)  ETA: 2013

Myers is still mostly projection at this point, but he hit .369 in rookie ball as an 18-year-old last season. He will advance slowly, but could be yet another impact bat behind the plate brought to you by the AL Central. Grab him in dynasty leagues now.

15) Scott Sizemore (2B, Detroit Tigers)  ETA: 2010

There are tons of prospects with much higher upsides, but Sizemore will likely start in 2010 and provide value in AL only leagues. Sizemore profiles as a Mark Loretta-type second baseman who should post high averages but offer relatively little else to fantasy owners. Still, he’s not bad middle infield insurance on a fantasy bench.

Minding The Hot Stove: Johnny Damon to the Detroit Tigers? - The Fantasy Impact

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

With Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman reporting that Johnny Damon will either sign with the Detroit Tigers or Chicago White Sox, let’s take a look at what will happen if the outfielder signs with the offensively-starved Tigers.

Impact on Damon’s Fantasy Value

Damon is likely to see regression in his power numbers no matter where he winds up, but Comerica Park would have an especially negative effect on his power. It’s 330 feet to the right field wall in Comerica (compared to 316 feet in Yankee Stadium), but more importantly, Comerica lacks the wind tunnel that sucked so many right field fly balls into the stands at Yankee Stadium. Damon hit 17 of his 24 homers at Yankee Stadium in 2009, and if he’s playing 81 games in pitcher-friendly Comerica, instead of the bandbox in the Bronx, that total will fall to 10-13 homers, which is more in line with his career average.

Damon’s other numbers should remain fairly consistent. He will hit anywhere between .280 and .300, will steal 10-15 bases, and will probably bat first in Detroit’s lineup, meaning he will score 90-100 runs. But if Damon hits .280-10-70 with 10 stolen bases, he’s essentially a glorified Ryan Sweeney, and not someone worth selecting in the first 18 rounds of a mixed league draft. In short, given his age, injury history, and probable drop-off in power, Damon is a player I will avoid on draft day if he signs with the Tigers.

Impact on other Tigers

Comerica has a very spacious outfield, and usually grades out as one of the better pitchers’ ballparks in the majors. But those big gaps can turn from a pitcher’s best friend into his worst nightmare if the players manning them can’t run. Damon, once a phenomenal center fielder, should be a DH at this point in his career, but Carlos Guillen already occupies that spot in Detroit. If Damon signs with the Tigers, he is likely to play left field, while Magglio Ordonez will play right, and either Clete Thomas or Austin Jackson will play center. Damon posted a UZR of -9.2 in the comparatively smaller left field of Yankee Stadium last season, and Ordonez posted a solid but unspectacular UZR of -2.9 in right. That’s going to put a lot of stress on whoever mans center field for the Tigers in 2010. Thomas and Jackson are both plus-fielders, and eliminating one of them from Detroit’s outfield in favor of the aging Damon will undoubtedly have a negative effect on the Tigers’ pitchers.

Damon will be taking playing time away from either Thomas or Jackson. The former is a fantasy non-factor, but Jackson, if given 500 at-bats, could be a source of 25-plus stolen bases. James Schmehl of MLive.com envisions a scenario where Austin Jackson doesn't crack the 25-man roster:

Damon’s presence could also result in one of three things for [Ryan] Raburn. Raburn could transition into a full-time utility player, making scheduled starts at third, first, left and center field. He could also split time at DH with Guillen and, occasionally, Magglio. Or, he could platoon in center with Thomas. The latter would likely result in rookie Austin Jackson not making the 25-man roster.

Johnny Damon could have a positive effect on the hitters directly below him, however, as he is likely to get on base far more often than Jackson, who would likely lead off if the season started today. The 2-3-4 hitters in Detroit’s lineup currently project as Scott Sizemore, Ordonez, and Miguel Cabrera. If Damon signs with the Tigers, they will each have two to six more RBIs in 2010.

In conclusion, Damon signing with the Tigers wouldn’t be very helpful to the owners of Tigers’ pitchers, Austin Jackson, or Damon himself. He may marginally increase the value of the hitters directly behind him in the line-up, but overall, if Damon goes to Detroit, he will be doing a disservice to fantasy owners.

MLB Fantasy Prospects - Average Draft Position Analysis - 2010 Impact Rookies

Contributed by Michael Rathburn, blogging at Around the Cooler

Finding sleepers – especially impact rookies – is a fantasy baseball owners’ holy grail. With so much information out there these days, it is harder and harder to find a gem. Also, with teams forced to deal with salary constraints, players are being rushed to the majors a lot faster and their development can take a hit.

This is an analysis of the top eligible hitters for the American League/National League Rookie of the Year (“ROY”) award in 2010, along with an examination of their projected role and recommendations on whether you should draft them at their Average Draft Position (“ADP”) or pass on them. ROY eligibility is less than 130 at bats/50 innings pitched/45 days of service time. There were a few guys who just barely missed this list – Alcides Escobar, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, and Daniel Bard.

ADP’s are courtesy of Mock Draft Central with a sample size of 335 drafts from Jan 13 – Jan 29, 2010.

You can find the same ADP analysis for rookie pitchers at my site – Around the Cooler

Jason Heyward OF – Atlanta Braves

ADP: 317  Earliest: 184  Drafted: 19%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #1

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A/Starting RF in ATL

Analysis: If the 2007 draft were held today, Heyward would be the #1 pick – hands down. He has gone through the Atlanta minors like a hot knife through butter, getting better with each level. The temptation is there to slow him down and not rush him, but the talent just overcomes. His rise is very similar to Jay Bruce a couple years ago. The only knock on Heyward has been the nagging injuries, namely the hammy and bruised heel he suffered in the Arizona Fall League.

I’d prefer to see Heyward get those 200-300 at-bats in Triple-A, then come up June/July. Once he comes up, he won’t go back down. There is a little bit of a log-jam in that Matt Diaz did play well in 2009, but that won’t stop Atlanta from bringing up their most exciting hitting prospect since Andruw Jones.

I think the 317 ADP is right on with Heyward in comparing other OFs at the same spot. The key is watching the spring training battle with Diaz. If Heyward wins the spot, then you can project 450 ABs and the numbers should increase by 25%.

Projection: 350 ABs/15 HRs/50 RBIs/.280/.350/.450

Desmond Jennings OF – Tampa Bay Rays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 266  Drafted: 1.8%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking - #5

Opening Day Assignment: #1 OF in Triple-A

Analysis: In 2009, Jennings vaulted himself back into the upper echelon of prospects and lived up to the comparison of a Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton clone.

Jennings’ 2008 season was marred with injuries and question marks started to surface. Jennings put all those question marks to bed with a monster 2009 – 11 HRs/92 RBIs/.320 AVG/52 SBs between Double-A and Triple-A. Jennings probably needs the typical 300-400 at-bats in Triple-A, but a great sign for Jennings is the K/BB ratio. It’s almost 1:1. We’re not talking Cameron Maybin here; think Andrew McCutchen but slightly better. There’s certainly ADP value surrounding Jennings.

I can see the Rays bringing Jennings to the bigs on June 1. Jennings will be most valuable in AL-only league formats. He will at least become a great fourth OF after June 1.

Projection: 400 ABs/10 HRs/65 RBIs/25 SBs

Carlos Santana C – Cleveland Indians

ADP: 326  Earliest: 220  Drafted: 9.3%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #9

Opening Day Assignment: Starting C in Triple-A; with an outside shot to win the starting job in CLE

Analysis: Santana will always be noted for the trade in which the Indians sent Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The Dodgers already had Russell Martin and Blake has been huge for them. But the Indians got a Top 10 prospect and one of the top two catchers in the minor leagues. The path to the majors isn’t blocked for Santana, but 2 months worth of steady Triple-A pitching, to start the season, will do nothing but help his growth.

Just like Jennings, the thing I love about Santana is the K:BB ratio of 1:1.

There’s an outside shot the Indians will go with Santana on the Opening Day roster, but I doubt it. If you can afford to hold out on a catcher for 2 months, great, if not then you still have a guy who can play UTIL once he comes up. Or you can deal your starting C. Either way these numbers project a Top 15 catcher in mixed leagues and Top 10 in AL only leagues.

Projection: 350 ABs/10 HRs/55 RBIs/.265 AVG/.340 OBP/.450 SLG

 

Justin Smoak 1B – Texas Rangers

ADP: 231 (AL Only)  Drafted: 91.7%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #10

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B at Triple-A

Analysis: Smoak was the 11th pick in the 1st round by the Rangers in 2008. Comps to Mark Teixeira are inevitable. Smoak put up monster numbers at South Carolina but the power hasn’t translated to the minor leagues – as of yet. Also, Smoak only hit .244 at Triple-A last year in 200 at bats, so more seasoning is definitely needed.

The Rangers have a log-jam at 1B/DH right now with Chris Davis and Vladimir Guerrero. Smoak should be the starting 1B for the Rangers in 2011, or at worst the DH, provided the bat carries over this year. I would advise against drafting Smoak in any non-keeper leagues for 2010. If Davis or Guerrerro go down for an extended period of time, he‘s an immediate add in AL-only leagues.

Projection: September promotion; not much value in 2010 unless there’s an injury on the major league roster.

Buster Posey C – San Francisco Giants

ADP: 281  Earliest: 206  Drafted: 64%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #11

Opening Day Assignment: Backup C

Analysis: It sure was looking like Bengie Molina was a lock to sign with the Mets, and Posey would be handed the starting catcher job. But Molina resigned with the Giants, meaning Posey will have to wait until 2011 to receive the starting gig.

A nice #2 C play in NL-only leagues, but in mixed leagues you would only want to own Posey if you had Molina as well.

Projection: 300 at-bats and .280/.330/.420

Pedro Alvarez 1B/3B – Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 333  Earliest: 274  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #13

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A

Analysis: Alvarez was the #2 overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh was commended for drafting him despite his huge signing bonus demands. Alvarez didn’t set the world on fire in 2008, or early 2009, and there were rumors that he was out of shape. Then he got promoted to Double-A and a lot of people were scratching their heads. Well, no one is scratching anymore because he put up .333/.419/.590. There isn’t much of a roadblock at 1B for Alvarez with Jeff Clement. Clement could possibly be moved to C if Ryan Doumit is dealt.

I would like to see Alvarez get as many at-bats in Triple-A before getting the call to the Show. This will give him time to adjust to the pitching at that level, play 1B, and get into shape. Unless there is an injury or he’s hitting .350 at AAA, I think a Late 2010 callup is in order.

Projection: 200 ABs/12 HRs/30 RBIs/.275/.350/.500

Brett Wallace 1B/3B – Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 332  Earliest: 263  Drafted: 1.5%

Around The Cooler Prospect Ranking #23

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 1B in Triple-A / DH in TOR

Analysis: Wallace came over to the Jays in the deal where Michael Taylor went to Oakland. Taylor was expendable because the Jays were already set in the OF and Lyle Overbay is on a one-year deal. Also, the Jays have a void at DH if Travis Snider can hold up in RF. Wallace has been a part of many discussions – people either love him or hate him. I personally love the guy. He has a very wide lower base and I marvel a dude who has worked his tail off to try and stick at 3B. It does look like he will have to go to 1B / DH, but he’s a hitter. I will take a pure hitter over tools at this stage in the game especially in fantasy baseball. Wallace is a nice play if he lands on the 25-man Opening Day roster.

Projection: 500 ABs/15 HRs/65 RBIs/.280/.330/.450

Scott Sizemore 2B – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 326  Earliest: 200  Drafted: 7.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 2B in DET

Analysis: With the departure of Placido Polanco to the Phillies, the job is Sizemore’s. He did suffer a broken left ankle during the Arizona Fall League, but expects to be 100% by spring training. I’m not a fan of where he’s being drafted. Freddy Sanchez, Kelly Johnson, Luis Castillo, and Alberto Callaspo (a personal favorite) are all better 2nd basemen and being drafted below Sizemore. He’s a nice pick in AL only leagues but only as a MI. The problem with Sizemore is that getting 500 at-bats is not a guarantee with Ramon Santiago also in the mix.

Projection: 400 ABs/.265/.325/.390/10 HRs/60 RBIs/12 SBs

Austin Jackson OF – Detroit Tigers

ADP: 332  Earliest: 236  Drafted: 2.4%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting CF in DET

Analysis: Jackson was much hyped for the past few years as part of the Yankees organization. He was part of the Curtis Granderson trade that also involved the Diamondbacks. Detroit is hoping that Jackson can win the starting CF spot in spring training to help this deal payoff faster. Jackson is going to be a player who won’t have much fantasy value; but will be much more valuable in real baseball because of his defense. He will be a 4th/ 5^th OF in AL-only leagues at best.

Projection: 450 ABs/6 HRs/50 RBIs/18 SBs/.275/.330/.370

Eric Young, Jr UTIL – Colorado Rockies

ADP: 332  Earliest: 258  Drafted: 1.5%

Opening Day Assignment: Super Utility in COL (NL’s Chone Figgins)

Analysis: Son of EY – Eric Young; EY; EY2 or EYJr will enter 2010 as the UTIL guy for the Rockies. He doesn’t have a starting position home right now with Dexter Fowler in CF and Clint Barmes at 2B, but if either struggle – he will get some playing time. Young has been compared to Figgins because of his speed and versatility. I don’t know if Young will be able to hit .300 at the big league level, but if given 400-500 at-bats the SB’s will be 50-plus. I don’t see him getting enough ABs this year to warrant a draft selection.

Projection: 200 ABs/3 HRs/20 RBIs/20 SBs/.275/.325/.390

Michael Brantley OF – Cleveland Indians

ADP: N/R

Opening Day Assignment: Starting LF in CLE

Analysis: With the success of guys like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, and Rajai Davis last year; owners are going to want a look at Brantley, who fits the same mold. Tons of speed, gets on base, but doesn’t do much else. The good thing about Brantley is that the starting LF job is his and he will get ABs. He will be a great cheap steals guy for you and is worth a flyer around the 20 th pick in AL-Only leagues.

Projection: 5 HRs/40 RBIs/30 SBs/.275/.350/.375'

Ian Desmond SS – Washington Nationals

ADP: 212 (NL Only)  Earliest: 198  Drafted: 15.0%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting SS in WAS

Analysis: Desmond inherits the SS spot left open when Cristian Guzman was moved to 2B. The wild card will be if the Nats end up signing Orlando Hudson, which would crush Desmond’s value for 2010. In 82 at-bats last year, he put up four HRs and 12 RBIs, while hitting .280. Sample size is small, but it was enough to make him the front-runner for the starting SS job. Desmond has shown pretty good pop in the minor leagues, thus, it isn’t of the question for him to be a 10-15 HR guy.

He comes in around the 12th best SS in the NL, so you are looking at a MI play only. His draft position is a tad low, and I think if you reach on him a round or two early it will be a good move.

Projection: 400 ABs/.270/.330/.435/10 HRs/55 RBIs/15 SBs

David Freese 3B – St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 332  Earliest: 272  Drafted: 2.1%

Opening Day Assignment: Starting 3B in STL

Analysis: Freese was supposed to be the starting 3B last year for the Cardinals when Troy Glaus went down with an injury. It never happened and everyone that grabbed him in NL-only leagues (myself included) dropped him just as fast too.

Freese is an older prospect at 26 years of age, but there are no roadblocks – so it’s sink or swim for him in 2010. When looking at Freese there are some things to like and some red flags.

The Good – He’s hit .300 at every level in the minors with strong OPS numbers.

The Bad – His BABIP is ridiculous; mostly over .350; the K% over 20%

“The Bad” tells me is he’s more likely to be a .265 hitter at the big league level; not .300. If everything goes right, Freese could be a Top 15 3B in 2010, which would put in that 250 ADP range. Freese is a good candidate for NL-only leagues at 3B or CI spots.

Projection: 500 ABs/18 HRs/70 RBIs/.265/.335/.440

Closer Look: Scouting Jose Julio Ruiz (1B, Free Agent, Cuba)

Time to dig a little deeper on Jose Julio Ruiz. Again, we must thank our Cuban Baseball expert, Cubano from the Cuban Ball Players blog.

José Julio has held tryouts with the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays and San Francisco Giants among other interested teams.

In a addition to that tidbit, Cubano offers some comparable statistics that pit Ruiz against some of the more prominent sluggers in Cuban Baseball. The one that caught my eye was Angels first baseman, Kendry Morales.

During Kendry’s three seasons in Cuba, his homerun frequency 23.5, meaning he hit a homerun every 23 to 24 at-bats. When you compare that to what Jose Julio Ruiz did in five seasons (40 AB/HR), I can infer that Morales has more power than Ruiz. In fact, in 2009, Morales hit a homerun once in every 20.5 at-bats for the Halos. Ruiz, at 26-years-old, is coming into Major League Baseball a more polished player than his countryman, but he doesn’t seem to have the same penchant for hitting the long ball. 

Again, I must note that until this guy signs with a team, it will be difficult to predict his impact for 2010. In the meantime, here’s a list of 1B with homerun frequencies (based on 2009 stats) that you might compare to Jose Julio Ruiz: Nick Johnson (57.1); James Loney (44.3); Jorge Cantu (36.6); and Todd Helton (36.3). Certainly, if Ruiz can hit for average or get on base like Helton or Johnson, skills which he did show in Cuba, he’s certainly worth tracking throughout the spring.

Look, I have little doubt that this guy is going to see regular playing time for a big league club during 2010, but I’m not convinced - yet - that Jose Julio Ruiz is more than a supporting player for your fantasy squad. Spring Training is going to be crucial for him.

Fantasy Hot Stove Heats Up: Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Yankees Pull Off Seven Player Trade!

Contributed by Jeff Clemens

I know you’ve been patiently waiting for MLBFP’s fantasy breakdown of the first blockbuster deal from MLB’s Winter Meetings. The waiting is over.

The Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks have agreed to a trade that would send Detroit center fielder Curtis Granderson to New York, Tigers right hander Edwin Jackson and Yankees right hander Ian Kennedy to Arizona, and D-backs pitchers Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, along with Yankees prospect Austin Jackson and lefty Phil Coke, to Detroit.

Let’s get to fantasy business.

New York Yankees: OF Curtis Granderson (from Detroit)

Granderson, 28, hit .249 with 30 home runs, 71 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in 160 games for the Tigers in 2009. His batting average plummeted from .302 in 2007 to .280 in 2008 to .249 last year. Granderson does have issues with lefties, hitting just .183 in 180 at-bats against the crafty southpaws. Bottom line, Granderson is a player who will hit 30 home runs & 20 stolen bases. However, considering the fact he will be hitting in New York with a short porch in right and the sick lineup surrounding him, I see marginal uptick in his fantasy value on the horizon. 

Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Edwin Jackson (from Detroit) & RHP Ian Kennedy (from New York)

Jackson, 26, is coming off a breakout season. The 6-3, 210-pounder was 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA while striking out 161 in '09 with Detroit. Jackson did struggle his last 92 innings, posting a 5.07 ERA and giving up 17 home runs. Let’s be honest, it’s that atrocious second half numbers that opened the door for a deal. Jackson’s strikeouts will go north and his ERA will go south in National League. Despite the nega-hype surrounding Jackson, jump on him in all formats. C’mon, does anyone doubt the stuff?

Kennedy, 25, has struggled with injuries in each of the last two seasons. In May, he was diagnosed with an aneurysm near his right shoulder and underwent surgery. The right hander went to the Arizona Fall League and posted a 4.25 ERA over 29 2/3 innings. He struck out 28 and walked five. Kennedy is expected to take the fourth slot in Arizona’s rotation. You are looking at an NL-only sleeper.    

Detroit Tigers: OF Austin Jackson & LHP Phil Coke (from New York); RHP Max Scherzer & LHP Daniel Schlereth (from Arizona)

Jackson, 22, has the skills to be an everyday center fielder at the Major League level despite what my “humble” MLBFP Executive Editor (Bill Root) thinks of him. He hit .300 last season at Triple A Scranton with 23 doubles, 4 home runs, 65 RBIs and 24 steals. While the power stats aren’t there, he does have some pop that will begin to rear its pretty head as he develops. I am expecting a response from Root because of these positive comments – he’s a mega-hater.

Coke, 27, Coke was 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances. While he pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings in the AL playoffs, he gave up two runs over 1 1/3 innings in the World Series. He’s fantasy waste – move along.  

Scherzer, 25, went 9-11 with a 4.12 ERA in 30 starts for Arizona last season. Remember the name! While most say he needs a third pitch. He went on to strike out 66 in 56 innings in his rookie year, and 174 over 170 1/3 innings last year, his full season in the rotation. Scherzer has 12-15 wins written all over him and will be the third pitcher in the Tigers rotation behind Verlander and Porcello. Just remember who led you in his direction.  

Schlereth, 23, made his major league debut this year and went 1-4 with a 5.89 ERA in 21 relief appearances, with 22 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. He did have Tommy John surgery his senior year of high school. So, while he doesn't throw as hard as he once used too, he's still a lefty who throws around 93-94 mph. This lefty has the stuff to be a strong set-up man, or shaky closer. Stash him away in your keeper leagues because of his speculative value.  

#13 MLB Fantasy Prospect: Aroldis Chapman (SP, Free Agent, Cuba) - Scouting Report

It’s not easy for me to place Aroldis Chapman in MLBFP’s Top 25. This Cuban defect could easily become a prospect reject.

That said, even though Chapman is as raw as a diaper-rashed baby’s bottom and has yet to sign with a major league squad, he deserves a spot on his list for one reason – his mouth-watering upside. We are talking about a 21-year-old (yeah, we all want to examine the birth certificate) with a 6-4, 179-pound projectable frame and the ability to hit triple digits on the radar gun. Shoot, even the biggest Chapman-haters can’t deny that his age, body-type, and arm trigger a reaction from the salivary glands.

Chapman is primarily a three-pitch-pony. He’s armed with a mid-90s fastball, late-moving slider and a developing curveball. The lanky southpaw throws a splitter and a variety of changeups as well, but those pitches are works-in-progress. Chapman’s already has the fastball velocity and nastilicious slider to have some big league success. After watching some tape on this dude, I’m convinced the slider could become his signature in the bigs rather than his heater. The pitch is extremely deceptive because it’s on an almost-identical plane as the fastball until it sends left-handed hitters fishing and back-doors right-handed batters.

Why is Chapman’s downside as dangerous as his upside? Well, the Cuban sensation still hasn’t mastered his control or command. Chapman has been known to go on walk-fests and tends to miss his spots even when he’s around the plate. For example, Chapman has had the following BB/9 rates in Cuba over the past four years: 9.0, 5.5, 4.5 and 4.7. These rates will be even higher in the majors given the transition from Cuban baseball to MLB. Trust me, major league hitters will patiently force him to find the plate, and will hammer him if he consistently makes mistakes in the zone. Chapman needs time to become a pitcher rather than a thrower; his velocity alone won’t make him a fantasy force.

There have also been questions about Chapman’s maturity and mental makeup. Can he handle the pressure of the mammoth contract once he signs? Will he melt on the mound when he experiences adversity? Will he work hard enough to become a stud pitcher? These are all still open questions. Chapman needs to plant himself on a team with a top-notch pitching coach, who can perfect his mechanics/off-speed pitches, and supporting veterans who can look over his shoulder.

Chapman is reportedly looking for a $40-60 million deal. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, and Toronto Blue Jays have all expressed interest in the international free agent. Chapman recently fired his agent, Edwin Mejia, who was deep in negotiations with many teams. Chapman has replaced Mejia with the Hendricks brothers to finish off a deal. This is a hint he may be headed to the Bronx because of the Hendricks brothers’ deep-rooted relationship with the Yanks. Our man, Scoops Sheridan, predicted back in July that Chapman would end up in pinstripes. We will soon find out if he was on the mark.

It’s obvious I have major reservations about Chapman. In fact, there’s a real possibility he only ends up slightly better than fellow Cuban, Jose Contreras, if he remains a starting pitcher. Yikes. Nevertheless, you can’t pass on him in limited-pool keeper league drafts because of his projectable body, power repertoire, and enormous ceiling. Further, even if Chapman is moved to the back of the bullpen because he can’t develop a solid third pitch, he will still provide great value in most formats as dominant closer.

Chapman will have initial struggles. He is more of a project prospect than a blue-chipper. You need to have long-term patience and a pro-risk mentality to acquire him. Don’t overpay for Chapman in trades because of the hovering red flags, but scoop him up in keeper league drafts if he’s there for the taking.

Check out the video on Chapman below. Future ace? The Yankees’ dominant closer in 2015? Overrated and overhyped No. 4 starter? Let’s hear your thoughts.

Detroit Tigers Sizing-Up Future at Second Base: Scott Sizemore in 2010?

According to The Detroit Free Press, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said Thursday that if free agent second baseman Placido Polanco moves on, minor leaguer Scott Sizemore will most likely replace him:

Sizemore, who turns 25 on Jan. 4, was a fifth-round draft pick three years ago. He has climbed through the system, and this season was named the organization's minor league position player of the year.

Splitting this season between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo, Sizemore batted a combined .308 with 17 home runs and 69 RBIs.

"We think he's ready to play," Dombrowski said at his end-of-season session with the local media. "He's a good hitter. He's got a short stroke. He's not a long-swing guy."

Like Polanco, Sizemore bats right-handed. "He's probably got a little more pop (than Polanco), but he doesn't make as much contact," Dombrowski said.

Polanco hit 10 homers this season, his high in four full seasons with the Tigers. But as usual he was about as hard to strike out as anyone in the league. Sizemore fanned once every 5 1/2 at-bats.

"He's a solid second baseman," Dombrowski said of Sizemore. "He still has some things to learn around the bag, but he's been playing there for a while. Now, he's not as defensively sure-handed as (Polanco). I don't know if anybody in baseball is."

Back in July, I thought Sizemore might get a September call-up, but that never happened. The following are my thoughts from mid-season:

Scott Sizemore has gone from middling prospect to the second baseman of the future for the Tigers.  Although Baseball America (BA) has him ranked as Detroit’s 7th best prospect, he had never shown the type offensive potential he is showing now.  In fact, it was widely thought that his Double-A teammate, Cale Iorg, the Tigers’ 3rd best prospect per BA, would reach the Majors before Sizemore. 

After torching the AA-Eastern League for Erie (.307 AVG, .937 OPS in 228 ABs), Sizemore is continuing to flash for AAA-Toledo of the International League (.317, .897 in 85 ABs).  He only played in 53 games last year due to a broken wrist he sustained in July.  Looks to us like Scott’s making up for lost time. 

With current Tigers 2B Placido Polanco (.255 AVG, .690 OPS) in the last year of his contract, and Iorg struggling with AA pitching (.219 BA, 80 SO, 16 BB, 278 ABs), one has to think Sizemore will get a good look in September.  At the least, his excellent on-base skills won’t hurt your team if you need a middle infielder down the stretch.

Y’all should know this is a situation MLBFP will be monitoring closely.